MJTT: 05/01/2009 - 06/01/2009

Top 5 Friday

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 5/29/2009 01:18:00 AM 1 comments

For the most of the night, I went through about 70 charts in order to find the the setups I think will be profitable going into Friday's trading session. All tickers were pulled from either the Investment Spotter, Swingers, or Stock Hacker watch lists (if you want to be reminded as to what other tickers are on those watch lists besides the five [5] presented here tonight, feel free to look through Tuesday's and Wednesday's posts). So, without further ado...

Top 5 Friday

OCNF 6 Month, Daily

DRYS 6 Month, Daily

HL 9 Month, Daily

SSW 9 Month, Daily

SWSI 6 Month, Daily

Good luck to all tomorrow!!

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The Quick Orders of Business

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 5/27/2009 10:04:00 PM 0 comments

The first order of business is going to be saying that the SMN/$XAU + DUG/$DJAIGCL Analyses will be presented in a pretty little post this weekend. Stay tuned.

The second order of business is going to be recapping today's low volume, large point drop the market suffered through. Yes, it's quite a shame that the Tuesday rally was pretty much negated, but that does not leave room for us to wallow in sadness, sit in a corner, and cry with our thumbs in our mouths or the like. If you're an optimist like myself, you'd be thinking that today's market decline was an incredible opportunity to dip buy the hell out of small cap names that got taken out. With that said, if you're one of those bearish schmucks hoping the market shits the bed, you have some sustenance being short here because the $SPX is still off a mere 13 points until the 880 support is seen again. All traders, no matter what bias, MUST keep their strategies flexible and their heads out of their asses. In other words, be prepared for anything tomorrow.

The third order of business is handing all of you my Top 5 from both the Swinger's Watch List and the Stock Hacker Watch List. So with that, I bring you the first ever Top 5's:

The Stock Hacker Watch List

ARTC 6 Month, Daily (#1 out of 23 tickers)

** Broke out of wedge price pattern **

GBX 6 Month, Daily (#23 out of 23 tickers)

** In an ascending triangle price pattern, retraced to base trend line **

AMAT 1 Year, Daily (#2 out of 23 tickers)

** Pushed off of base trend line; within wedge price pattern **

EXTR 9 Month, Daily (#22 out of 23 tickers)

** Stuck in a wedge price pattern, attempting to find price range to bounce off of **

SWC 9 Month, Daily (#10 out of 23 tickers)

** Uptrending Channel, good SHORT opportunity **

The Swinger's Watch List

STP 6 Month, Daily (#1 out of 26 tickers)

** This could either continue to explode to the upside or meet resistance and dip. Which ever it is, STP still has a lot of work to do in order to fully breakout **

GT 3 Month, Daily (#26 out of 26 tickers)

** Consolidating in a very tight wedge pattern, wait for the next move to execute **

JASO 6 Month, Daily (#2 out of 26 tickers)

** A lot of range trading between support and resistance levels, watch for H&S price pattern **

EEE 6 Month, Daily (#25 out of 26)

** Descending triangle price pattern with considerably strong support level **

OCNF 6 Month, Daily (#18 out of 26 tickers)

** I would love to see OCNF pullback one more day; watch the trend base line forming the ascending triangle price pattern **

And there you have it!

Fourth order of business are position updates:

CPSL @ $2.09 (Ascending Triangle continuation)
PCX @ $9.18 (Should have gotten rid of it today, waiting for Momentum to increase prior to releasing this ticker)
GBX @ $7.02 (Ascending Triangle continuation)
CYNO @ $6.76 (Ascending Triangle continuation if CYNO can regain overall trend)

Stops for all positions will be mentioned on Twitter prior to market open tomorrow!!

