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The PPT
Showing newest 11 of 41 posts from 01/01/2009 - 02/01/2009. Show older posts
Showing newest 11 of 41 posts from 01/01/2009 - 02/01/2009. Show older posts

New MJTT Schedules

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 1/29/2009 09:05:00 PM 0 comments
With the upcoming month, I am becoming busier, and the busier I get, the worse that I do.  I am trading on days I have 100% conviction that my trades will be accurate.  I am waiting for new lows in the $SPX, because trust me, they are coming.  I will be trading next week, but I will not tell you what I'm looking at until after tomorrow due to the GDP numbers and the CVX/XOM deadly earnings combo.  The GDP, however, may eliminate any if not all earnings plays for tomorrow.  Trade cautiously, not irrationally like I have been.

I made a lot of mistakes in January, and thus this weekend is Education Weekend, where I begin to read anything I can get my hands on that deals with T.A..  I want to get better, I want to be positive in February, and I want to get even with Mother Market and how she kicked me square in the face at the end of January.  My standpoint on Sunday night will be optimistic of my skills, and I am ready to take on this bull by the horns or this bear by the teeth.  

Welcome to the new MJTT.  "The List" is still the and-all-be-all of stocks in the market, and if you have any other suggestions for stocks to be put on the list, please comment below and I will look at them and add them if I feel like it.  New rules will be instituted to my trading strategies this weekend, and when Sunday night rolls around (GO STEELERS), I will give you my insight on the market as best to my ability.  

I got torn up today, to put it bluntly.  Tomorrow, I am hoping, will be different.  My position is mixed, however, and my only positions are in the following stocks:
  • ERX
  • BHI
  • FCX
I am not dip buying tomorrow, for I feel the market is about to unleash its fury through it's whiplashing it will do next week.  If I am buying anything, I am buying iETFs towards the middle of the day, pending on Morning action.  Nonetheless, I expect a pullback in the iETFs tomorrow due to their (meaning SRS, SKF, FAZ, TZA, and SDS) average levels in the following indicators:
  • Relative Volatility Index - 56.07 and increasing on all 5 iETFs
  • Weighted (w/ Market M.A.) Momentum - 1.51 and decreasing with 2 iETFs and leveling out with 3 iETFs
  • Swing Index - 1.33 as a constant day level, with a 30.26 high swing average (most of which occured at the beginning of the day with the exception of the TZA which had a mid day spike that was half of the average)
  • Money Flow Index - 69.92 and increasing with volatility on all 5 iETFs
These indicators are leading me to believe that although they have a little steam left, the pullback on these suckers tomorrow to close out the week may be inevitable.  If it doesn't occur tomorrow, expect it to happen Monday.  Watch for these iETFs to half their values tomorrow.  The bollinger bands are beginning to touch the overbought signals too, by the way.

Be careful tomorrow, for that is my only advice.  Come Sunday, I will outline the new trading strategies of MJTT.  One month down, eleven to go.


Keep Tradin'

ZM

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Just Love It.

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 1/28/2009 07:04:00 PM 1 comments
After this week, I am officially taking a week off unless the God's come out and strike down a great vengeance of negative news or the holiest of holy positive news, causing the market to go lopsided one way or the other.  I hate this ticker.  I hate it with a passion.  My "Sector Outline" sectors should be up tomorrow, but they're not going to be.  After an earnings report missing the street by -1.10, WFC goes positive $5.  FAZ, SRS, SKF, and all the other iETFs gets brutalized off the open and for the rest of the day, Gold chopped down with a dull Swiss Army knife, and to top everything else I've complained about off, after-hours has completely demolished my gains for the day thanks to DRYS.  This, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, is why I hate this ticker.  It, along with the "Bad Bank" and Stimulus Plan and a whole boat-load of the CEOs that put us in this position we're in right now, can all go to Hell (and I will not give them a handbasket to get there either).

Capitalism, as we knew it from the business perspective throughout the years of 2004 to 2007, as we knew it from Reagan and Bush Sr. and Harry Truman and the old-timer's of this Great Nation we live in, as we knew it from the days of putting in your 9 to 5 job hours and being happy about it, as we knew it from the days of no liability and getting made fun of if you screwed up, as we knew it BEFORE America began to dumb down our education, as we knew it when Fed. Rates used to be legit and actually exist, as we knew it from the days of Unemployment at 3-4%, and as we knew it when we didn't give free handouts to atrciously run companies and corporations, is dying a slow and painful death.

This, however disturbing it may be to all of you, is ridiculously true.  Thus, until stupidity ends and consolidation of this ticker is finished, I'm taking a breather.  I have a couple exit strategies still up my sleeve, and my positions will be held until the close on Friday, bad GDP or good GDP.

