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Here Comes the Schmally...

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 12/23/2008 01:12:00 AM
Much to every bears anger and dismay in this little volume patch of nothingness, today's action took a trip to the North Pole, starting at the magic time of 3:30 all the way until closing bell.  Everyone's buying again!  Things are amazing!  The market is curing itself!  The Santa Claus Rally is here! Yay!

Right?

WRONG.

Just another wasteful, low volume, trash buy trend from a support level earlier in the month after December's Smack-In-The-Face Week at the beginning of the month.  Is this anything to get exited over?  No.  One thing is for certain, and that is Financials won't pull the market up off of it's rear until Wednesday, so if you're shorting Financials, wait until tomorrow's close to buy.  My call?  Short the hell out of Oil.  Easier said than done, for oil stocks' exposure to heavy market selling (as heavy as it gets this week, at least) makes it a tough trade to make.  My CVX buy in @ $69 went through today, and I'm going to be a holder up until closing bell Friday.  Market takes a dump next week, mark my words.

Something interesting I noticed was the ProShares Financial 2x, SKF.  This thing moves like Jesus Lizards walk on water; fast and unexpectedly.  Caution is the name of the game with this sucker, and today it decided to hit a Fibo Level of 23.6%, or $119.31 @ 3:00.  At this point in today's trading, SKF was still stair-stepping its way to mimicking old trends topping it out @ $140.  Will this happen?  After today's cliff dive at the end of the day with a nothing momentum, relatively high RVI, and some OB signals, my prediction for the SKF is that it'll move back down to a $105-$110 level by Friday, and that's why my stocks get sold and the SKF gets bought, 50% Cash, 25% SKF, 25% stocks.  Get prepped for next week now, because if you don't start watching trends that occur before your very eyes now, you'll miss out on the top off the market on Friday.  With the way intra-day is these days though, my predictions have a very good chance of being wrong.

OPEN POSITIONS:
  • ENER @ $23.09
  • CVX @ $69.00
  • AAPL @ $86.80 (I swooped it up a little early, but I have high hopes for it over the course of this week)
  • 20% Cash
WATCHLIST:
  • C @ $6.66 (A devilish number for a devilish stock)
  • RBS @ $12.00
  • SKF @ $105.50 (Down the road, of course)
  • WFC @ $25.16 (Lower-High set on Dec. 18, providing us with a bearish trend and a Dec. Support of $25.16)
  • GT @ $5.05 (Rubber Sector is booming this month, up 26%.  When the car manufacturers begin to turn up, I will be all over shorting GT)
CHARTS:

AAPL 60 Day

AAPL (Nov. 24 - Dec. 22)

CVX 3 Month

CVX 60 Day

ENER 30 Day

C 20 Day

SKF 30Day

GT 60 Day

Caution is the name of the game.  Just because it's low volatility doesn't mean that it's a good thing...  As always:

Keep Tradin'


ZM

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MJTT Disclaimer

I am not, by any means, a financial analyst. All posts and tickers mentioned in them are my opinions and my opinions only. If you buy and sell ANY tickers because of my recommendation, you are trading at your own risk.

Zachary A. Musso - MJTT Owner/Author

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Fully Discretionary, Speculative Futures Trader - Technical Analysis Junkie - Bentley University Class of 2014.

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