Fifth and final order of business tonight? Behold, the Investment Spotter's Watch List:

ATLS
BRS
BRY
CPE
CRS
CRZO
DNR
DRYS
EXM
LDK
MBI
MEE
MMR
MTW
OLN
PRC
REXX
SFY
SGY
TITN

Why are these singled out as "investments?" The way I see it, these stocks will some day be back up into their old prices of mid to high double digits numbers ($50+), and thus buying them in bulk while they're a fifth or more of their 2008 highs could prove to be profitable in the next two (2) years.

Good luck to all tomorrow, and enjoy the rest of your evening!

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ETF/iETF Analysis + This Week's Swinger's Watch Lists

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 5/26/2009 12:23:00 AM 1 comments

The Fly and the other tabbed bloggers @ iBC have done it again, making the first ever iBC Report. If I were you, I would click on the link seen below and read the report front to cover, for it saved me about an hour of my time to rant and rave about some market items that have been on my mind lately (specifically, ChartAddict's "Using Stock Market Indices" and Gio's "VIX You Up").

http://www.ibankcoin.com/flyblog/index.php/2009/05/25/behold-ibc-report-volume-1/ ----- Thanks guys!

On to the first matter of business tonight. As I said I would, I've put together some daily charts on SMN, DUG, and UYM.

I am tracking UYM with the RSI-FS%K Trading Guidance System aka "Daddy Moose" to begin taking notes and analyzing the accuracy of the system itself. With summer approaching and more time to trade freeing up, I have come to the conclusion that I want to fine-tune "Daddy Moose" and use it as an automated trading system when I am away in Spain towards the end of June (yes, I will be taking a two week vacation to Spain). Without further ado, let's take a look @ the UYM chart:

UYM 20 Day, 60 Minute

SMN and DUG are a different story. I pieced together the skewed price action as best as I possibly could and came up with some interesting outcomes:

SMN 1 Year, Daily

DUG 1 Year, Daily

DUG 3 Month, Daily

Seeing the price action of both of these important 3x iETFs, I have realized that one of two things could happen this week:

Resistance in DUG is held and the channel trend prevails in SMN, both iETFs dropping due to a buildup in volume distribution.
Volume accumulation finally breaks above what it needs to be in both SMN and DUG, with SMN breaking out of its channel (target price @ $22.50) and DUG breaking out above its $20.52 resistance level (target price based on crude oil price correlation in relation to DUG's price action).

Tomorrow night, I'll be doing a comparative analysis on SMN's percentage change relationship with the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index ($XAU) and DUG's percentage change relationship with Crude Oil through the Dow-Jones AIG Crude Oil Sub-Index ($DJAIGCL). The relationship will obviously be an inverse correlation, but I feel that seeing the charts side-by-side will help you and me, the traders, spot the major inflection points within the oil industry and the basic materials sector. In my opinion, I feel you may begin to see #1 from the above "things that could happen" list.

The Swinger's Watch Lists

After slaving over multiple charts late at night this weekend and running through multiple customized stock screens I ran using Stock Hacker on the thinkorswim Trading Desktop, I was finally able to put together two (2) legit lists of possible swing trades that could explode this week or be bought on a dip. Keep your eyes on the following:

Watch List #1 (Stock Hacker)

AMAT
ARTC
ATMI
ATPG
BEXP
BJS
CCC
CMCO
CPSL
CPX
CRUS
DELL
EGY
ELMG
EXAC
EXTR
GBX
GPOR
HL
NGS
SFY
SWC
SWSI

Watch List #2 (Swinger)

ACET
ARM
AUTH
BTE
CYNO (Currently Own)
DHT
EEE
ENER (Investment - Brother's Portfolio)
FCS
FTO
GT
GTE
ICO
IO
JASO
MEA
NG
NWY
OCNF
PDO
PDS
PZG
SD
SOL
SSW
STP

Tomorrow, I will be taking five (5) tickers from each watch list (a Top 2/3 and Bottom 2/3 based off of percentage performance) and creating charts for each ticker. These small cap tickers are interesting, for over the past week, I've made more money in small caps than I have throughout my entire career (however short it may be) as a trader than I have with large caps. Now of course, I was not trading during the crazy times from the Tech Bubble bottom to 2007, but these little companies can go a very long way for traders.

