MJTT

That's All Folks...

2009-10-16T10:51:00.005-04:00

Loyal Reader of MooseJaw Jabber: Technical Trading,

Today is one of mixed emotions, as MJTT has finally grown enough to allow me to branch off to bigger and better things. My run on Blogger has been one to remember, and I thank ALL of my loyal readers, fans, and critics - all of you have significantly helped me thus far, and I hope you will continue to do so.

Starting this evening, I will be writing exclusively for The Davian Letter. This community of traders, investors, and hedgies is absolutely phenomenal - not only do they know their stuff, but their track record is consistent and has outperformed the S&P500 because of their exceptional skill. I have been given the honor to write full-time for them, and I would be a fool to turn it down. My contact information will remain the same as in my profile on this blog, so if you ever want to chat or have a question about my rationale, feel free to call, email, or tweet - I will respond in a timely fashion as I have in the past.

Thank you all again for making MJTT what it is and was - I look forward to having all of you follow me to The Davian Letter and learn from the best community of traders out there!

Zachary A. Musso

Author and Founder of MooseJaw Jabber: Technical Trading

The Big 10k

2009-10-14T23:28:00.008-04:00

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting 10,000 yesterday doesn't phase me one bit - in fact, I could care less. There, I said it, the cat is now out of the bag... But why so blunt about it?

In my honest opinion as a chartist, in order for the market to really enter its next HUGE price push higher, I feel it's necessary to see ALL of the market indices break above their current levels of resistance; this means that the $DJI, $SPX, $COMPX, and $RUT all must breakout. Why don't I really care about the $DJI surpassing 10,000? Because only 3 of the 4 indices are breaking out on their extremely bullish, 2 year weekly charts - the $SPX is the ONLY index that didn't break above its strong resistance level (1,100 is my target for the $SPX).

Does this mean I'm not bullish? Hell no - I'm strategically bullish right now, attempting to find the next best sector to hit and run from when the next leg higher takes a breather. This leads me into tonight's topic: the Financial sector. Earlier in the week, I was skeptical about how the markets would respond to the big corporate earnings popping up left and right. Although there was a day of weakness, the markets have taken an overall turn for the better and are beginning to look technically bullish yet again.

This is where my Financial sector theory comes in. During the first week to two weeks of the last leg higher, the first thing to explode to the upside was the Financial sector (specifically the Regional Banking industry). I began looking into some micro/small cap tickers in my Financial sector watch list this evening, and low and behold, the technical setups look solid.

Before I begin hitting you with specific tickers, however, let's review the action out of XLF and IAT (both charts are from after yesterday's market session):

XLF 2 Year, Weekly

IAT 6 Month, Daily

As you can see from the XLF chart, the bullish technical aspect coming out of the Financial sector is really beginning to take a turn for the better. The breakout above the long-term, descending trend line resistance is something to take note of, as nothing is technically restraining XLF from reaching 17.44 with the exception of the 100w SMA.

The action out of IAT since the beginning of October has been fantastic, with today's large price move pushing the 5d SMA across the 20d SMA and giving IAT the push it needed to get it past that 21.25 price resistance. IAT's ascending triangle price pattern currently has a price resistance at 21.84, which, if hit, will signal the second touch of this level. Normally, the 1-2-3 Resistance Test is highly probable and has a very low fail rate; the second touch of the price resistance's risk/reward is 60/40, so do as I do and be strategically bullish rather than absurdly bullish when it comes to the Regional Banking industry.

The IAT chart and explanation above should convey to all of you that I am still playing the waiting game with the Financial sector but am preparing to pounce when the time calls for it. For now, check out these micro/small cap setups - the explanations of these charts will have to wait until later this evening, for I'm running low on time in between class:

KFN 3 Month, Daily

NPBC 3 Month, Daily

HBAN 6 Month, Daily

BEE 3 Month, Daily

FBC 3 Month, Daily

Remember - strategically bullish rather than absurdly bullish is the way to trade a market that has SO many bulls. Buy crazy traders aren't as successful as traders who don't mind sitting out every now and then and watching.

Good luck to all of you into the afternoon hours!

Sector Watch List Updates

2009-10-12T08:56:00.002-04:00

Good Morning MJTT!

I have no classes on this fine United States holiday, thus I will be trading throughout the morning and a little into the early afternoon. The only thing I have for you this morning is my FINVIZ Finalized Sector Watch List Updates in spreadsheet form. I will be doing this every Sunday when I exclusively move to the Davian Letter, but the setup will be more professional and will have more information; this includes a PDF file with the FINVIZ Sector Watch List Updates and my favorite charts of a couple tickers from these lists. This week, the updates are pretty basic:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tN9zKTGe6UbJ9mPuD55SGcg&output=html

Tonight, I will be hosting a Late Night Live Stream on the MooseJaw Jabber: Technical Trading Live Stream Channel to review how some of these tickers performed after today's market session. Time is still to be determined, so stay tuned!

Good luck today everyone!

Strategy Introduction: My Options Thoughts

2009-10-08T22:48:00.003-04:00

Good evening MJTT!

Tonight is indeed a special night, as tonight is my first of many strategy posts that will be released in the month of October. When the exclusive move to the Davian Letter occurs next Friday, the week after will be filled with delicious strategy greatness. Until then, however, the standard technical analysis applies!

Tonight we're going to be discussing my Options Trading strategy that I've been briefly scripting over the past week. Because I am a rookie when it comes to Options, I'm ALWAYS looking for constructive criticism, innovative ideas, mentors, and of course reading material.

** As an aside to show you how ballin' Twitter is, last night I shot a tweet to @Aiki14 to get his take on the options reading material he was delving into. Just from that tweet, I received five others from all different people sharing their options education ideas with me and my rookie-ness. This helping hand is what makes Twitter so awesome **

My dabbling in the past week with my Virtual Trading Portfolio (play money, if you will) has allowed me to get the basic concepts of Calls and Puts, as well as how an option contract works and is priced. Last week, I decided to take the initiative and buy my first Call Option contract for X:

Looking at the option spread and the 1 year daily chart, I thought that X had the potential to reach its 45 price resistance level.
Breaking the trade down from a technical standpoint, I went through my routine and fiddled with my possible price targets.
I then chose my strike price - just in case X stalled out before reaching the 45 price level, I decided to go with the 44 strike price to play it safe.
After choosing my strike price, I found the option chart that followed the specific strike (with the 44 strike in X, the options chart is FBJ-JV on ProphetCharts in the thinkorswim Platform).
Reviewing the FBJ-JV chart, I realized that the price was closing in on a key support level of 0.85. With my thoughts on the Basic Materials and Energy sectors, let alone the overall market, I decided to set a triggered buy towards the end of the trading session for the October '09 X single spread call options at strike 44. I ended up acquiring the contract at 0.75.

