Subscribe to Posts
Subscribe to Comments
The PPT

Today's Post...

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 8/28/2009 08:30:00 AM 0 comments
... Can be seen on Davian Letter by clicking on the link below:


The post should be up sometime in the next hour, so keep checking and enjoy!

I'm staying full cash going into next week, as I have no interest in getting into the Slap-Chop of Mother Market at this stage of the game. I think Shipping could catch some wind here (as seen in more detail in the DL Post), as well as some China trades, CAEI and the China Solars being my favorites.

For now, I'm going to finish my drive to Lehigh in tumultuous rain. I will attempt to pop in on Twitter as much as possible throughout the day, but I can't guarantee anything. Look for a post on the Chart.ly Blog tomorrow afternoon, good luck trading today, and as always, enjoy your Friday!


ZM

| | edit post

$ Cash Money & Blackjack $

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 8/26/2009 01:50:00 AM 0 comments
Good morning MJTT!

If you've been following my trades closely on Twitter and on iBC's Peanut Gallery comment wall, you know that I'm going into today's trading session unscathed and ready to sell. You see, from Friday of last week until now, I've been able to successfully turn over three (3) out of the four (4) stocks that I held over the weekend in Monday. Let's review what's happened on Monday and yesterday:
  • Sold CYTR @ 0.97 for a +0.07, +7.8% gain
  • Sold SPPI @ 6.80 for a +0.55, +8.8% gain (could have held it MUCH longer and been even more successful, but decided not to - a gain is a gain)
  • Sold COIN @ 1.40 for a +0.16, +12.9% gain
  • Sold AGEN @ 2.07 for a -0.09, -4.3% loss
  • Currently holding YRCW @ 1.98 into today's trading session with a stop/limit set for 1.85/2.25, respectively
My goal of cashing out my Wednesday is going to come true, as I will be manually trading YRCW until about 10:30am ET when I leave for the afternoon. Because I have a cash account, I have to wait three (3) days after I sell out of a position for cash to settle, and because I was 90% long going into this week, I have until Thursday before most of my cash is released. This, my good friends, is the meaning of the "Cash Money" portion of this post's very title. Not only have I done well this week through great execution, but I have also stuck to my goal(s) that I set for this week which makes me feel extremely comfortable.

There are two reasons as to why I want to be full cash prior to the opening bell tomorrow:
  1. The Real GDP Report arriving at 8:30am ET tomorrow scares me to death.
  2. We're getting technically chippy at the top of these indices.
With that being said, I move on to the numerical meaning of the "Blackjack" portion of this post's title and introduce to you twenty-one (21) tickers that still look technically solid. With the market the way it is, I will not be entering any new positions until I see the impact of Thursday's Economic Data. If I were to call an audible and get in prior to Thursday or at some point during Thursday's trading session, however, I would go to this list to find a ticker to buy. The alternate meaning to the "Blackjack" reference is the gambling and increased risk you're taking, betting on a sketchy Economic report that could make or break this market. Trade accordingly.

This morning, I split my charts up into sections, as I have some ETFs to help diagnose the state of individual sectors and industries. Let's start by reviewing the crazy action in the Health Care sector:

XLV 1 Year, Daily
Neutral flag breakout on Thursday of last week that continued to build strength into the weekend - Coming up on a crucial resistance (29.14) that could hold up the entire sector if it's not broken

ANPI 9 Month, Daily
Tightening symmetrical triangle on a total volume decline - Watch for some sort of "tell" going into today (5d/10d SMA cross, volume breakout, fundamental news, etc.) to determine future direction

ONTY 3 Month, Daily
Ascending triangle price pattern that's holding on extremely weak volume - Guided by the SMAs and the ascending trendline, ONTY looks ripe for a continued move higher

THC 3 Month, Daily
Tightening ascending triangle on low overall volume - Waiting for the 5d SMA to retest the 10d SMA in order to see some type of price movement; also looking for a continued hold in the ascending trendline