I will also be putting up my Investment Spotter Watch List, which is full of ridiculously cheap stocks that could end up getting back to their Pre-Recession price in the next two to three years, depending on how the rest of the recession plays out. In other words, these stocks could easily double, triple, or even quadruple to get back to their old prices, and that to me is a large investment opportunity.

As for now, I am off to catch some zzzz's. Sleep tight all, and good luck tomorrow!

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Position Charts (Untimely As Always)...

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 5/24/2009 12:55:00 AM 0 comments

...but can you blame me? I'm on vacation!!

The CYNO, PCX, and JRCC charts as promised:

CYNO 2 Year, Daily

CYNO 6 Month, Daily

PCX 1 Year, Daily

PCX 6 Month, Daily

JRCC 6 Month, Daily

I am saving the UYM chart for tonight's post, as I saw it more appropriate for UYM and SMN to be grouped together.

Hope everyone's Memorial Day Weekend is going well!!

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Weekly Wrap-Up!

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 5/23/2009 12:22:00 AM 0 comments

This long week is finally over. I have had way too many long weeks in a row, and frankly I'm getting sick of it. My academic life is moving at a snail's pace, with nine days (including finals) left in this year of my education. My athletic life is eating away at the other portion of my life, as my lacrosse team advances to the State tournament this week. To add to the length of this week, we lost our District 3 Final game on Thursday to our rivals, and trust me, that made yesterday move ridiculously slow.

But enough of the negativity and length of the next nine days. I'm currently at the beach with the lady friend until Monday, and I will be enjoying myself while relaxing and carrying on until I come back home. Will I be doing work in the mean time?

Of course; the lady friend needs to sleep, and when she hits the sack, I hit the lap top.

So let's recap on the market action from this week. Let's begin with a review of my swing trades from this week to analyze where I went right, where I went wrong, and where I am still trading (if you've been following me on Twitter, you probably know most of the information seen below):

Monday - I was full cash going into this week, and by the close Monday I stayed this way. Yes, I missed the Market Crack Whore who comes around every once and a while... You know, the market fem-fatal that pushes the market high into the sky for some ridiculous reason that is so obscure, you're not quite sure what to make of it. Was I pissed I missed the Monday Bear Massacre? Yes. Do I care about not contacting the Market Crack Whore late in the day on Monday to say BUY BUY BUY? Not one bit. Big days like that allow people to wait for the dip the following day, which is exactly what I did...
Tuesday - Purchased OCNF @ $1.80, CPSL @ $2.06, and ICO @ $2.94 right off the open. As the market stayed mixed during the day, the steel industry blew up, causing my CPSL position to explode towards the close. I sold out of CPSL @ $2.30 (+0.24, +12%) prior to the end of the trading session, and for some unknown reason, I decided to add CMCO @ $13.92.
Wednesday - Bad Trade/Good Trade kind of day. Off the open, the market was stuck in a buy frenzy. After OCNF's stellar Q1 Earnings Report, I sold out of my entire position @ $1.98 (+0.18, +10%). That was the good trade. The bad trade happened to be in that end-of-day buy into CMCO, which I sadly set a market stop for off the open and got caught with my pants down, selling @ $12.24 (-1.68, -12%). This was a mental error on my behalf, and I SHOULD NOT have bought into this company without researching it more. I wallowed in this trade for about 10 minutes, and then moved on to sell ICO @ $3.15 (+0.21, +7%). I stayed full cash for the rest of the day.
Thursday - I relaxed during the down day that I was waiting for since Tuesday; low volume, high point decline in the $SPX. This is a perfect day to dip buy, for it shows significant weakness from whoever is supposed to be taking control of the market (in this case, the Bears). After waiting all day, I added PCX @ $9.18, JRCC @ $20.74, and CYNO @ $6.78. The coal industry took a serious beating on Thursday, and this gave me optimism for making successful dip buy trades (hence the adds to PCX and JRCC). CYNO was (and still is) a perfect technical setup just waiting to explode.
Friday - I held on to ALL of my positions during the trading session, staying strong during a very mixed market day. My positions declined in value by a smidgen of where I bought them, and at the end of the day, I decided to double my CYNO position, buying another round @ $6.74.