Not only was this an interesting trade to make, it was also very different than trading equities where as there are more variables to consider. The main variable to consider is your long term take on the underlying equity (in this case, X). This trade was carried out last Friday, and my Call option strategy was ultimately a success, as I integrated my Basic Materials/Energy theory that I used for my equity trading into this options trade. I sold the Call option this Tuesday at 1.23 for an overall gain of +0.48, +64.00% - not half bad for the first options trade ever made, whether the money used is real or fake.

The next leg of my options strategy is to trade a Put option contract. Because the market has been rising lately, I haven't been able to find a ticker that has much downside potential. Over the next week, I'll be hunting large cap tickers that are looking to technically breakdown, and from there I will outline my Put option contract trade as I did with my Call contract option trade.

My goal with options is to virtually trade them until January 2010 - at this point in time, I'll be integrating my options trading in with my equity trading. For the rest of October and all of November and December, I will be keeping you updated on my options strategies. These are NOT to be taken as legitimate trades, but rather journal entries that allow all of you to see my successes and blunders while virtually trading options.

To end off this post, I thought I'd throw a Position Update in your direction:

Holding CSUN @ an average price of 4.27
Holding GSI @ 3.77
Bought COIN today @ 1.25

That's all for this evening everyone - good luck tomorrow!

Breaking Down the Basic Materials & Energy Sectors

2009-10-06T23:35:00.009-04:00

A couple of announcements before we begin tonight's post:

The October Update can be seen here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBehW-HMJbg.
The "Stop/Limit Orders and Setting Targets" post I discussed last evening will be the main focus of this Friday's "Mental Take" article at the Davian Letter.
If you didn't catch my man The Chart Addict from iBC last night on StockTwits.tv, go watch the On-Demand video RIGHT NOW.
I will be outlining my Virtual Option Strategy tomorrow evening, so stay tuned.
I have yet another college entrance exam on Saturday, so I may be "out of the office" so to speak on Saturday.

Tonight's post is filled with charts and insight on a couple of Micro/Small Cap trades within the Basic Materials and Energy sectors, as well as a review of the ETFs within the two sectors.

I'll start off by saying that there's a ton of potential for further upside if the dollar continues to decline. As we've seen since the March bottom, when the dollar sucks and commodities rock and roll, the overall market indices tend to increase. To outline this, let's first look at the performance of the /DX (Dollar Index) over the past two years:

/DX 2 Year, Daily

Although this chart looks like a technical mess, it outlines the entirety of the U.S. Dollar Index during the beginning stages of the Financial Crisis. The double top (outlined by the two yellow boxes) developed during the two market index bottoms. The double top brought on an enormous wave of volume accumulation and price upside to the Basic Materials and Energy sectors. The rest is March 6, 2009 history.

Today, we experienced a infinitesimal move to the upside, as the /DX attempts to double bottom. Although this is a valid possibility, I personally feel that there isn't enough Dollar Lovers out there to push the equities markets down for the sake of saving our currency. If worst comes to worst, I truly feel the /DX will consolidate between the 76.00-77.00 range until touching upon the descending trend line resistance and taking a nose dive. All of this depends on how much volume the /DX can grasp over the course of the "Back Nine."

With this /DX introduction setting the stage, let's move into looking at my two favorite industries in times of commodity explosions - Oil (via OIH) and Gold (via GLD):

OIH 2 Year, Weekly

As stated on multiple occasions for months now, OIH needed volume accumulation SO badly in order to break 119.21. The volume accumulation into this week so far has been astronomical, increasing each day at a rate of approximately 1.1M shares a day. If the volume persists and the price action out of OIH continues, 125 will be reached with ease.

GLD 2 Year, Weekly

GLD has been making headlines all week as the price of Gold has made all time highs of close to 1050 an ounce. GLD has been known to take a breather and consolidate after major runs like this, but the two week bull flag that looked like a potential breakdown was the fake-break that lead me to put Gold aside. At these levels, you're chasing GLD and not paying attention to your charts - sure, the price of Gold has a ton of upside with the dollar self-destructing, but do you REALLY want to get in now? Not one bit. Be patient and wait for your high-and-tight consolidation week and get in then. Any low volume distribution seen from now until next Wednesday on the daily charts should be taken to heart as conviction that GLD has a high probability of further upside.

As of now, my main concentrations are what I like to call the aftermath commodities (commodities that like to follow up the overall action in Gold and Oil). Although I've talked about this concept before, I'll remind you that Steel is an aftermath metal (meaning it follows up the action in Gold), while Coal is an aftermath energy resource (meaning that it follows up the action in Oil). After scrounging over 61 charts of Micro/Small cap tickers out of the Basic Materials and Energy sectors, the tickers charted and outlined below are my favorite. Some of the tickers are in the Oil and Gold industries, while others are in "aftermath" industries:

PKD 3 Month, Daily

Ascending triangle price pattern, overall volume decline with volume accumulation picking up over the last two days - looking for 5.71 price resistance to either be broken OR touched with 5d/10d SMA Momentum Cross.

ALY 6 Month, Daily

Ascending triangle price pattern with volume accumulation picking up over the last week - looking for 4.70 price resistance to either be broken OR touched with 5d/10d SMA Momentum Cross.

ICO 6 Month, Daily

Ascending triangle price pattern, overall volume decline with volume accumulation picking up over the last two days - looking for 4.49 price resistance to either be broken OR touched with 5d/10d SMA Momentum Cross.

USU 6 Month, Daily

Symmetrical triangle price pattern with center price level at 4.85 - looking for a low volume distribution pullback off of this price level, waiting for either the 50d SMA to be touched OR the 5d/10d SMA Momentum Cross to develop.

IVAN 3 Month, Daily

Descending triangle price pattern with today's daily candle being supported by the 5d/10d/20d SMAs - Speculative ticker to WATCH develop, not ready for trading yet.

CPSL 6 Month, Daily

Symmetrical triangle price pattern with low overall volume and a lack of volume accumulation over the past three days - looking to consolidate around the ascending trend line and between the 50d SMA and the 100d SMA, needs volume to make a move.

GTE 6 Month, Daily

Ascending triangle price pattern with a fake break off of the open on Friday - overall volume has been in decline since the end of June, looking for tomorrow to be a red day on low volume distribution to solidify the completion of the 5d/10d SMA Momentum Cross.

Watch for tomorrow to be another day of consolidation before the International Trade statistics at 8:30am ET on Friday. Commodities, specifically metals and oil, are obvious resources that are heavily traded amongst the U.S. and the foreign countries the U.S. trades with. If we happen to see more of a bullish forecast for International Trade come Friday, I think we'll see even more strength in the Basic Materials and Energy sector. With these guidelines, tomorrow would be an ideal day for buying if you believe in a bullish International Trade statistic.

Good luck to all tomorrow and don't chase tickers that are too far ahead of themselves!!

Shady Aftermath? No - Metal & Energy Aftermath!