Let's switch over to the industry of which is my personal favorite, Shipping:

IYT 3 Month, Daily
Ascending triangle price pattern on low overall volume - Obvious breakout within the triple SMA combination, looking for 67.94 to break via a volume breakout

IYT 1 Year, Daily
Longer-termed scale of IYT - the missing piece of the Transportation puzzle is volume, and until we get some, Transportation is going no where

EGLE 6 Month, Daily
Descending wedge price pattern on a total volume decline - Continue to wait for a 5d/10d SMA Cross price pop, and watch to see if the price begins to anticipate the move by slowly beginning to push off of the ascending trendline

NM 6 Month, Daily
Ascending wedge, relatively choppy price pattern - Could be finishing up a two-day bull flag that will most likely give the price a base to move higher

Next, I want to review some Metal tickers that have a strong technical pattern whose fundamental background deals with mining a little bit of steel:

SLX 1 Year, Daily
The SLX must breakout above the 49.45 price level in order to continue higher - Watching for the triple SMA combination holds and hopefully bolsters the price of the SLX enough to push it through 49.45 and hold it throughout one (1) trading session

CPSL 9 Month, Daily
Ascending triangle price pattern, currently testing the ascending trendline and the 50d SMA in order to find support - Watch volume!

HL 9 Month, Daily
Choppy volume in the midst of an ascending wedge - watching for some interesting price action to the upside as the pattern tightens

PAL 3 Month, Daily
Low volume ascending triangle price pattern that's currently retesting the ascending trendline for support - Watch the 5d/10d Cross possibility, as this would confirm the coming of a high probability trade

Following the Metal tickers are the Technology tickers I had in mind:

XLK 1 Year, Daily
Above the 20.00 resistance in a total volume decline that looks quite sketchy - Look for the 20.00 level as a support AND as a resistance, as XLK could consolidate around this price level

CHINA 3 Month, Daily
Descending triangle price pattern w/ a fake volume breakout from Friday to Monday followed by a slight pullback in volume and price during yesterday's trading session - Watching for 2.50 to hold in order to hold any inclination of getting long

IO 6 Month, Daily
Ascending wedge that's being supported through the 100d SMA and the ascending trendline - Wait for either a breakout above the descending triangle or a continued consolidation throughout the pinch of IO's price action

Second to last, we move to the Financial sector to look at some Regional Bank tickers:

IAT 9 Month, Daily
Consolidation in between 20.00 support and 21.40 resistance - Great volume on yesterday's Doji day, looking forward to seeing where IAT goes from here

PCBC 6 Month, Daily
Ascending triangle price pattern with momentum beginning to develop via the double SMA combination - Holding ascending trendline well, would love to see some serious volume accumulation to support a move higher

SUSQ 3 Month, Daily
Neutral flag on a total volume decline - Watching the 20d SMA in order to support the two-day, low volume distribution bull flag that has been developing since Monday

Finally, we take a look at two of my favorite Retailers:

LEE 6 Month, Daily
Ascending triangle on extremely weak volume - Looking for volume accumulation to being building as well as a support base that holds the 20d SMA

PSUN 9 Month, Daily
Ascending triangle price pattern being supported by the 50d SMA and the 100d SMA on weak volume accumulation - Look for a gradual increase along the ascending trendline until volume begins to show signs of serious strength

Please don't forget the seriousness of the Real GDP Report. The tickers above are great tickers, but when the broad market begins to drop, not many tickers go up. Remember that full cash is always the exit strategy I take if I don't feel comfortable participating in the market, and trust me, it's never a bad thing to just sit on the sidelines and watch the game from the bench for a little.

Good luck during today's trading session!


ZM

| | edit post

Pre-Market 5

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 8/25/2009 08:41:00 AM 0 comments
Morning All!

Thought I'd put together a quick list of tickers that I like before the opening bell, so without further ado, let's hit the technicals:

AXL 3 Month, Daily
Classic bull flag w/ low volume distribution pullback - Looking for 5.70 to hold support

CERS 6 Month, Daily
Developing rounded bottom - Watch for total volume decline and consolidation around 2.07 until the ascending trendline and 20d SMA catch up with the price action

CHINA 3 Month, Daily
Volume breakout on a two day price pop - the descending trendline is still holding the price in check, but if volume accumulation persists, look for a price breakout as well (5d/10d SMA Cross)

CIT 6 Month, Daily
Mixed price around the 1.35 price level, total volume decline - Watch for consolidation around 1.35 if volume begins to get choppy (5d/10d SMA Cross w/ fast approaching descending trendline also something to watch)

HERO 6 Month, Daily
Ascending triangle price pattern still holding on a pick up in volume accumulation - Watch for the break above the 5.00 price level with momentum (5d/10d SMA Cross & volume accumulation) backing the pop

That's all for now all - Good luck during today's trading session!


ZM


| | edit post

For the Week Ahead - 8/24/09 to 8/28/09

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 8/23/2009 05:59:00 PM 0 comments
Good evening MJTT!

This coming week is going to be hectic for me, as my personal life begins to become more rigorous and I prepare to become a part-time trader again. This will NOT effect the blog much at all until January of 2010, and until that time, I have no interest in discussing the minor adjustments that will take place.

If you recall from last Friday's tweet, I'm sitting on five (5) positions going into tomorrow. Before we begin to review this week's Economic Data and MJTT Watch List Updates, let's go through the charts of my current positions to analyze why I'm still in them (entry price and projected exit price target on all charts):

AGEN 6 Month, Daily
Ascending triangle price pattern on extremely low overall volume - holding support @ the 50d SMA, watching the 5d/10d SMA cross for a price pop.

YRCW 9 Month, Daily
Symmetrical triangle price pattern w/ a 2-day bull flag developing on low volume distribution - a price pop is looking amazing for YRCW w/ a strong support @ the 20d SMA and the ascending trendline.

CYTR 6 Month, Daily
High probability trade if Health Care continues to break out, holding price support @ 0.86 - Looking for momentum via volume accumulation and a 5d/10d SMA Cross.

SPPI 6 Month, Daily
Another high probability trade if Health Care continues to break out - holding ascending trendline well w/ 50d SMA backing it up, looking for another heavy volume accumulation day tomorrow.

COIN 6 Month, Daily
Neutral wedge price pattern, very similar to YRCW setup - Needs heavy volume accumulation in order to get a break above 1.25

A lot of the trades I'm currently in are either because of a broad market outlook (the sector breakout in Health Care via XLV, for example) or high probability trades whose price patterns are by the book. Because of this criteria, I have high expectations for these trades, as they are setting up to return profits and not losses.

With the position update out of the way, let's get into the Economic Calendar analysis for this week:
  • Monday - Nothing of Interest
  • Tuesday - Standard & Poors Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00am), Consumer Confidence (10:00am)
  • Wednesday - Durable Goods Orders (8:30am), New Homes Sales (10:00am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am)
  • Thursday - GDP (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)
  • Friday - Personal Income & Outlays (8:30am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55am)
Although Consumer Confidence and Durable Orders are two important Economic indicators, the most important Economic indicator for a country is its GDP report. As seen in the list above, Thursday is the big day for the U.S. and will no doubt be a game changer with the current technical atmosphere being bullish. Real GDP Growth Quarter-Over-Quarter currently has an analyst estimate range of -1.6% to -1.0%.

As for the Sector Watch List Update, the Chart.ly link of all of the watch lists can be seen below:


That's all for tonight everyone - Catch you during PreMarket!


ZM

| | edit post

This Morning's Post...

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 8/21/2009 03:18:00 AM 0 comments
... Can be found at the following link below:


I will shoot out a tweet in the AM when it's posted - Check in on it every now and then, for it should be up early in the morning.

Good luck to everyone during today's trading session!