You want Initial Claims, you got it:



With the lay-offs that keep persisting and beating down this market, I'm holding true to my Twitter I twitted back on January 17th:  "U.S. Unemployment Rate is going to have the single highest month-to-month rate increase from January to February," compared to the last time the Unemployment Rate was at these levels.  My sentiment for the intial claims tomorrow, going with the current trend since the last week of December, puts us between a range of 567,000 to 686,000.

As for my positions, here's what I am mourning:
  • FCX
  • ERX
  • SII
  • BHI
  • DRYS

Very upset about the shinanigans DRYS (which I don't know what to do with yet) is pulling in the after-hours trading action, down about 24%.  Thanks to Briefing.com:  "DRYS discloses that it has 12 vessels trading in the spot market that are currently exposed to the downturn in the drybulk charter rates; files 424B2 relating to a $500 mln 'ATM Equity Offering' of their common shares;" Jeez, that would have been nice to know BEFORE I BOUGHT IT OFF OF ITS TECHNICAL STATUS.  SII will be ok due to their earnings report (which should beat the street), and in that context, BHI and ERX will survive due to the strength the energy sector will be pushing until Friday.  FCX still has the potential to go to $30 based on its strong RSI and momentum, as well as an upgrade from "Sell" to "Hold" from Canaccord Adams.  My stops will be placed tomorrow morning, and my cash position will stay at 25%.  Good Lord, imagine if I would have taken a 25% exposure on DRYS rather than a 12.5% one.  And to think, I was up a mere 6% on the day at around 3:15 today...  

The only stocks I'm watching for tomorrow are the ones I am currently invested in, with the exception of the iETF (Thus, my MJTT Positions are the MJTT's Daily T.L.).  Until tomorrow my fellow citizens of the United States....


Keep Tradin'

ZM


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Afternoon Update...

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 1/28/2009 02:13:00 PM 0 comments
First off, an article on the OPEC supply cut:

Secondly, the FOMC Rate Decision is that the financial sector has been improving, but the overall picture in a Macroeconomic sense has been steadily declining.  The rates didn't change, staying at .25.  Longer Term treasury securities are being prepared to be purchased by the treasury department, and there was only one vote that voted against this.  The Fed is willing to do anything to push this market higher, stimulate our economy, and attempt to bring us out of this slump, emphasizing their target problems as Mortgage and Credit issues.

That's what I got out of it through the CNBC live report from the Treasury Department.  If you'd like to listen to the talking heads that are on CNBC now, go right ahead.  For now, I'm going back to my monitors, watching my once positions get cut down at the knees for asinine reasons.  A minor knife down means nothing; the energy sector will be up until Friday.

Position Update:
  • ERX @ $38.69
  • FCX @ $25.94
  • DRYS @ $12.20
  • BHI @ $32.00
  • SII @ $25.02
  • Cash - 25%

Keep Tradin'

ZM

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Morning Update

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 1/28/2009 11:14:00 AM 0 comments
So I got my wish and I am currently off school and working like a dog, catching as many oil dips as I can while they still last.  My FAZ position got massacred and I decided to drop it at $45, which was its last true support until $35.  The iETFs decided to take the highway to the danger zone with today's unexpected open, and I think that's the way they may close out the week (with the exception of SRS).  On the contrary, my oil position in BHI is ripping and my newly bought ERX @ $38.64 is going to explode until week's close.  Three stocks I'm currently considering are named below:
  • DRYS - Any clean break above $12.40 will put this stock through to a resistance-less zone.  There are a ton of call options at $15 on a composite single-spread.
  • SII - Earnings Trade
  • OXY - Earnings Trade
Keep your head up today and don't buy TOO high!  I'm still sketched out about the enormous financial sector push we're currently experiencing, but we'll have to see how this plays out over time.  Initial Claims Report for tomorrow on MJTT may be in order...


Keep Tradin'

ZM

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Question...

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 1/28/2009 10:03:00 AM 0 comments
How does WFC have an, "improving balance sheet," with a huge loss, a debt charge from the FDIC, and tons of write-downs?


Back to update later.


Keep Tradin'

ZM

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Liking the Market...