2009-10-05T21:16:00.006-04:00

Good evening MJTT, and what a start to the new week!

Tonight, I'll be discussing two ETFs I've been watching since the middle of last week - SLX and KOL. These two ETFs are ones that should be watched if the Basic Materials and Energy sectors continue their runs from today's market session.

Before I begin my topic of conversation for the evening, I'd like to take a minute and talk about something I've gotten down to a science since the beginning of September. Over the past couple of weeks, I've been throwing out a ton of "if" scenarios. Some have paid off, like the Oil/Gold trades in September; some have not, such as my recent Healthcare and Tech picks. A lot of my trades and ideas are speculative and somewhat risky. Since school has started, however, I've developed a knack for minimizing risk and maximizing profit using stops and limits. Because I don't have enough time to sit next to my monitors like I did during summer, learning to utilize stops and limits has really helped me worry less during the day.

Setting stops and limits can be somewhat difficult to a new trader, as most new traders feel compelled to watch the intra-day chart like a hawk after entering a position. Every time their position goes down a cent, they begin to sweat and get filled with emotion, asking questions to themselves like the ones seen below:

Should I have made that trade?
Why is it going down?
Why isn't my trade working?

If you find yourself asking these questions, try to begin integrating stop and limit orders into your strategy to help you relax as a trader. When using these orders, you must also learn how to set reliable and reachable targets that you can foresee the ticker you're trading hit within your timeline.

The above is a preface to tomorrow night's educational post that talks about the strategy of using stop/limit orders and setting appropriate targets. This strategy can help the new and experienced traders alike, so tune in tomorrow to read my take on this unique style of trading.

For now, let's check out the technical aspects of SLX and KOL. When it comes down to these two ETFs, I'll be looking for GLD and OIH to continue their run higher from today. As GLD is closing in on breaking above resistance and OIH holds its ascending trend line, SLX and KOL are two ETFs that normally have a strong correlation to the prices of Gold and Oil.

SLX 2 Year, Weekly

As seen from the charts above, SLX continues its tightening symmetrical triangle price run, supported by the 5w and 10w SMA. A break above 54.44 and the strong, descending trend line is a necessity for SLX to really break out and run wild - a break to new highs in the price of Gold should push SLX and the price of Steel over the hump as it did during the last price skyrocket in Gold.

KOL 2 Year, Weekly

When discussing the nature of KOL, the price is (like SLX) still within the confines of its tightening, intermediate-term symmetrical triangle. The two-week bullish flag candle formation is one of my favorite formations on daily and weekly charts - as you can see from the KOL chart above, you'll notice that this formation is currently holding up nicely. Personally, I feel that if the price of Oil can continue higher above 72.50, we'll see other Energy sector industries (Coal included) begin to spur up momentum and run higher as well.

The Basic Materials and Energy sectors are driven by Gold and Oil, respectively. When these two commodities stop pumping, so do the other commodities based around them. Steel and Coal are driven by Gold and Oil, thus watching for slight moves in the prices of Gold and Oil is crucial to the performance of Steel and Coal.

Good luck to everyone tomorrow - remember, it's earnings season, so anything can happen.

Tonight's Post...

2009-10-01T22:20:00.002-04:00

... Can be found on the Chart.ly Blog!

http://blog.chart.ly/

The chartists from the Chart.ly Blog are some of the greatest I've ever been apart of. While you're there, check out some of the more recent articles - they're intriguing!

Today's statistics are as follows:

Stopped out of SONS for a -0.11, -5.09% loss.
Stopped out of ICO for a -0.35, -8.33% loss.
Held CEGE and CSUN into tomorrow.

Good luck tomorrow everyone!

Aftermath Monday Mayhem

2009-09-28T22:41:00.010-04:00

Good morning all!

I told all of you yesterday that I'd have updated watch lists ready for all to see. As I sat down to write essay upon essay and application upon application for the colleges I've been applying to, however, I realized that I did not have the time to do so. This didn't bother me in the least bit, as I realized I needed to change it up a bit from my normal Micro/Small Cap jargon.

Today's action showed all of us traders that trade day in and day out that "she ain't done breathin' yet." Mother Market has some fight left in her, and although I whole-heartedly agree with @theEquilibrium's weekend tweet -

"After looking at hundreds of charts tonight - we're actually going lower this time, for real."

- there's always that possibility that the market will surprise us all with a drawn out consolidation and a push higher.

Tonight, I'll be doing a full index breakdown, starting with the $DJIA and continuing on with the $SPX, the $COMPX, and finally the $RUT. If you remember a couple of posts back when the markets were stuck in consolidation, I wrote an analytical post like this one in order to delineate a possible market direction. My goal with this post (like the one before) is to give all of you a different perspective on the different market indexes. Each index will have two different time frame charts (20 Day 15 Minute, and a 2 Year Weekly) with a separate analysis portion below each.

Without further ado, Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you this week's Aftermath Monday Mayhem:

$DJI 20 Day, 15 Minute

As you can see in the chart above, the $DJI is in the midst of about a week long consolidation. The MACDH is beginning to turn up for the better, while the %K statistic of the Fast Stochastic is closing in on a possible crossover of the RSI(20). To me, the $DJI looks somewhat bullish on a breakout above the current symmetrical triangle price pattern.

$DJI 2 Year, Weekly

On a weekly time frame, the $DJI could go either way. Personally, more of a pullback looks necessary before moving higher - touch upon the ascending trend line would be warmly welcomed if it comes on low volume distribution. The 100pd SMA and the 20pd SMA are beginning to act as support and resistance borders for the price of the $DJI if it makes a drastic move either higher or lower. As of now, I am ambivalent about the status of the $DJI.

$SPX 20 Day, 15 Minute

With a break above the 1058 price resistance early in the trading session, the $SPX currently sits in an intraday, descending triangle price pattern. A break above the descending trend line resistance will give the $SPX free range to hit 1074 yet again, especially with a recovering MACDH.

$SPX 2 Year, Weekly

The $SPX is in more of a tight situation than the $DJI, as the ascending triangle price pattern seen in the chart above is currently giving the $SPX less room to move up or down. I am waiting for either a quick breakout to 1097.50 OR a quick breakdown to the ascending trend line support (also supported by the 10pd SMA), followed by a big break to the upside. Looking at market sentiment OUTSIDE of this chart, the healthier move for the $SPX is the quick breakdown - this, however, seems highly unlikely when looking at the 20 Day, 15 Minute chart. Economic Data will most likely make or break the $SPX early in the week and set its tone for the "Back 9."

$COMPX 20 Day, 15 Minute

The $COMPX bottomed out on the %K statistic of the Fast Stochastic towards the middle portion of the trading session on Monday. The $COMPX was the only index to show a more prevalent Head & Shoulders price pattern. To me, this bodes somewhat negatively for the Technology sector, especially with the amount of resistance (descending trend line and 2140.50 price level) the $COMPX has above its closing price from yesterday. Holding on to the "Oversold" standard deviation line of the Bollinger Band, the action out of the $COMPX, in conjunction with the $SPX's action, could make or break where the markets end up in the very short-term.