ZM


UPDATE - This week's edition of "The Micro Take" can be found here at the link below:


Another little something special I have for you guys is this month's predictions about Gold and Crude Oil made by Adam Hewison from INO.com. Hewison NAILED the calls and I would bet is reaping some serious benefits from them - Check it out:


Trade well today - the Micro tickers in my article are setting up!

| | edit post

Health Care STOCKS Ain't Nationalized...

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 8/20/2009 01:20:00 AM 0 comments
So what if our Health Care System is under fire by a President who is worse than that of James Buchanan (Pennsylvania represent)? There is no reason to rationalize your Health Care sector stocks, as the sector is currently in a neutral flag technical pattern that needs volume for a substantial breakout. Yesterday afternoon, I wrote a post describing my love affair for XLV, and my opinion has not changed from this post by any means:


XLE and XLB will be discussed Friday morning via "The Micro Take" on Davian Letter. This morning on MJTT, we'll be concentrating on a couple of micro cap tickers out of the Health Care sector that present interesting speculative and swing trades going into the latter of this week. First, let's review the XLV chart with today's final hours of trading involved:

XLV 9 Month, Daily
As seen in the chart above, the neutral flag is evident and is looking to breakout big time (testing the waters with the slight push above 28.16 into the close) - More volume accumulation is necessary to breakout in my opinion.

Technically, XLV has looked strong since the March bottom and has flagged on several occasions, only to breakout and make a move higher each time. In my opinion, tomorrow is the biggest day of the week for XLV, as it will either breakout and go higher or cool down and continue to consolidate within its neutral flag.

With the technicals of XLV in mind, let's check out a couple of micro setups that look promising going into today and Friday:

VICL 9 Month, Daily
(Swing Trade): The bull flag continues, but the strength of the Health Care sector and some volume accumulation out of VICL should allow it to breakout.

CYTR 6 Month, Daily
(Swing Trade): Found substantial support at 0.86, volume accumulation was weak yesterday - 1.05 still short term price target. [DISCLAIMER: I have a position in CYTR]

INCY 9 Month, Daily
(Speculative Trade): Ascending triangle price pattern breakout on Monday of this week, Bump 'N' Run setup from Tuesday action (restest of 6.03 price as support), and finally a big price gain yesterday - Will look at today's action for guidance as to where to go from here.

BCRX 3 Month, Daily
(Swing Trade): Good volume accumulation this week, looking for a breakout about the descending trend line resistance from the wedge price pattern - 20d SMA and ascending trend line acting as solid support levels.

ARIA 9 Month, Daily
(Speculative Trade): Developing bull flag but being held in check by the 20d SMA - Wait another day to see if ARIA completes the 2-Day Bull Flag Swing by testing the 2.00 price level on low volume distribution.

THC 1 Year, Daily
(Speculative Trade): Very similar to ARIA, watching for the 2-Day Bull Flag Swing to initiate during today's action - if no breakout occurs, watch for a continued low volume distribution price decline.

SPPI 9 Month, Daily
(Swing Trade): Retesting 6.00 price level as a support, watching volume and the 50d SMA to give me a "tell" as to when SPPI may be in for a big move.

OCLS 9 Month, Daily
(Speculative Trade): Similar to ARIA and THC, waiting to see a high price/low volume distribution decline in OCLS to confirm the 2-Day Bull Flag Swing - Held 20d SMA and descending trend line resistance quite well, looking for 5d SMA to cross above 10d SMA to indicate some type of momentum pop.

Keep your eye on the following things with the tickers above and you will successfully be able to initiate some winning trades from the Health Care sector:
  • Volume
  • The 2-Day Bull Flag Swing
  • 5d/10d SMA Momentum Indicator
  • Support/Resistance levels
Good luck with today's trading session!


ZM

| | edit post

The Monday Evening Index Run Down

Written by Zachary A. Musso On 8/18/2009 12:39:00 AM 0 comments
Good Evening MJTT!

Welcome to the first post on the new and improved site! It was an exciting morning setting up the domain, picking out the template, and working with what to put on the site itself. The sidebar to the right of this post will look very similar, as it is nearly identical (minus the order) of my previous site's sidebar. The top of the site is different, as you can now go and search around the Twittersphere via my profile, BULLS on WALLstreet, and StockTwits. You can also search around the other sites that I write and do live videos for (Davian Letter, Chart.ly Blog, iBC, Live Stream, and Daily Markets). The box above the posts allows you to watch MJTT on Live Stream by going full screen and entering my mind as I show you charts from the market sessions on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays (with the exception of today which is rescheduled for tomorrow from 5:00pm ET to 5:30pm ET).

Two orders of business before I begin my Index Run Down deal with Ads and Sites for the new and improved MJTT. As you can see by snooping around, there are four (4) ad spaces that anyone can get from me in order to put up a cool ad about your site, business, or anything else stock related. The price for the ad space is still to be determined, but will be very affordable for anyone willing to purchase them. If you do not want to buy an ad, you can ask to be added to the "Noteworthy Financial Information Sites" on the sidebar to the right. Either way (ad or site request), please email me at zmoose12@mjtt.net to let me know what you're going to be doing.

On to the post! Today's action was pure craziness, as the $DJI dropped exactly 2% and the other indices followed suit. Tonight, I thought I would give you a little insight as to where we are on a couple of main indices using four (4) different time frames for each index - the 20 Day 15 Minute, the 1 Year Daily, the 5 Year Weekly, and the 20 Year Monthly. After each chart, I'll be reviewing the technical patterns and whatever else is on the chart in order for you to see what's going on and where we could go in the coming days, weeks, and months. Because of the time I've put into the index analysis, I will not be posting my Top 10 Micro Picks as I said I would (apologies). So, without further ado, let's get started on some index analysis, beginning with the $DJI:

$DJI 20 Day, 15 Minute
Bollinger Bands are tightening, as the $DJI is stuck in between a very tight range of 9125 and 9170 - Looking at the "Daddy Moose" trading guidance system below the chart, you can see that the Fast Stochastic's %K failed to break above the RSI(20) towards the close this afternoon, thus showing weakness in the short term.
PERSONAL BIAS - BEARISH

$DJI 1 Year, Daily
The Daily chart is very basic, as the $DJI looks as though it's beginning to develop a bull flag with support at 9026 - No moving average made any impact on this chart, and the ascending trend line will not hold a support unless the $DJI tanks to 8750.
PERSONAL BIAS - NONE

$DJI 5 Year, Weekly
The Weekly shows a double support (8878 and 9088) and a resistance at 9454 - the 20pd SMA matches the ascending trend line support well, therefore if the double support doesn't hold, the SMA/trend line support should.
PERSONAL BIAS - BULLISH

$DJI 20 Year, Monthly
The Monthly chart again shows a double support (8298 and 9043) and a resistance of 9785, with the 200pd SMA being broken last month - the 5pd/10pd SMA cross in equities normally brings on heavy momentum, but only after the stock pulls back; in the case of the $DJI, we're now in the "Pullback Stage."
PERSONAL BIAS - BULLISH

Let's move on to the $SPX, as it is the most similar to the $DJI:

$SPX 20 Day, 15 Minute
Very similar indicator reactions as the $DJI - 969 is the spot to watch if things get ugly, for if this level fails, we will see a continued 9 point drop down to 960.
PERSONAL BIAS - BEARISH

$SPX 1 Year, Daily
Today's big red day will be approaching the 943 price support, the 50d SMA support, and the ascending trend line support in the next couple of days if the $SPX continues to drop - the 943 to 1007 range could last for a while.
PERSONAL BIAS - BULLISH

$SPX 5 Year, Weekly
Four equally split price levels of importance (956 acting as support and 1044 acting as resistance with 869 and 1133 acting as outlier price targets) - the ascending trend line and the 20pd SMA hold significant support levels if the 956 price support doesn't hold.
PERSONAL BIAS - BULLISH

