- FAZ: -$37.67, -37.9%
- NEM: -$2.76, -7.3%
Most notable gainers in the watch list are as follows:
- FAS: +$1.03, +38.1%
- NUE: +$4.99, +15.8%
- GS: +$11.33, +15.3%
I ended up in front of my computer around 1, and saw what was going down. I initially thought to myself, wow, this is incredible, and then I began to investigate what caused it. Through my research, it seemed as though Barney Frank actually did something good for the American public and the United States Stock Market, as he and his cronies on Capital Hill are in discussion about, "Heavily revising the Mark-to-Market accounting system and possibly reinstating the Up-Tick Rule back into our markets." Yet another man of power spoke up today, as Vikram Pandit of Citi told everyone that this quarter is the best he's seen for Citi since 2007.
Although I've heard rumors after hours of a "bottom sinking in," I must tell you that this pop we had today will be erased by the middle of NEXT week (not this week). I have no thoughts that the bears are going away, and to tell you the truth, I feel that today was a "buy the news" day. Another theory I have about today was the thought of traders being sick of oversold levels. We got to a point where oversold didn't matter, and that was when FAZ broke through its $85 resistance level on March 4 and kept going, not stopping until $115 was met. Traders have finally snapped out of it, and they've realized if they keep selling, the market will tank to unheard, unseen, and unbelievable levels.
So now we're stuck. We're going to rally some more, but when will we stop? Only time will tell. Allow me to grace you with bullet points of my mistakes today:
- I didn't have market buy orders in for AAPL and GS off the open because I wasn't sure how the market would play out today (and I knew I would be away for most of the day, leaving me exposed without stop points if the market turned on me). Sadly, I have no idea that Capital Hill would rain godly words down upon the market to make it spring board an average of
- Selling out of UYM @ $9.25. I took a gain, but it's not smart. This is the largest gain in the $SPX since November, so why I didn't hang on I have no idea. This is a classic case of, "Beginner's Trigger-Finger Syndrome," or BTFS for short.
- I bought FAZ @ $69.43, only to receive a bitched-up loss of -$3.46, stopping out at $65.97. This was a mistake on my part, for the VIX wasn't too good of an indicator today and even at my sell-point, the sucker reversed for a massive up-tick. The $TRIN didn't work either, as it increased from 11:45am on. I even pulled out my $UVOL/$DVOL relationship today at my time of trading, but didn't time those right. This trade was a failure no doubt a 15 yard, failure to advance penalty on the offense, as the Quarterback (myself) screwed up big time.
- GLD and USO have gone dead weight, and therefore I have a market order sell for GLD tomorrow and a USO stop @ $27.60, taking on a +$0.21 gain if I get stopped out. Should have sold off the open yesterday.
All in all, the beginning of this week has definitely shanked me. I have learned the bear market too well, all because I began trading in a bear market. Each time I've screwed up in the past, it's because I've been bullish, and I've made some good trading rules that I've followed when I want to go bullish. It's now time for me to make rules for the bearish game, as I clearly don't have any risk management for my bearishness. My mistakes will be added on to my "It's February" post rules, which will be edited and re-posted tomorrow night.
Until then, keep your longs that you had tomorrow until you see volume weakness. Watch the $SPX closely, for it's nearing a resistance level, as seen in the chart below:
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$SPX 30 Day, 60 Minute
ZM
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Much appreciation for the run down on sentiment and review of the day yesterday. Looks like your stops helped you avoid some big declines in FAZ.
Next week the Fed and Geithner are suppose to reveal more details to help the banks. So buying the rumors and idea that the market has needed a relief from selling pressure. Does seem like financial sector could benefit from some heavy lifting tho. Meaning, i'd like to see some tangible relief that has some power to lift them up off the floor.
Great chart btw. Where do you see us in a month, over or under 820?
Thanks for the run down and review on yesterday.
Thanks for the compliments breur, and right you are! I want to see move volume in all honesty. Yesterday's volume was fantastic, but today's lagged a little. I made some more mental mistakes today, but also made some good pick ups that I will highlight in tonight's post.
When the Fed talks, it scares me. I think tomorrow will be a big day for the market with the accounting principles being fiddled with by congress, ultimately coming down to what most traders think of a heavy revision (not an elimination) of mark-to-market.
Only time will tell about the $SPX. In a month, I foresee the next problem not only being in credit cards, but a second wave of a housing problem. By the end of April, however, I feel we should be somewhere in the 750 to 770 range, but then again, I may be very wrong in saying that.
Good luck with your trading!