And that was my trading week. My Memorial Day Weekend holds are as follows:

PCX @ $9.18
JRCC @ $20.74
CYNO @ $6.76 (average price)

What am I looking at going into this next week? News-based buys (and yes, I said BUYS). For some odd reason, I feel next week will be a, "Buy the Shitty News," week. GM and the Credit Card Regulations will be in focus for next week, as well as the price action in commodities. Something that hasn't been getting enough recognition is no doubt the increase in Gold over the past couple of days. CNBC doesn't say much about it because they're still PomPom-ing the hell out of this March bottom, but trust me; if USO, DXO, and ERX begin to crash in style, I will be all over DUG as a long-term hedge to my swing trades. These iETFs are going to get freaky soon, and when the time comes, the Bears will be back to finish off this Inverse Head and Shoulders price pattern from the technical perspective of the $SPX (the right shoulder support level is approximately 750).

Charts of my positions will be up tomorrow evening, as well as the UYM "Daddy Moose" Analysis. SMN and DUG Analysis will be up Sunday night, and Monday night will be your, "For the Week Ahead," post that is put out weekly.

In conclusion...

Enjoy Your Memorial Day Weekend Everyone!!!

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Pre-Market Picks

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 5/19/2009 08:02:00 AM 0 comments

Last night, I drew up a couple of charts from the Swinger's Watch List that peaked my interest if we have a low volume, high point pullback today in the $SPX (the perfect dip setup). Enjoy the charts:

MTW 6 Month, Daily

ICO 6 Month, Daily

ACET 6 Month, Daily

CCC 6 Month, Daily

CPSL 6 Month, Daily

CYNO 6 Month, Daily

EEE 6 Month, Daily

Most of these tickers are holding on to their March bottom uptrend, and if that's been broken, they're holding on tightly to their long SMAs (50d and 100d). If CCC turns parabolic, they're my first choice for a dip buy. CPSL is a ticker that I'd take up on a breakout of its ascending triangle price pattern, and ICO is a ticker that, with a boost of strength from the Coal industry, I would enjoy riding higher past $2.94. Earnings tickers for today I'm watching closely are DHT, OCNF, SOLF, and JASO. Tickers I'll be watching for tomorrow are CMCO and TWB. I will not be putting up a post tonight because of my District Semi-Final game, so enjoy your trading day and good luck!!

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Q1 Earnings Trades (5/18/09 to 5/22/09)

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 5/18/2009 12:49:00 AM 1 comments

Good evening to all and to all a good evening! I hope every body's weekend was grand and glorious and I hope everyone took advantage of the nice weather that occurred at the beginning of the weekend (if you live on the East Coast, that is).

Let's get down to business. First off, I should have an article on SolarFeeds up sometime tomorrow, so be sure to check out the SolarFeeds community in order to see my analysis and other great posts on the Solar sub-industry. The companies I drew up charts for were SOLF, JASO, STP, and LDK (all of which report earnings this week). The link to SolarFeeds is as follows:

www.solarfeeds.com (Simple, right?)

Final order of business tonight is the list of Q1 Earnings for this week. As I have been since I changed my trading mindset, I have mostly (if not all) small cap companies on the Q1 Earnings Watch List for this week. After tomorrow, a couple of charts will be up on the site as to which Q1 Earnings swing trades I'm really keying into. Also, if you're looking for more small cap companies to watch out for, refer to my previous post (The Swinger's Watch List) for tickers that will come in handy to make some ching if the market decides to climb the rope of recovery by way of a V-Bottom (laughable, isn't it?).