$COMPX 2 Year, Weekly

The rising pennant (or rising wedge) price pattern is beginning to get extremely tight as it continues its ascension towards the 2167 price resistance. Although this price resistance is not out of the question, we must also look at the 200pd SMA as a strong, overhead resistance to the current 2167 price level. A breakout in the $COMPX is needed to keep this market not only from pulling back, not to mention alive - a strong volume and momentum push out of the Technology sector is all this market needs in order to not rollover.

$RUT 20 Day, 15 Minute

Like the $SPX, the intraday descending triangle price pattern will be a key player when it comes to telling the $RUT how far and how long. I see a possible consolidation among the price of the $RUT, as the RSI(20)'s patterns from yesterday's market strength look extremely similar to September 16-17 RSI(20)'s pattern - this allows me to conclude that a break above the descending trend line could end up being a fake break and a price "ride" along the 611.50 price support.

$RUT 2 Year, Weekly

Like the $COMPX, the rising pennant price pattern is evident when looking at the weekly time frame chart. The break above the 100pd SMA two weeks ago has set the $RUT up to use this particular SMA as a driving force to its price pattern's trend line resistance. The $RUT, like the $DJIA, has a lot of room to fluctuate between its support/resistance trend lines of its price pattern prior to reaching its next price level resistance (655). The uptrending pennant range trade is something I do not mind seeing over the next month when it comes to the $RUT and the Small Cap tickers.

Each one of these index charts, no matter what time frame it may be, tells a story. As you can see above, there are a lot of conflicting details from story to story, and right now, the story is beginning to get fuzzy with many chartists like myself. Although I did add two tester positions at the end of the trading session yesterday (SONS and ICO), I indicated that these are high risk positions that I am merely testing out. In my honest opinion, there is a lot resting on Wednesday/Thursday's Economic Data - if September was a good month for the economy, the impact seen across the general markets will be astronomical.

Stay light, keep your head on a swivel, and most importantly, trade what the market gives you!

200th Post!

2009-09-27T23:09:00.003-04:00

Nothing to be impressed about either - all I have for you this evening (due to my ill preparation for writing a post this evening) are two links of market information that could be beneficial to your trading this week. The first link is the Economic Calendar (courtesy of Econoday) and the second link is the Top 25/Bottom 25 Screen (courtesy of Prophet.net). Without further ado, let's bring on the links:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tCTod43UzgADJ8aGRermAQQ&output=html

Obviously, the two biggest days of the week (let alone the tone setters for the first week to two weeks of October) are Wednesday and Thursday. My game plan for this ENTIRE week is to stay thin, agile, and not to have more than two (2) positions open at one time (I normally have 4 positions open during normal market circumstances).

Moving on to the Top 25/Bottom 25 Screen:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t2OY5nVNxgVEjnvqiGTvDXw&output=html

If we expect to see any strength in the markets at all this week, it'll come out of the Basic Materials, Energy, and Technology sectors. If we see further consolidation out of these sectors' major industries (Gold, Oil, and Semiconductors), prepare yourself for a large move in either direction.

Tomorrow night's post will be more like a 200th-Post birthday, as I'll be adding my watch list revamps from this weekend's research and Monday's market action. Good luck to all tomorrow!

Quick Position Update

2009-09-21T16:16:00.002-04:00

I am still in the midst of analyzing what the markets did today, so until I have a solid foundation on today's technical action, I have nothing to say... Yet...

For now, here's what occurred with my personal trading account today:

Stopped out of PCBC @ 2.06 for a -0.12, -5.5% loss.
Stopped out of RTK @ 1.75 for a -0.13, -6.9% loss.
Stopped out of OPXA @ 3.50 for a -0.58, -14.2% loss.
Added CEGE @ 0.34.
Holding SOLF overnight @ 6.06 per share.

As you can see, it was a LESS than stellar trading day - pathetic in fact. I'll be reviewing my market outlook for this week, my trades from today, and where I went wrong in my trading execution LAST week tonight via a Late Night Live Stream starting @ 10:30pm ET. Be there!

Have a fantastic evening until then.

Chart.ly Post Follow Up - Chart Bonanza!

2009-09-19T13:48:00.012-04:00

In relation to my Chart.ly post (seen HERE) from yesterday, I've decided to put up the best Micro/Small Cap technical setups I could find within the Financial, Healthcare, Technology, and Consumer Goods sectors. Below are seventeen (17) of the best tickers that are directly involved in one of these four (4) sectors - Enjoy:

CROX 3 Month, Daily

Short-term ascending triangle price pattern - watching for a possible decline IF the 10d SMA crosses above the 5d SMA.

** As seen on Chart.ly earlier this evening**

CZZ 3 Month, Daily

Very similar to CROX chart seen above, ascending triangle price pattern is prevalent - waiting for a possible retest of the ascending trendline if the 20d SMA doesn't hold.

SUSQ 9 Month, Daily

Short-term ascending triangle price pattern - waiting for a low volume distribution decline to the 6.10 price support OR the 20d SMA.

** As seen on Chart.ly earlier this evening **

ABK 6 Month, Daily

Short-term symmetrical triangle w/ declining overall volume - watching the SMA spread, as the 20d SMA is coming up to support the ascending trendline and the 5d/10d SMAs are giving off a mixed sentiment (Upside potential IMO is high).

GBE 6 Month, Daily

Egregiously large breakout on Friday with huge volume follow up - watching for a possible "Bump 'N' Run" to form within GBE's price action.

CT 9 Month, Daily
Great bull flag developing within the neutral flag price pattern - waiting to see if current price decline will hold the 20d SMA and the ascending trendline on decent volume accumulation.

FRE 6 Month, Daily
Flat base price pattern beginning to form on flat overall volume - watching for a possible 5d/10d Momentum Cross and a price hold on the ascending trendline.

CEGE 6 Month, Daily
Intermediate-term, tightening symmetrical triangle w/ low overall volume - waiting for price to break above or below the 200d SMA.
** As seen on Chart.ly earlier this evening **

GERN 9 Month, Daily
Short-term ascending triangle price pattern, holding 50d SMA resistance as well as the 7.43 price resistance - waiting for a high volume accumulation price breakout, overhead resistance at 8.00-8.25.

SOMX 3 Month, Daily
Symmetrical triangle breakout to the upside - holding 5d/10d/20d SMAs on a good amount of volume accumulation but staying within the confines of the short-term volume decline.

VICL 6 Month, Daily
Dollar decline from VICL's high two weeks ago on low volume distribution - waiting for the 5d SMA to cross below the 20d SMA in order to start VICL's price bottoming process.