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 1/27/2009 10:41:00 PM 0 comments
...For now.  I mean, any minute this thing we are still calling a market could turn on me, and in the context of the FAZ buy @ $58 (which I thought would have been a dream snag), I got ripped up after hours.  Ridiculous, for the entire financial sector is up after hours in absolutely idiotic amounts.  Whoever is trying to "dip buy" stocks like GS is in for a rude awakening tomorrow with WFC earnings (write-downs on top of write-downs on top of write-downs...  Thanks to Wachovia and poor management!), so if you're one of those people, prepare to cover those pathetic positions!  The Rate Decision will also have an impact on the market in the short run, but in the long run it means nothing...  Yet.  Crude Inventories may have a factor in a pullback in the Energy Sector tomorrow due to a possible surplus of oil barrels in the United States.  I am 50/50, hoping for it to happen and pullback the sector so I can get into some Energy Sector positions before they rip higher Thursday and Friday, and hoping for it to not happen due to my position in BHI.  Either way, it's somewhat of a win-win because I'll be profitting in the end.

For my next order of business, I'll move into my Sector Outlines I promised to give you last evening.  The two sectors I have chosen are Energy (with emphasis on Oil & Gas stocks) and Basic Materials (with emphasis on Gold stocks).  My laugh of the day, however, goes to Cramer, who is telling people to buy AEM, which is just freakin' hilarious.  Although I do appreciate Basic Material stocks, you've got to be kidding me; @ $52 that is a terribly overbought stock and will be a difficult one to make money out of it in the short-term.  Continuing on with the Sector Outlines, I have come to the conclusion that in the coming weeks these two sectors are due to outperform the market again like they have for the past week or so.  I have chosen the following stocks to outline with chartology in these sectors:
  1. Basic Materials:  FCX, NEM, GG
  2. Energy:  SLB, HAL, BHI, OXY, ACI, PCX
And finally, the chartology that goes with these tickers:

FCX  30-Day

NEM  30-Day

GG  30-Day

SLB  30-Day

HAL  30-Day

BHI  30-Day

OXY  30-Day

ACI  30-Day

PCX  60-Day

Other ways to trade these sectors are through the UYM (Basic Materials), the DXO (Oil and Gas), and ERX (Energy):

UYM  30-Day

DXO  30-Day

ERX  30-Day

And there you have it for the MJTT Sector Outline.

MJTT's Daily T.L.:  FCX, ACI, BHI, GG, UYM, FAZ, SRS, SBUX (based on earnings performance), WFC, GS, ARLP, SDS & SSO (pick up one based on definitive market direction indicators), OXY, SII, CVX, NEM, SLB, HAL, ERX

Position Update:
  • BHI @ $32.00 w/ Stop @ $30.00
  • FAZ @ $58.00  w/ Stop still to be determined.
  • FCX @ $25.94  w/ Stop @ $22.00
Seems like a lot, but every ticker up there is going to be involved in the grand scheme of the market for tomorrow and the rest of the week in some way, shape, or form.  I am PRAYING for a day off of educational services (aka school) tomorrow due to weather conditions (hopefully my wish is granted)!!  Ending the post off right, I'll bless you with some MJTT Words of Wisdom:

Don't Forget to Hedge Your Bets While in Consolidation Periods!

Keep Tradin'


ZM

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Today's Update w/ Tomorrow's Outlook

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 1/27/2009 12:22:00 AM 0 comments
Another quick update...  This week keeps getting busier and busier for me, and my insight on the market keeps getting thinner and thinner with the way that our indexes have been trending.  Until we have a definitive direction and we're out of this consolidation period, I am not making any large buys.  Earnings Trades are risky trades, but I did happen to pick up FCX today @ $25.94 (a lot more expensive than I should have bought it at) and I'm keeping it for the long haul with a Stop @ $22.  With the way basic materials have been trending since last Friday, I do expect a slight pullback in the UYM and other major basic material sector stocks tomorrow due to the strength the sector has been experiencing since last week (Side Note: Gold (7) and Silver (1) are in the Top 10 during a 10-Day period when I ran a sector search this afternoon).   After tomorrow, I will choose two sectors from MJTT's T.L. and reproduce every ticker that I follow in the sector through my chartology.  

No doubt keep a close eye on energy this week and short the current pullback in Tech (thanks Anar!), giving yourself multiple options when the market picks a side...  Could be a week, could be two weeks, could be another month (although I doubt that), but stay patient and wait for the right entry point.