In any case, the dips will still rear their ugly heads, so stay on your game and keep your eyes on the daily setups. As my buddy Forrest Gump would say, "Ya neva know watcha gonna git." With that, I leave you with the Q1 Earnings Watch List for this week:

APP: 5/18/09 - AH, -0.05 (Missed Analyst Estimate last quarter)
HIMX: 5/18/09 - AH, +0.03 (Missed Analyst Estimate last quarter)
IESC: 5/18/09 - PM, -0.05 (Analyst Estimate unknown for last quarter)
ITRN: 5/18/09 - PM, +0.19 (Missed Analyst Estimate last quarter)
PRC: 5/18/09 - Unknown Time, -0.03 (Missed Analyst Estimate last quarter)
TNP: 5/18/09 - PM, +0.63 (Missed Analyst Estimate last quarter)
DHT: 5/19/09 - PM, +0.28 (Missed Analyst Estimate last quarter)
DY: 5/19/09 - AH, +0.04 (Missed Analyst Estimate last quarter)
JASO: 5/19/09 - PM, -0.05 (Missed Analyst Estimate last quarter)
OCNF: 5/19/09 - AH, +0.01 (Missed Analyst Estimate last quarter)
PRGN: 5/19/09 - AH, +0.49 (Missed Analyst Estimate last quarter)
RAVN: 5/19/09 - PM, +0.45 (Missed Analyst Estimate last quarter)
SOLF: 5/19/09 - PM, -0.16 (Analyst Estimate unknown for last quarter)
CMCO: 5/20/09 - PM, +0.28 (Missed Analyst Estimate last quarter)
INTU: 5/20/09 - AH, +1.60 (Beat Analyst Estimate last quarter)
NTAP: 5/20/09 - AH, +0.24 (Matched Analyst Estimate last quarter)
TWB: 5/20/09 - PM, -0.18 (Missed Analyst Estimate last quarter)
BRS: 5/21/09 - PM, +0.64 (Missed Analyst Estimate last quarter)
BRCD: 5/21/09 - PM, +0.09 (Beat Analyst Estimate last quarter)
EXM: 5/21/09 - AH, +0.69 (Analyst Estimate unknown for last quarter)
GME: 5/21/09 - PM, +0.42 (Matched Analyst Estimate last quarter)
MF: 5/21/09 - PM, +0.08 (Matched Analyst Estimate last quarter)
LDK: 5/21/09 - AH, -0.07 (Missed Analyst Estimate last quarter)
STP: 5/21/09 - PM, -0.06 (Missed Analyst Estimate last quarter)
NWY: 5/21/09 - PM, -0.08 (Missed Analyst Estimate last quarter)
PDCO: 5/21/09 - PM, +0.50 (Beat Analyst Estimate last quarter)

Of the earnings tickers shown above, 17 of 26 tickers (65% of the Watch List) missed analyst estimates when they reported their earnings during the last quarter. 3 of 26 tickers (12% of the Watch List) beat analyst estimates last quarter, 3 of 26 tickers (12% of Watch List) matched analyst estimates last quarter, and 3 of 26 tickers (12% of Watch List) were unknown as to how they did compared to analyst estimates last quarter. I never said these names wouldn't be risky.

Trade with caution this week, and good luck!