$SPX 20 Year, Monthly
Complete analysis of the last two recessions that directly impacted the $SPX - The $SPX chart is so mixed here that, when looking at the monthly, it seems as though we have no real direction at all. The 5pd/10pd SMA cross is throwing off pullback effects that coincides with all of the resistance pressure via the 200pd SMA and the 1015 price resistance, while the 666 bottom's ascending trend line continue to move the $SPX higher.
PERSONAL BIAS - NONE

The $COMPX is next, as we see our first major difference from the $DJI and the $SPX:

$COMPX 20 Day, 15 Minute
The $COMPX is currently sitting on its main support of 1931 as its Fast Stochastic %K indicator failed to break above its RSI(20), which is bad for the bulls - In my opinion, I think the $COMPX will continue to drop due to its numerous breakout failures (5 to be exact) around the 2015 price level. I believe this even if the $SPX and $DJI begin to find a bottom and hold their current levels.
PERSONAL BIAS - BEARISH

$COMPX 1 Year, Daily
The three support combination (price, SMA, trend) should be able to hold in the next couple of days - through a candlestick charting theory, I'm looking for a three day bullish reversal (Bullish Inside Up for all of you candlestick-ers out there) and a gap fill in order to continue our run higher and complete our correction.
PERSONAL BIAS - NONE

$COMPX 5 Year, Weekly
Tightening wedge price pattern within the Weekly chart of the index - the 1890 support and the ascending trend line support will be the deciding factor for where the $COMPX goes in the next week or two.
PERSONAL BIAS - NONE

$COMPX 20 Year, Monthly
The overall trend for the $COMPX is still descending, but the mixed sentiment we saw from the monthly chart in the $DJI is quite similar to this monthly chart - in my opinion, bullish momentum is still evident, but is short lived if volume doesn't keep up in this market and if the supports for the $COMPX do not hold.
PERSONAL BIAS - NONE

Finally, we'll review the $RUT and it's unique pattern, slightly different from the other indices:

$RUT 20 Day, 15 Minute
The current range for the $RUT is tight (545 to 552), but in my opinion, I can see a slight pop off of the open tomorrow because of the double bottom that developed over the span of today's session - "Daddy Moose" is bullish, as the %K has bottom and hasn't tested the RSI(20) yet.
PERSONAL BIAS - BULLISH

$RUT 1 Year, Daily
SMAs had no relevance when looking at the Daily chart, thus we are left with the support and resistance levels on the $RUT in order to make a decision as to where we may go in the future - 551 was broken today, leaving the $RUT with the 536 support.
PERSONAL BIAS - NONE

$RUT 5 Year, Weekly
To me, the Weekly is giving off impressions of a possible bull flag with 536 being the support level that should be held in the next few days if the pullback continues - the 20pd SMA and the ascending trend line are holding almost identical support levels that are approaching the declining price.
PERSONAL BIAS - BULLISH

$RUT 20 Year, Monthly
The overhead resistance above the 579 level is strong (20pd SMA and the 606 level), but the lack of momentum to move anywhere and consolidate in August seems to be setting up September for explosive action.
PERSONAL BIAS - BULLISH

Say what you will, but the charts don't lie - I call them how I see them, and at this stage in the game, it seems as though we're witnessing a pullback of epic proportions for future bullish setups.

Trade accordingly.


ZM

| | edit post

MJTT Disclaimer

I am not, by any means, a financial analyst. All posts and tickers mentioned in them are my opinions and my opinions only. If you buy and sell ANY tickers because of my recommendation, you are trading at your own risk.

Zachary A. Musso - MJTT Owner/Author

Trader Bio

My Photo
Fully Discretionary, Speculative Futures Trader - Technical Analysis Junkie - Bentley University Class of 2014.

Loyal Readers

Vote for MJTT

Finance Top Blogs BlogRankers.com

Twitter Updates

MJTT on Facebook

MJTT Archives