MJTT's Daily T.L. Picks:  NUE, FCX, BTU, NAL, ACI, BHI, GG, UYM, FAZ

MJTT's Weekly T.L. Picks:  CVX, FAZ, ERX, SSO, GT, NOV, DRYS, GAS, ENER, TNA, EBS, TZA, NUE, FCX, BTU, NAL, ACI, BHI, GG, UYM

Call me crazy, but I have a buy order in @ $57.35 for FAZ.  With the way that stock moves throughout the trading day, it would be a shame not to trade it.  Any bad financial earning this week will put this through the roof, making this iETF a very short, profitable squeeze.  BE CAREFUL THOUGH; you could really get kicked in the face with Financial iETFs due to the sector's unpredictability, so if you do not know how to trade them, DON'T.  Wait until the market chooses a direction and sit this week out.  With WFC reporting their earnings on Wednesday though (Pre-Market, by the way), I hope to see my buy order get put to work tomorrow.  If not, I would settle with a $59-$60 buy on FAZ with a sell out of the bell Wednesday before the market recovers from WFC shell-shock.  This is when, in my opinion, you'll see Gold soar (watch the GLD) and the UYM go back up around the $13's. 

Watch this week CLOSELY, it's going to be a crazy one!  Until tomorrow...

Keep Tradin'


ZM

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Long Weekend...

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 1/25/2009 10:59:00 PM 1 comments
Ok, so yes.  I completely slacked on my weekend duties of updating MJTT.  I am going to make a very quick update with absolutely no details involved.  My apologies, the weekend was quite busy with the largest exam of my life taking place on Saturday morning.  Quick Updates are bulleted below:
  • Watch for gold to pop throughout the week, especially on Wednesday with WFC earnings coming out pre-market!
  • Heads up on the iETFs for financials...  It may be wise to build a position throughout Monday and Tuesday for the projected downturn of the market Wednesday.
  • Don't put all of your eggs in one basket and remember to hedge!  This past week was a wild one, and if you go killed like I did, learn from your mistakes and make the most of it this week!!  
Positions Update:
  • 100% Cash due to the lack of market direction.
MJTT's Daily T.L.:
  • FCX, HAL, STLD, SNDK, DRYS, NOV, GT, TNA, ERX, FAZ
The MJTT's Weekly T.L. will be updated tomorrow, as well as a large post summing up tomorrow's action.  Be prepared, and until then...

Keep Tradin'


ZM


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Forgot to Mention...

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 1/23/2009 12:04:00 AM 0 comments
Here are two good articles that I happened to stumble over before closing up shop:

Dont' forget to read the article below!!!


ZM

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Friday Watch from MJTT's T.L.

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 1/22/2009 09:37:00 PM 2 comments
First off, T.L. is "The List" (I thought I'd make it flashy and give it an abbreviation).

Looking over MJTT's T.L., I noticed three things:
  1. The lay-offs kicked the market in the face.  Initial Claims beat the market like a drum from a projected 541,000 to the actual number of 589,000.  Those are lost jobs folks!!!  This can't continue, and Obama is doing exactly what I thought he would do in order to solve the problem; sit in a corner in the fetal position while sucking his thumb, go to unproductive "Economic Conferences," and pray that the Congress and the Senate pass his "job-saving/creating" stimulus plan.  Good luck with that, and watch the dollar go through an enormous deflationary period due to absurd government spending!  I can't wait to tack on MORE money to our national debt!
  2. Based on the current financial situation we have been so sanctimoniously blessed with, I have come to the conclusion that the financial push we have been experiencing since Tuesday has been earnings driven and that it will not continue into tomorrow due to the slack on earnings from Microsoft and the amount of lay-offs from the tech sector.  As AAPL drove the market higher Wednesday and the mood was optimistic tech wise, we saw the market take a turn for the worst today (even though it wasn't down much) as the tech sector was evidently weakened by bad news.  Keep this in mind when reading number three;
  3. Number Three...  My lucky number, which gives me new-found faith on my decision to buy FAZ @ $62.75 today near the close (but trust me, my technical and fundamental reasons as to why I bought FAZ are much better than my faith-based ones).  The ridiculous buy volume on both JPM and GS will end tomorrow, no doubt.  With this in mind, FCX is at a pretty solid support, and UYM is looking ready to get out of its wedge @ $12.41.  Closing with a spinning top candle, however, does not convince me one bit and doesn't give me enough of a decisive measure to buy into the UYM or FCX.  It's worth a look, however, as the pick-up in gold will spring-board due to the financial institutions' week's end demise occuring tomorrow.
The iETFs are looking mighty tradeable again.  Although looks can be deceiving for some of them, keep your eye mainly on SRS and FAZ for tomorrow.  I have set up charts for both of them below:

SRS  30-Day

FAZ  20-Day

The MJTT watchlist for tomorrow is as follows (with charts for each below):  FSLR, DXO, UYM, GT, FCX, GAS

FSLR  60-Day

GAS  30-Day

DXO  30-Day

GT  20-Day

UYM  30-Day

FCX  30-Day

Position Update:
  • FAZ @ $62.75  [20.73%]  w/ Stop @ $60.50
  • Cash  [79.27%]
This concludes my lesson on how to not get shafted tomorrow like I did on Tuesday.  Hedge your bets, place some tight stops, don't go all-in, and watch your back!  Until tomorrow my friends...

Keep Tradin'


ZM

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The List: Part 2

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 1/21/2009 09:58:00 PM 0 comments
Ladies and Gentlemen, Boys and Girls, Cats and Dogs...


$ The List $ 

Sector w/ Industry Ticker Tickers per Industry
Sectors w/ Percentage Spread Total Tickers






Energy: Oil Well Services and Equipment NOV, SLB, HAL, BHI, ESV, HEP 6
Energy (30.91%) 17
Energy: Oil and Gas – Integrated CVX 1
Transportation (1.82%) 1
Transportation: Water Transportation DRYS 1
Basic Materials (16.36%) 9
Energy: Coal ACI, PCX, PVR, JRCC, ARLP, BTU 6
Technology (10.91%) 6
Basic Materials: Gold and Silver PAAS, GG, NEM, AEM, ABX 5
Financials (3.64%) 2
Basic Materials: Iron and Steel STLD, X, NUE 3
Consumer Cyclical (5.45%) 3
Technology: Semiconductors ENER, FSLR, MRVL 3
Capital Goods (1.82%) 1
Financials: Investment Services JPM, GS 2
Conglomerates (1.82%) 1
Consumer Cyclical: Tires GT 1
Services (1.82%) 1
Technology: Computer Hardware AAPL 1
Utilities (1.82%) 1
Basic Materials: Metal Mining FCX 1
(76.36%) 42
Technology: Computer Services GOOG 1


Consumer Cyclical: Footwear NKE 1


Consumer Cyclical: Apparel/Accessories RL 1


Technology: Computer Storage Devices SNDK 1


Energy: Oil and Gas Operations HK, OXY, APA, XTO 4


Capital Goods: Aerospace and Defense GFF 1


Conglomerates FO 1


Services: Real Estate Operations KIM 1


Utilities: Natural Gas Utilities GAS 1








ETF Classification w/ Percentage Spread Ticker Tickers per ETF Classification








Small Caps (3.64%) TNA, SAA 2


S&P 500 (1.82%) SSO 1


Oil and Gas (1.82%) DXO 1


Basic Materials (1.82%) UYM 1


Energy (1.82%) ERX 1


(10.91%)
6








iETF Classification w/ Percentage Spread Ticker Tickers per iETF Classification








Financials (3.64%) SKF, FAZ 2


Real Estate (1.82%) SRS 1


Oil and Gas (1.82%) DUG 1


S&P 500 (1.82%) SDS 1


Small Caps (1.82%) TZA 1


Energy (1.82%) ERY 1


(12.73%)
7



After a lot of double-bottom formations holding true during today's trading session, many of the stocks/ETFs you see above are beginning to push higher while the iETFs got chainsawed (the worst version of the classic whipsawing).  I personally don't trust the current rally we're dealing with as a whole, especially since we cleanly broke a very important support level on the $SPX (816), with the close on Tuesday being somewhere around 808.  Dangerous territory, heads up!

We are in a consolidation range if we compare our $SPX today to our $SPX from 2002.  Check the chart:

$SPX  10-Year

Look familiar?  My PSAR indicator is giving me a long dot, giving me some back-bone that today's push forward may continue into tomorrow.  Don't forget about those Initial Claims!!  As I Twittered a couple of days ago, the December-January Unemployment Rate is going to be the largest month-to-month increase since the mid-70's.  Keep your head up, keep your stops tight, and for God's sake, at least nibble at those iETFs; I know I might.  

In the meantime, ride the earnings rally.  Didn't I tell you I liked the Tech/Small Caps trade?  If I didn't get eaten alive by the financial monster over the weekend and into Tuesday, I would still be positive for the month.  I'll wait to do my victory dance after tomorrow's push forward, however.

Position Update:
  • AAPL @ $81.97
  • GOOG @ $298.96
  • ENER @ $25.64
NOTE:  I will not have charts up on the 10 highlighterd stocks until after the trading day tomorrow because I had a rough and most interesting day (unrelated to the market) and needed to take a breather for a couple of hours.  Apologies for any inconveniences!

Keep Tradin'


ZM

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MJTT Disclaimer

I am not, by any means, a financial analyst. All posts and tickers mentioned in them are my opinions and my opinions only. If you buy and sell ANY tickers because of my recommendation, you are trading at your own risk.

Zachary A. Musso - MJTT Owner/Author

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Zachary A. Musso
Fully Discretionary Technical Swing/Day Trader since November of 2008 - Full Time Student
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