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Afternoon Delight

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 5/17/2009 11:23:00 AM 0 comments

Afternoon Delight (Click the link and relaaaax)

As we reach the middle of this fine Sunday, I wanted to share my analysis of the inverse price correlation between TLT and the $SPX. Since Thursday, I've been researching the iShares 20+ Year Barclays Treasury Bond (TLT) and I've been wondering what moves people to buy into TLT. As I sat at my desk on Friday evening, I realized that TLT's movement from May 8th all the way to May 15th was driven by the news of other countries buying more Treasury Bonds. As it turns out, the Treasury International Capital Report on Friday of last week showed that China and Japan upped their stake of U.S. Treasuries by a whopping 3.2% and 3.9% (respectively) in the month of March. To read more, go to link below and read the brief summary of the Treasury International Capital Report written by Econoday:

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=438156&cust=mam&year=2009#top

Although that news is all well and good, the chart is the most shocking piece of the T-Bond puzzle and speaks for itself:

$SPX - TLT Analysis 6 Month, Daily

The combination of the T.I.C. Report and this chart gives me pause, for it shows me that China and Japan are attempting to balance out their own currency, economy, and stock exchanges through the use of Treasury bonds. In my honest opinion, I think they're going to wait until we go through another equity correction (meaning the $SPX begins to drop yet again), watch the price inflation in Treasury bonds within the continental U.S. (meaning as people begin to flee to government safety through the usage of Treasury bonds, the price of the bonds go up), and finally take off large stakes of Treasury bonds in order to free themselves from U.S. debt. If this occurs, their market's will soar and ours will be stuck in an unproductive rut, with our economy taking forever to bottom out as our government attempts to spend our way out of this economic downturn.

Food for thought.

I'll be posting some tickers later tonight for all of you to check out this week. Enjoy your Saturday, and don't forget to be apart of the MacroTwits Hour from 9pm to 10pm tonight on StockTwits!

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Straight from the Heart of Lovie the Bear...

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 5/13/2009 09:10:00 PM 0 comments

As you can see, Lovie the Bear is back from hibernation and is ready to play. He enjoys sunsets, walks on the beach, caring for all of the elderly bears in the pack, and (most importantly) a feast of a nice meaty Bull every now and then. Today, Lovie the Bear decided to eat away at my portfolio's gains (6.6% to be exact). Lovie, however, has a lot of work to do on multiple market sectors prior to bringing the second wave of the big bad bear upon traders like myself.

During my mental health day away from being a student, I caught up on some sleep, some school work, and of course some much needed stock market analysis. Looking at the VIX, we failed to breakout of the 34 range, which would have given the bears some serious steam to work with. A complete VIX analysis is seen below:

VIX 6 Month, Daily

My sector watch lists (Energy and Basic Materials) showed ridiculous statistics, as both sectors combined were down an average of $1.64 and 6.08%. The statistics for each sector watch list are as follows:

Energy Sector Watch List:

25 of 26 stocks/ETFs/iETFs (96%) were down an average of $1.72 and 5.12%.
1 of 26 stocks/ETFs/iETFs (4%) were up an average of $1.33 and 7.38%.
If you were thinking that the one (1) ticker on the watch list that was up was an iETF, you were absolutely correct! DUG was the only ticker that closed green today in the watch list.

Basic Materials Sector Watch List:

13 of 16 stocks/ETFs/iETFs (81%) were down an average of $1.56 and 7.03%.
3 of 16 stocks/ETFs/iETFs (19%) were up an average of $1.17 and 4.24%.
Again, if you were thinking that at least one (1) of the tickers on the watch list that were up was an iETF, you were correct! SMN is the only iETF in the watch list and was one of the three that closed in the green today ($2.09 and 10.3%). The other two were AEM ($1.02 and 1.98%) and GLD ($0.39 and 0.43%), both of which are apart of/represent the Gold industry.

Because I've been slacking SO badly with my chartology over the past two weeks, it's time to show all of you some opportunities that are out there for both bears and bulls (but mostly bulls). If the rally persists and this was just an Armageddon head fake, then the dip buyers will absolutely LOVE this post. However, if you're more on the, "Death to All Markets," path, you'll love the breakdowns seen in the charts to come (damn, there were a lot of comas in that sentence).

All in all, enjoy the eighteen (18) charts I've provided below. The charts are hooked up with basic technical analysis, so there will be no explanations for fourteen (14) of the charts: