Until then, Happy New Year, and as always...
Keep Tradin'
PS: THE RALLY IS OVER!!! DON'T let CNBC tell you otherwise.
ZM
I'm 100% Cash for Friday. Made a wonderful gain from the CVX trade (sold @ $74.55), but screwed up on the BAC trade (read it wrong and dumped it @ $13.19 before it went to $14). I have a very bearish outlook for Friday and Monday of next week. January scares me for multiple reasons, some of them not even market related! All of the iETFs are at my buy points, but I don't want to buy them just yet; let's see what Friday morning brings...
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5 Things:
- If the $SPX keeps on the track that it currently is on (starting at the clock stroke of 2:00pm), expect this rally to be over; 3 Days, big gains, and then January... Anyone feeling Friday being absolutely atrocious
- XLF broke the 200 Day and is STILL INCREASING... But wait Moose, why aren't you freaking out even more? BECAUSE when the XLF hits a 200 Day, which it hasn't broken on a 20 Day chart since the LAST rally, it drops like a damn stone. It breaks away, and then fails miserably. With all the write-downs that are approaching EVERY bank in January, people that aren't taking profit are either long for 10 to 20 years or just flat out retarded.
- iETFs are getting slammed right now and I can guarentee it will continue until the market closes, slightly increasing towards the end of the market. ** Beginning to look at FAZ, SKF, SRS, and SDS much closer than I was before. ** (More on that later)
- The $TRIN has cement shoes on as we speak.
- Watch Scarface and have a cup of coffee.
Keep Tradin'
ZM
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It was Apple on Monday and half way into Tueday, but do the fact that the stock slacked so bad yesterday, I decided to dump my position in that and use the money from it to buy into DRYS at 3:52pm yesterday right before market close. DRYS was stagnant all day, reacting to nothing at all. The thing that threw me for a loop was that on the second day of the first $SPX rally of the month (the Dec. 15-17 Rally) DRYS did the same thing and then exploded. I picked it up at $9.64 and dumped it a little after market open at $10.92. Good trade if I do say so myself:
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DRYS 20Day
If it stays stagnant today like it did on the third day of the rally, it may make another push to $14. Do I want to take that risk? Not really, I just made 14% off of it and don't feel like blowing that. We'll have to see about that one.
The $SPX still has the chance to go to 910 right now, for the rally just went into explode mode. Watch for a dip in the next couple of hours. If you see one developing, don't think that the rally is over; it's just taking a Reality Dip. Plus, if it takes a dip and survives, going back up to whatever level it was at before it dipped and then some, the rally has officially ended. Watch the $SPX!!!
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$SPX 20Day
Updates later... As for now...
Keep Tradin'
ZM
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$SPX 20Day
Well look at that... Same pattern, only more drawn out and with a more prevalent volatility level (which makes sense due to the overall low volume we've been experiencing seeing that nobody wants to trade this market and have closed their books for their year). There were a ton of stocks that were up today, and I kid you not, the big oil companies had a nice sized gain today.
Where there is a rally, however, there is a failure. Right now, we have a couple hours of the rally left, and after tomorrow, I am starting to heavily consider a position in the SKF, SRS, and DUG. Here's my breakdown for what has a high possibility of happening in the nearer future:
- SRS: With the Real Estate market being driven into the ground with a rather large bulldozer, it's only a matter of time until the January-March Housing Bubble pops, allowing the SRS to get back to the $100 level. Getting it at $50 is an absolute steal, and the worse that can happen is that we stay in this channel and sell it at it's resistance level of $60.
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SRS 20Day
- SKF: The Financial market can only drive a market for so long, and GS hit it's $80 "explosion zone" where the stock goes off the wall for a day or so and then gets beaten with the Ugly Bear Stick. $105 is what I'm looking at for the SKF, even though it's a little higher than its current support of $100-$101.
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SKF 20Day
- DUG: When volume begins to pick up again, oil will fall from the attic to the basement, flop around like a fish for a little bit, and then go from the basement to the earth's crust. I heard some random guy they've had on CNBC over the past two days say one of the greatest things yesterday, and that was this: "The supply's there, the demand's not, and when trader's begin to realize that, oil is in some serious trouble." Enough said.
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DUG 20Day
*** Don't forget the $TRIN. It's ready to explode up, because it's beginning to decrease in long, drawn out, prevalent down ticks, which means that this thing is going to move positive very soon. Look for levels of .36 as an indicator to begin purchasing the iETFs ***
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$TRIN 30Day
Almose done with this rally, so keep your eyes peeled to the ticker... The iETFs are almost ready to eat, they're just not out of the oven yet. Watch your trades, keep your head on straight, and WHATEVER you do, do NOT get caught with those skivies around your ankles!!! And as always...
Keep Tradin'
PS: Depending on anything special that may come out tonight, I might update... Stay tuned.
ZM
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And then I'm shorting some more. I don't care if you don't like what iETFs are all about, when they're damaged goods and have the potential to go up in large quantities, you pick them up to make money. Don't want to make money? Don't be in the stock market. You'll fail here if you don't want to make money.
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Big institutional buy spike at the end of the trading day for BAC, and because this was on my watchlist, I decided to pick it up @ $12.98. So cheap it's pathetic. With high expectations of the MER/BAC merger, people will pick it up until they merge and they die like all the others. After this week, you wouldn't catch me dead with a position in anything. I'm hounding the market like none other.
Don't forget: I have positions in AAPL, CVX, and BAC; 75% short, 25% cash. I'm watching this $SPX upward movement like a hawk watches its dinner. Don't think it'll last, because it won't.
If I like it enough and it hits $5.20, I'll buy into GT. Rubber productions are up for the month of December by 5% from the month of November, and, if you scroll down to yesterday's post, @ that level, GT would be ready for a positive move through its trends from the beginning of November.
What do I have to say? Bring it on and DON'T get caught with your pants around your ankles... No one wants to see that anyway... And as always:
Keep Tradin'
PS: Watch for a move to @ least $92 in AAPL.
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ZM
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And I feel fine!
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Hope everyone had am enjoyable weekend. It's time, however, to begin a new week, and soon enough, a new year. For now, however, we'll stick to what to trade all the way up to the time of the New Year on market close Wednesday. Let's get started:
On a sector run I had on Saturday evening, I began tearing through areas that have some pushing left in them before the market tanks again in January. For starters, the biggest indicators you can look to for guidance this week are your momentum indicators and volume indicators. I am currently using a regular Momentum indicator and a regular Money Flow indicator as well. These will be vital for two sectors that will either be big-time popping or big-time dropping, these two being Coal and Money Center Banks (Foreign and Domestic). Throughout Saturday, I decided to go bargain hunting on small-cap stocks I could eat up and spit out during the week. In these sectors, I found some reliable bets, and within those reliable bets, I found stocks that are certain for popping this week. Tickers I like in these sectors are:
- ACI (Arch Coal Inc.)
- PCX (Patriot Coal Corp.)
- RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland)
- BAC (Bank of America)
Pending momentum and volume tomorrow, we'll see how these stocks will do throughout the rest of the week. Let's back track a little and take a look at the SKF. The SKF did absolutely NOTHING productive last week, and it rounded itself off, letting me in on a couple of little clues for some sell-offs that have a high possibility of occuring tomorrow (again, pending volume and momentum). No one is out to, "change markets," or, "bank some maddddddd coin," they're out there to try to make some more positive percentages to close out the year on a high note before wiping the slate clean. iETFs are a territory not to be reckoned with... YET. There will come a day where I will say buy buy buy and cash in on those babies, but this week doesn't seem like the correct week for this to occur in. Anything is possible, however, and many of us learned that the hard way. Watch the $TRIN for activity, and if there is heavy activity with a negative market, guess who's playing the iETFs that day?
Continuing on with the sector ripping, I found some interesting stats that lead me to believe some stocks in these sectors might be ready for a pop as well. Below is the sector information I found, and under that will be stocks pertaining to that sector that are at fair prices and are prepping for a pop:
- Shipping Sector: +7.46% (20 Day Span), +2.9% (5 Day Span)
- DRYS
- Oil and Gas Sectors: +9% AVG. (20 Day Span), +2.5% AVG. (5 Day Span)
- CVX, NOV, SLB
- Steel Sector: +15% (20 Day Span), +2.65% (5 Day Span)
- STLD
These are three sectors I am a serious fan of due to their potential for a positive push this week. There is, however, one more sector that I would like to go into a little more detail about rather than just posting it under a bullet, this sector being Silver. Silver took a royal whooping in the past month and a half, and for the actual commodity itself to struggle how it has been for a week to two weeks now is absurd. It's time for Silver, just like Oil, to make a rather large short-term rally before the market, once again, goes into the trash can hand-in-hand with, "Oscar the Economy Grouch." One stock in particular that I see a push for is PAAS. This stock is TOO Cheap, and it got whooped TOO much, for at the beginning of the year PAAS had a price of $44.10. The stock is sitting pretty on a closing price from Friday of $15.97.