EGLE 3 Month, Daily
Short-term ascending triangle price pattern w/ 2-Day, low volume distribution bull flag - 100d SMA holding the current price pattern in place, waiting for a break above this particular SMA to continue moving higher.

AAI 6 Month, Daily
Intermediate-term symmetrical triangle price pattern w/ mixed volume and a mixed sentiment within the 5d/10d SMAs - extra support with the 100d SMA propping up its current price action.

JASO 6 Month, Daily
Fantastic price increase over this past week with a good patch of volume accumulation - the ascending wedge's descending trendline resistance along with the 4.72 price resistance holdingJASO's price back with the 50d SMA keeping the price afloat (volume "tell" is KEY).

FRP 3 Month, Daily
Descending wedge price pattern on low overall volume - 20d SMA support price w/ a possible 5d/10d Momentum Cross w/ volume accumulation on the way.

CSUN 6 Month, Daily
Short-term symmetrical triangle inside of an intermediate-term neutral wedge w/ short-term overall volume decline - As if that wasn't enough to comprehend, I'm carefully watchingCSUN's 5d SMA to test the 10d SMA and hold its Momentum trend.
** As seen on Chart.ly earlier tonight **

SONS 6 Month, Daily
Textbook ascending triangle w/ a low volume distribution, high price decline - waiting for the ascending trendline and 20d SMA to hold as SONS' price support.

As you can see, even in an overbought market there are STILL technical swing setups that work. Continue to trade the setups that work and you won't even need to worry about what the market does in some cases. Keep your eyes on volume and the SMA action within these Micro/Small Cap names and you'll be good to go.

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday everyone!

MJTT Late Night Live Stream for 9/15/09

2009-09-15T00:41:00.004-04:00

Tonight's Late Night Live Stream dealt with my current Micro/Small Cap Top 10. I also talk about some technical strategies based off of the new volume we're experiencing in September and how to trade it accordingly. The video can be found in the On-Demand Library in the Menu of the MJTT Live Stream link:

http://www.livestream.com/moosejawjabbertechnicaltrading

The video is titled "Late Night Live Stream Special - Micro/Small Cap Top 10."

Enjoy, and good luck tomorrow!

For the Week Ahead - 9/14/09 to 9/18/09

2009-09-14T00:11:00.005-04:00

Good Morning MJTT!

I put together three things to look at this evening, as I feel all three will help all of you throughout the week. The first item is a conglomerate of Econoday.com Economic Data that outlines this entire week, the second item is a Prophet.net Top 25/Bottom 25, 10-Day Industry Rankings spreadsheet, and the third item is my Micro/Small Cap Sector Watch Lists. Without further ado, let's get started and check out the Economic Data spreadsheet:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tVDYRfylaHWlx06a6eItwmQ&output=html

If we start at the end of the week, the first thing we all should notice is that September's Option Expiration is a Quadruple Witching, making Friday a high-volatility day (because of this, one of my goals for this week is to be full cash by Friday). Wednesday and Thursday are our biggest Economic Indicator days and are also very crucial for the performance in the Oil and Natty Gas commodities during the back half of the week. I personally am anxious to see the Treasury International Capital statistic (Tuesday, 9:00am ET), as well as the Housing Market Index (1:00pm ET). To me, these two are very important Economic indicators; the T.I.C. measures what countries are buying our debt, while the Housing Market Index allows us to formalize an opinion as to how the Housing Market will fare this coming winter. With the /ES the way it's currently holding, I am guessing that many people are beginning to bet against the Economic data coming out this week.

Now let's check out the Top 25/Bottom 25, 10-Day Industry Rankings spreadsheet:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t2OY5nVNxgVEjnvqiGTvDXw&output=html

As you can see, the Top 25 industries from the past two weeks have truly been on fire - even the Bottom 25 industries were mostly break even. I've highlighted the following industries (yellow blocks in the spreadsheet) in order to point out their possible importance going into this week:

Silver
Farm Products
Semiconductor - Memory Chips
O&G - Equipment/Services
Electric Utilities
Diversified Utilities
Regional - Northeast Banks
Non-Metallic Mineral Mining

I'll go into more detail as to why I'm watching each of these industries as the week progresses. For now, just know that if the commodities continue their run, the market will continue higher (Silver, O&G - Equipment/Services, and Non-Metallic Mineral Mining). I still have faith in the Financial sector, as the technical setups are still there (Regional Banks). The only problem I'm currently seeing with all sectors and industries in them is the lack of volume that specific tickers are putting out - it's either weak accumulation or extremely weak distribution. In my honest opinion, it could go either way this week. As I stated in my Chart.ly post Saturday (found HERE), I am expecting a pullback.

Finally, let's wrap up with the screenshot of all of my Micro/Small Cap Sector Watch Lists:

http://chart.ly/vzegdr

I'll be doing a Top 20 Late Night Live Stream tomorrow evening after picking out the best twenty (20) tickers from these nine (9) Sector Watch Lists. Until then, good luck tomorrow and enjoy you Monday!

Position Update and Some MJTT Sentiment...

2009-09-10T21:17:00.004-04:00

First off, it's good to be writing on the home front again. My hiatus from writing on here occurred, but if you've been following me on Twitter, I've been doing projects outside of MJTT. As most of you know, I was on Happy Hour last Friday with The Davian Letter crew, I've been posting for the Chart.ly blog every Wednesday and Saturday, and just this week I've started up some educational videos in conjunction with FINZ.tv (Check out the first episode HERE). I've been honored to do all of these special things in the online stock universe, and trust me, there's still plenty of things to come!

Now to the trading aspect of things. Today was a rather large day for me, as I exited one (1) of my positions I've been holding and entered three (3) others. If you haven't been following me on Twitter, then today's your lucky day, for below this very paragraph is my current holdings as well as the tickers I've been in and out of since my "Cash and Blackjack" post. Enjoy:

September 1st: Added AMKR @ 5.63
September 2nd: Sold AMKR @ 6.18 for a +0.55, +9.77% gain
September 3rd: Added AVII @ 1.74 and EK @ 5.16
Today (September 10th): Stopped out of EK (Prematurely to say the least) @ 5.69 for a +0.53, +10.27% gain
Today (September 10th): Added PCBC @ 2.19, CPSL @ 2.70, and SOLF @ 6.06
CURRENT HOLDINGS: PCBC, CPSL, SOLF, and AVII

Today's action with tomorrow's outlook will be outlined in tomorrow morning's "Micro Take" on The Davian Letter, who will tweet the link when the article is good to go. For a specific take on one particular sector, please see my Chart.ly post from last evening HERE.