Below are the weekly charts with some price ranges, retracements, channel plays, pops, drops, and so on and so forth. Be prepared to have you mind and socks blown, because I've provided so many charts it'll make your head spin. Within each chart are some explanations as to why I like the stock given. Check it out:
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ACI
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ENER
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RBS
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PCX
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PAAS
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WFC
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UXG
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STLD
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SLB
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So there you have it, your weekly picks in a nutshell with your T.A. ideas and mindset slammed into your face like a lawsuit in Mr. Madoff's. I will be updating intra-day tomorrow, and I will also be giving you some insight on my stock pick of the week, AAPL. Good luck tomorrow, and don't forget the Mom. and Vol.! As always...
Keep Tradin'
ZM
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As I sat beginning to report my weekly stock findings and my preparation for the week of next last evening, I happened to be interrupted by my very first earthquake. Yes, an earthquake, in Pennsylvania. For all of you people in California, you might all be laughing hysterically at me for my measily 3.3 Richter Scaled earthquake, but to tell the rest of you who have never been in an earthquake before, it was one of the scariest things to experience. I do not look forward to my next one.
Because this interrupted my night, I did not have a chance to do my weekly wrap-up nor did I have time to look at stocks, and because I have better things to do with my life today with the family than to sit in front of a computer screen and write about how ridiculous this past week was, it will have to wait.
Some food for thought, before I forget it:
Do NOT think we're in a bull market because we are NOT!! If anything we're in a channel period where we're bumping back and forth from $SPX retracement level to $SPX retracement level!!
More on that later... For now, I leave you with David Dietze (http://www.cnbc.com/id/28379638), who is going to get whipsawed with his bull market positions he'll take in January... PAH! He will burn and so will his clients.
Enjoy the weekend, see ya tomorrow, and as always...
Keep Tradin'
ZM
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Didn't post last night because I was out late and was too tired to do anything (plus, four hours of sleep over two days and three exams on Monday before break will do that to you). Intra-day is looking boring, indices are holding at decent ranges, but aren't doing anything like popping or dropping. Sticking with my positions in CVX, ENER, and AAPL, with AAPL and CVX beginning to form a tiny double-bottom, ENER forming a wedge.
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Happy Holidays!
Something I like to look at to tell if there will be recommended shorting action is none other but the $TRIN, or the NYSE Short Term Trade Index for those of you who don't know. It's an interesting "tool" to use, and if you look at it carefully, it may help you trade the iETFs. Check out the spike patterns on it and you'll be able to see how they intermingle with the strong up and down moves of iETFs like the SKF, SRS, FAZ, DUG, and many more.
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$TRIN 30 Day
Another thing I'm sticking to are my guns. I still haver 22% in cash and the 78% in shorts, and I'm doing this because I feel confident for a rally to appear Friday and possibly a little into next week. Again, going into next week with positions is risky, because your shorts might shank you on Monday morning. Be careful, patient, and watch for those trends.
In the meantime, here's something to consider:
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CVX 20 Day w/ Intra-Day
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$SPX 20 Day w/ Intra-Day
Happy Holidays!Enjoy the time with your families tomorrow, everyone needs it! As always...
Keep Tradin'
ZM
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Much to every bears anger and dismay in this little volume patch of nothingness, today's action took a trip to the North Pole, starting at the magic time of 3:30 all the way until closing bell. Everyone's buying again! Things are amazing! The market is curing itself! The Santa Claus Rally is here! Yay!
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Right?
WRONG.
Just another wasteful, low volume, trash buy trend from a support level earlier in the month after December's Smack-In-The-Face Week at the beginning of the month. Is this anything to get exited over? No. One thing is for certain, and that is Financials won't pull the market up off of it's rear until Wednesday, so if you're shorting Financials, wait until tomorrow's close to buy. My call? Short the hell out of Oil. Easier said than done, for oil stocks' exposure to heavy market selling (as heavy as it gets this week, at least) makes it a tough trade to make. My CVX buy in @ $69 went through today, and I'm going to be a holder up until closing bell Friday. Market takes a dump next week, mark my words.
Something interesting I noticed was the ProShares Financial 2x, SKF. This thing moves like Jesus Lizards walk on water; fast and unexpectedly. Caution is the name of the game with this sucker, and today it decided to hit a Fibo Level of 23.6%, or $119.31 @ 3:00. At this point in today's trading, SKF was still stair-stepping its way to mimicking old trends topping it out @ $140. Will this happen? After today's cliff dive at the end of the day with a nothing momentum, relatively high RVI, and some OB signals, my prediction for the SKF is that it'll move back down to a $105-$110 level by Friday, and that's why my stocks get sold and the SKF gets bought, 50% Cash, 25% SKF, 25% stocks. Get prepped for next week now, because if you don't start watching trends that occur before your very eyes now, you'll miss out on the top off the market on Friday. With the way intra-day is these days though, my predictions have a very good chance of being wrong.
OPEN POSITIONS:
- ENER @ $23.09
- CVX @ $69.00
- AAPL @ $86.80 (I swooped it up a little early, but I have high hopes for it over the course of this week)
- 20% Cash
WATCHLIST:
- C @ $6.66 (A devilish number for a devilish stock)
- RBS @ $12.00
- SKF @ $105.50 (Down the road, of course)
- WFC @ $25.16 (Lower-High set on Dec. 18, providing us with a bearish trend and a Dec. Support of $25.16)
- GT @ $5.05 (Rubber Sector is booming this month, up 26%. When the car manufacturers begin to turn up, I will be all over shorting GT)
CHARTS:
AAPL 60 Day
AAPL (Nov. 24 - Dec. 22)
CVX 3 Month
CVX 60 Day
ENER 30 Day
C 20 Day
SKF 30Day
GT 60 Day
Caution is the name of the game. Just because it's low volatility doesn't mean that it's a good thing... As always:
Keep Tradin'
ZM
Seeing that tomorrow is not only a Monday but a Monday before some big Econ. Data is released, tomorrow is pretty important. Looking at the breakdown of the Econ. Data, the one major thing number could break the market from its current pattern of, "Going Stagnant and Not Caring," is the GDP. It's supposed to be down more than its 3.7% for the 3rd Quarter, and that may cause the market to go into a tailspin, the question being when.
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This is where Market Sentiment comes into play. The Market Sentiment indicator over a 60-Day period for the $SPX is beginning to decline, which I expected throughout a period of worthless trading up until the final two hours of every day last week. The past week of trading was so back and forth that if you weren't hedged, there was a good chance that you lost money. There was a crucial support level of 887 on the $SPX, and we hit it on Friday, closing at 887.88. Interestingly enough, this should set Monday up to be a pretty boring trading day up until the final two hours, where people will be prepping themselves from the news they gathered throughout the day about Tuesday's data.
Although many are saying people have closed their books for 2008, I have not. I will keep trading all the way into next week, and I will make money. Below is a chart of the $SPX over a 30-Day period, and to tell you the truth, we're setting ourselves up for a Head-And-Shoulders pattern, making our third top this coming Friday, and getting slammed the week after. The dollar says it, gold says it, the Treasuries say it, and oil is going to be saying it by Wednesday.
How will the market react to the bad news that is imminent for Tuesday? The traders want this absurd Santa Claus rally so badly, that they will do anything in their power to get it. Therefore, people will buy buy buy this week, and then sell sell sell for the final week of December. Why? Because the Floor will finally realize that they can't evade the bad data, and that Q1 of the New Year is going to be a very ugly month for the United States' Economy (Put it in your books).
What will I be doing until Wednesday? Simple. Oil lagged in large quantities last week, and the one major oil seller that got slapped in the offshore rig was CVX. Closing @ 70.85 on Friday, CVX had a losing day four of last week's five days. Disgusting? Think about it. When a stock gets slammed like that, and when the market is setting up for a head-fake upward, who gets the Gold Medal these days? Below is a 60-Day on CVX with some added effects as well:
Notice the circles and the rectangles. The rectangles indicate where the stock followed the bullish price channel set up after it's October tank, where as the circles indicate where the stock didn't follow the price channel at all. If the Head-and-Shoulders of the $SPX occurs like predicted, this price channel will be eliminated due to two more circles being formed on the CVX charts; one with the breakdown of the channel occuring now and one that doesn't hit the top of the channel occuring by Friday. This indicates a huge bearish swing, decreasing the stock value in a heartbeat. Scary? Think of the already damaged oil companies that will have to liquidate big time throughout the month of January. Booyah? I think not.
After tomorrow's session, I'll only have two definite positions:
- CVX (which is at a limit buy of $69.00)
- ENER @ $23.09 (Long-Term)
The rest of my portfolio is cash. Another position I may take on is Apple, for after it's abuse last week from the Tech Report that came out, Apple should pop through the "Santa Claus" thing. Plus, who wouldn't want a piece of the pie when Apple's sitting pretty @ $90.00? Ideal buy would be at the beginning of December gap-up support level of $86.50, but you may have to settle with what Pre-Market gives you.
Other areas of interest are how the SKF and SRS do. With these two, I'll be tag teaming AIG and RBS, which are both sucking wind due to the bank downgrades, national and global financial bailouts, and the headaching rush to refinance. With all this and more, we'll see how the boys on the Floor deal with the, "visions of Econ. Data dancing in their heads." Otherwise...
Keep Tradin'
ZM
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Where winners go to be born, and losers go to die...
Where we rule the market, and the market doesn't even think twice about ruling us...
Where you are number one...
Where technical trading thrives...
Where swing trades chew novices up and spit them out.
But most importantly...
Where money is made.
--- Happy Trading! ---
ZM
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