My sentiment right now lies within the final quote I have written in that Chart.ly post above. I have been giving a lot of thought to whether or not things really are any different this time around, and although there's a side of me that feels that substantial changes and pushes have been made to drive this market higher, there's a side of that feels it's all fake. I received some heckling last evening for my 3-tweet rant on my current belief of our current government administration. The tweets are quoted below:

"I don't get why everyone's watching [Obama's Healthcare Speech] - we all know [the Healthcare Bill] will be passed, and no matter how appalled we'll all be, it's gonna happen. Obama is f'ing this country, Free Enterprise, and Capitalism one "F" at a time. It all depends on whether or not us Americans will stand for what out Fathers before us stood for long ago. God Bless America everyone, this country kicks ass. Let us NOT forget what this country is based upon."

Ladies and Gentlemen, I may sound like a Conservative fool to some of you, a Confederate Flag-Waving Red Neck to a couple others, and possibly even a greedy, Capitalist bastard to a select few. The truth of the matter is that every single one of us, no matter how much we complain about the President and the Government, no matter how much we kick and scream about the tax rates, and no matter how much we hate the "other party," WE ARE ALL AMERICANS. I love this country more than any of you will ever know - the freedoms we experience in this country are astounding compared to some of the countries in this world. Our duty as Americans is to live our American Dream and to live that dream to its fullest capacity. We must NEVER forget what our Founding Fathers handed down to us, for they were the wisest men this nation has ever seen since its inception in 1776.

In conclusion to tonights post, I want to let all of you know that I'm going to blaring Bruce Springsteen, waving my country's flag, and loving everything about what this incredible nation has to offer throughout my day tomorrow. God Bless the United States of America, and God Bless every single one of you.

The Davian Letter Premier...

2009-09-06T19:19:00.002-04:00

On Friday of last week, I was on Happy Hour with Anthony Davian and the Davian Letter. It was an ABSOLUTE blast, and I thank Anthony for the option to do the Happy Hour session. The Happy Hour session is up on the Davian Letter and the link can be seen down below:

http://davianletter.com/tdl/2009/9/6

Expect a large "For the Week Ahead" post tomorrow evening. For now, enjoy the rest of your Labor Day weekend!

Live Stream Post...

2009-09-01T01:06:00.002-04:00

Happy September!

Thought I'd link the Live Stream site in a post, as I just finished up an analysis/review of the 20d15m $RUT and daily charts of some Sector/Industry ETFs. If you're not familiar with Live Stream, the way you get On-Demand videos is simple:

Click the "Menu" button located in the Live Stream video player.
Click "Browse On-Demand Library."
Pick a video!

Tonight's video was titled "Late Night Live Stream Special" and should be the first one to come up on your screen. Enjoy!

http://www.livestream.com/moosejawjabbertechnicaltrading

Catch all you sometime tomorrow... Good luck, and trade CAUTIOUSLY!

Today's Post...

2009-08-28T08:30:00.001-04:00

... Can be seen on Davian Letter by clicking on the link below:

http://www.davianletter.com/articles

The post should be up sometime in the next hour, so keep checking and enjoy!

I'm staying full cash going into next week, as I have no interest in getting into the Slap-Chop of Mother Market at this stage of the game. I think Shipping could catch some wind here (as seen in more detail in the DL Post), as well as some China trades, CAEI and the China Solars being my favorites.

For now, I'm going to finish my drive to Lehigh in tumultuous rain. I will attempt to pop in on Twitter as much as possible throughout the day, but I can't guarantee anything. Look for a post on the Chart.ly Blog tomorrow afternoon, good luck trading today, and as always, enjoy your Friday!

$ Cash Money & Blackjack $

2009-08-26T01:50:00.008-04:00

Good morning MJTT!

If you've been following my trades closely on Twitter and on iBC's Peanut Gallery comment wall, you know that I'm going into today's trading session unscathed and ready to sell. You see, from Friday of last week until now, I've been able to successfully turn over three (3) out of the four (4) stocks that I held over the weekend in Monday. Let's review what's happened on Monday and yesterday:

Sold CYTR @ 0.97 for a +0.07, +7.8% gain
Sold SPPI @ 6.80 for a +0.55, +8.8% gain (could have held it MUCH longer and been even more successful, but decided not to - a gain is a gain)
Sold COIN @ 1.40 for a +0.16, +12.9% gain
Sold AGEN @ 2.07 for a -0.09, -4.3% loss
Currently holding YRCW @ 1.98 into today's trading session with a stop/limit set for 1.85/2.25, respectively

My goal of cashing out my Wednesday is going to come true, as I will be manually trading YRCW until about 10:30am ET when I leave for the afternoon. Because I have a cash account, I have to wait three (3) days after I sell out of a position for cash to settle, and because I was 90% long going into this week, I have until Thursday before most of my cash is released. This, my good friends, is the meaning of the "Cash Money" portion of this post's very title. Not only have I done well this week through great execution, but I have also stuck to my goal(s) that I set for this week which makes me feel extremely comfortable.

There are two reasons as to why I want to be full cash prior to the opening bell tomorrow:

The Real GDP Report arriving at 8:30am ET tomorrow scares me to death.
We're getting technically chippy at the top of these indices.

With that being said, I move on to the numerical meaning of the "Blackjack" portion of this post's title and introduce to you twenty-one (21) tickers that still look technically solid. With the market the way it is, I will not be entering any new positions until I see the impact of Thursday's Economic Data. If I were to call an audible and get in prior to Thursday or at some point during Thursday's trading session, however, I would go to this list to find a ticker to buy. The alternate meaning to the "Blackjack" reference is the gambling and increased risk you're taking, betting on a sketchy Economic report that could make or break this market. Trade accordingly.

This morning, I split my charts up into sections, as I have some ETFs to help diagnose the state of individual sectors and industries. Let's start by reviewing the crazy action in the Health Care sector:

XLV 1 Year, Daily

Neutral flag breakout on Thursday of last week that continued to build strength into the weekend - Coming up on a crucial resistance (29.14) that could hold up the entire sector if it's not broken

ANPI 9 Month, Daily

Tightening symmetrical triangle on a total volume decline - Watch for some sort of "tell" going into today (5d/10d SMA cross, volume breakout, fundamental news, etc.) to determine future direction

ONTY 3 Month, Daily

Ascending triangle price pattern that's holding on extremely weak volume - Guided by the SMAs and the ascending trendline, ONTY looks ripe for a continued move higher

THC 3 Month, Daily

Tightening ascending triangle on low overall volume - Waiting for the 5d SMA to retest the 10d SMA in order to see some type of price movement; also looking for a continued hold in the ascending trendline

Let's switch over to the industry of which is my personal favorite, Shipping:

IYT 3 Month, Daily

Ascending triangle price pattern on low overall volume - Obvious breakout within the triple SMA combination, looking for 67.94 to break via a volume breakout

IYT 1 Year, Daily

Longer-termed scale of IYT - the missing piece of the Transportation puzzle is volume, and until we get some, Transportation is going no where

EGLE 6 Month, Daily

Descending wedge price pattern on a total volume decline - Continue to wait for a 5d/10d SMA Cross price pop, and watch to see if the price begins to anticipate the move by slowly beginning to push off of the ascending trendline

NM 6 Month, Daily

Ascending wedge, relatively choppy price pattern - Could be finishing up a two-day bull flag that will most likely give the price a base to move higher

Next, I want to review some Metal tickers that have a strong technical pattern whose fundamental background deals with mining a little bit of steel:

SLX 1 Year, Daily

The SLX must breakout above the 49.45 price level in order to continue higher - Watching for the triple SMA combination holds and hopefully bolsters the price of the SLX enough to push it through 49.45 and hold it throughout one (1) trading session

CPSL 9 Month, Daily

Ascending triangle price pattern, currently testing the ascending trendline and the 50d SMA in order to find support - Watch volume!

HL 9 Month, Daily

Choppy volume in the midst of an ascending wedge - watching for some interesting price action to the upside as the pattern tightens

PAL 3 Month, Daily

Low volume ascending triangle price pattern that's currently retesting the ascending trendline for support - Watch the 5d/10d Cross possibility, as this would confirm the coming of a high probability trade

Following the Metal tickers are the Technology tickers I had in mind:

XLK 1 Year, Daily

Above the 20.00 resistance in a total volume decline that looks quite sketchy - Look for the 20.00 level as a support AND as a resistance, as XLK could consolidate around this price level

CHINA 3 Month, Daily

Descending triangle price pattern w/ a fake volume breakout from Friday to Monday followed by a slight pullback in volume and price during yesterday's trading session - Watching for 2.50 to hold in order to hold any inclination of getting long

IO 6 Month, Daily

Ascending wedge that's being supported through the 100d SMA and the ascending trendline - Wait for either a breakout above the descending triangle or a continued consolidation throughout the pinch of IO's price action

Second to last, we move to the Financial sector to look at some Regional Bank tickers:

IAT 9 Month, Daily

Consolidation in between 20.00 support and 21.40 resistance - Great volume on yesterday's Doji day, looking forward to seeing where IAT goes from here

PCBC 6 Month, Daily

Ascending triangle price pattern with momentum beginning to develop via the double SMA combination - Holding ascending trendline well, would love to see some serious volume accumulation to support a move higher

SUSQ 3 Month, Daily

Neutral flag on a total volume decline - Watching the 20d SMA in order to support the two-day, low volume distribution bull flag that has been developing since Monday

Finally, we take a look at two of my favorite Retailers:

LEE 6 Month, Daily

Ascending triangle on extremely weak volume - Looking for volume accumulation to being building as well as a support base that holds the 20d SMA

PSUN 9 Month, Daily

Ascending triangle price pattern being supported by the 50d SMA and the 100d SMA on weak volume accumulation - Look for a gradual increase along the ascending trendline until volume begins to show signs of serious strength

Please don't forget the seriousness of the Real GDP Report. The tickers above are great tickers, but when the broad market begins to drop, not many tickers go up. Remember that full cash is always the exit strategy I take if I don't feel comfortable participating in the market, and trust me, it's never a bad thing to just sit on the sidelines and watch the game from the bench for a little.

Good luck during today's trading session!

Pre-Market 5

2009-08-25T08:41:00.004-04:00

Morning All!

Thought I'd put together a quick list of tickers that I like before the opening bell, so without further ado, let's hit the technicals:

AXL 3 Month, Daily

Classic bull flag w/ low volume distribution pullback - Looking for 5.70 to hold support

CERS 6 Month, Daily

Developing rounded bottom - Watch for total volume decline and consolidation around 2.07 until the ascending trendline and 20d SMA catch up with the price action

CHINA 3 Month, Daily

Volume breakout on a two day price pop - the descending trendline is still holding the price in check, but if volume accumulation persists, look for a price breakout as well (5d/10d SMA Cross)

CIT 6 Month, Daily

Mixed price around the 1.35 price level, total volume decline - Watch for consolidation around 1.35 if volume begins to get choppy (5d/10d SMA Cross w/ fast approaching descending trendline also something to watch)

HERO 6 Month, Daily

Ascending triangle price pattern still holding on a pick up in volume accumulation - Watch for the break above the 5.00 price level with momentum (5d/10d SMA Cross & volume accumulation) backing the pop

That's all for now all - Good luck during today's trading session!

For the Week Ahead - 8/24/09 to 8/28/09

2009-08-23T17:59:00.012-04:00

Good evening MJTT!

This coming week is going to be hectic for me, as my personal life begins to become more rigorous and I prepare to become a part-time trader again. This will NOT effect the blog much at all until January of 2010, and until that time, I have no interest in discussing the minor adjustments that will take place.

If you recall from last Friday's tweet, I'm sitting on five (5) positions going into tomorrow. Before we begin to review this week's Economic Data and MJTT Watch List Updates, let's go through the charts of my current positions to analyze why I'm still in them (entry price and projected exit price target on all charts):

AGEN 6 Month, Daily

Ascending triangle price pattern on extremely low overall volume - holding support @ the 50d SMA, watching the 5d/10d SMA cross for a price pop.

YRCW 9 Month, Daily

Symmetrical triangle price pattern w/ a 2-day bull flag developing on low volume distribution - a price pop is looking amazing for YRCW w/ a strong support @ the 20d SMA and the ascending trendline.

CYTR 6 Month, Daily

High probability trade if Health Care continues to break out, holding price support @ 0.86 - Looking for momentum via volume accumulation and a 5d/10d SMA Cross.

SPPI 6 Month, Daily

Another high probability trade if Health Care continues to break out - holding ascending trendline well w/ 50d SMA backing it up, looking for another heavy volume accumulation day tomorrow.

COIN 6 Month, Daily

Neutral wedge price pattern, very similar to YRCW setup - Needs heavy volume accumulation in order to get a break above 1.25

A lot of the trades I'm currently in are either because of a broad market outlook (the sector breakout in Health Care via XLV, for example) or high probability trades whose price patterns are by the book. Because of this criteria, I have high expectations for these trades, as they are setting up to return profits and not losses.

With the position update out of the way, let's get into the Economic Calendar analysis for this week:

Monday - Nothing of Interest
Tuesday - Standard & Poors Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00am), Consumer Confidence (10:00am)
Wednesday - Durable Goods Orders (8:30am), New Homes Sales (10:00am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am)
Thursday - GDP (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)
Friday - Personal Income & Outlays (8:30am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55am)

Although Consumer Confidence and Durable Orders are two important Economic indicators, the most important Economic indicator for a country is its GDP report. As seen in the list above, Thursday is the big day for the U.S. and will no doubt be a game changer with the current technical atmosphere being bullish. Real GDP Growth Quarter-Over-Quarter currently has an analyst estimate range of -1.6% to -1.0%.

As for the Sector Watch List Update, the Chart.ly link of all of the watch lists can be seen below:

http://chart.ly/a7h7gq

That's all for tonight everyone - Catch you during PreMarket!

This Morning's Post...

2009-08-21T03:18:00.003-04:00

... Can be found at the following link below:

http://www.davianletter.com/articles

I will shoot out a tweet in the AM when it's posted - Check in on it every now and then, for it should be up early in the morning.

Good luck to everyone during today's trading session!

UPDATE - This week's edition of "The Micro Take" can be found here at the link below:

http://www.davianletter.com/articles/2009/8/21/micro-take

Another little something special I have for you guys is this month's predictions about Gold and Crude Oil made by Adam Hewison from INO.com. Hewison NAILED the calls and I would bet is reaping some serious benefits from them - Check it out:

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/candlestickbook/?campaignid=3

Trade well today - the Micro tickers in my article are setting up!

Health Care STOCKS Ain't Nationalized...

2009-08-20T01:20:00.007-04:00

So what if our Health Care System is under fire by a President who is worse than that of James Buchanan (Pennsylvania represent)? There is no reason to rationalize your Health Care sector stocks, as the sector is currently in a neutral flag technical pattern that needs volume for a substantial breakout. Yesterday afternoon, I wrote a post describing my love affair for XLV, and my opinion has not changed from this post by any means:

http://blog.chart.ly/2009/08/19/sector-watch-wednesday/

XLE and XLB will be discussed Friday morning via "The Micro Take" on Davian Letter. This morning on MJTT, we'll be concentrating on a couple of micro cap tickers out of the Health Care sector that present interesting speculative and swing trades going into the latter of this week. First, let's review the XLV chart with today's final hours of trading involved:

XLV 9 Month, Daily

As seen in the chart above, the neutral flag is evident and is looking to breakout big time (testing the waters with the slight push above 28.16 into the close) - More volume accumulation is necessary to breakout in my opinion.

Technically, XLV has looked strong since the March bottom and has flagged on several occasions, only to breakout and make a move higher each time. In my opinion, tomorrow is the biggest day of the week for XLV, as it will either breakout and go higher or cool down and continue to consolidate within its neutral flag.

With the technicals of XLV in mind, let's check out a couple of micro setups that look promising going into today and Friday:

VICL 9 Month, Daily

(Swing Trade): The bull flag continues, but the strength of the Health Care sector and some volume accumulation out of VICL should allow it to breakout.

CYTR 6 Month, Daily

(Swing Trade): Found substantial support at 0.86, volume accumulation was weak yesterday - 1.05 still short term price target. [DISCLAIMER: I have a position in CYTR]

INCY 9 Month, Daily

(Speculative Trade): Ascending triangle price pattern breakout on Monday of this week, Bump 'N' Run setup from Tuesday action (restest of 6.03 price as support), and finally a big price gain yesterday - Will look at today's action for guidance as to where to go from here.

BCRX 3 Month, Daily

(Swing Trade): Good volume accumulation this week, looking for a breakout about the descending trend line resistance from the wedge price pattern - 20d SMA and ascending trend line acting as solid support levels.

ARIA 9 Month, Daily

(Speculative Trade): Developing bull flag but being held in check by the 20d SMA - Wait another day to see if ARIA completes the 2-Day Bull Flag Swing by testing the 2.00 price level on low volume distribution.

THC 1 Year, Daily

(Speculative Trade): Very similar to ARIA, watching for the 2-Day Bull Flag Swing to initiate during today's action - if no breakout occurs, watch for a continued low volume distribution price decline.

SPPI 9 Month, Daily

(Swing Trade): Retesting 6.00 price level as a support, watching volume and the 50d SMA to give me a "tell" as to when SPPI may be in for a big move.

OCLS 9 Month, Daily

(Speculative Trade): Similar to ARIA and THC, waiting to see a high price/low volume distribution decline in OCLS to confirm the 2-Day Bull Flag Swing - Held 20d SMA and descending trend line resistance quite well, looking for 5d SMA to cross above 10d SMA to indicate some type of momentum pop.

Keep your eye on the following things with the tickers above and you will successfully be able to initiate some winning trades from the Health Care sector:

Volume
The 2-Day Bull Flag Swing
5d/10d SMA Momentum Indicator
Support/Resistance levels

Good luck with today's trading session!

The Monday Evening Index Run Down

2009-08-18T00:39:00.008-04:00

Good Evening MJTT!

Welcome to the first post on the new and improved site! It was an exciting morning setting up the domain, picking out the template, and working with what to put on the site itself. The sidebar to the right of this post will look very similar, as it is nearly identical (minus the order) of my previous site's sidebar. The top of the site is different, as you can now go and search around the Twittersphere via my profile, BULLS on WALLstreet, and StockTwits. You can also search around the other sites that I write and do live videos for (Davian Letter, Chart.ly Blog, iBC, Live Stream, and Daily Markets). The box above the posts allows you to watch MJTT on Live Stream by going full screen and entering my mind as I show you charts from the market sessions on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays (with the exception of today which is rescheduled for tomorrow from 5:00pm ET to 5:30pm ET).

Two orders of business before I begin my Index Run Down deal with Ads and Sites for the new and improved MJTT. As you can see by snooping around, there are four (4) ad spaces that anyone can get from me in order to put up a cool ad about your site, business, or anything else stock related. The price for the ad space is still to be determined, but will be very affordable for anyone willing to purchase them. If you do not want to buy an ad, you can ask to be added to the "Noteworthy Financial Information Sites" on the sidebar to the right. Either way (ad or site request), please email me at zmoose12@mjtt.net to let me know what you're going to be doing.

On to the post! Today's action was pure craziness, as the $DJI dropped exactly 2% and the other indices followed suit. Tonight, I thought I would give you a little insight as to where we are on a couple of main indices using four (4) different time frames for each index - the 20 Day 15 Minute, the 1 Year Daily, the 5 Year Weekly, and the 20 Year Monthly. After each chart, I'll be reviewing the technical patterns and whatever else is on the chart in order for you to see what's going on and where we could go in the coming days, weeks, and months. Because of the time I've put into the index analysis, I will not be posting my Top 10 Micro Picks as I said I would (apologies). So, without further ado, let's get started on some index analysis, beginning with the $DJI:

$DJI 20 Day, 15 Minute

Bollinger Bands are tightening, as the $DJI is stuck in between a very tight range of 9125 and 9170 - Looking at the "Daddy Moose" trading guidance system below the chart, you can see that the Fast Stochastic's %K failed to break above the RSI(20) towards the close this afternoon, thus showing weakness in the short term.

PERSONAL BIAS - BEARISH

$DJI 1 Year, Daily

The Daily chart is very basic, as the $DJI looks as though it's beginning to develop a bull flag with support at 9026 - No moving average made any impact on this chart, and the ascending trend line will not hold a support unless the $DJI tanks to 8750.

PERSONAL BIAS - NONE

$DJI 5 Year, Weekly

The Weekly shows a double support (8878 and 9088) and a resistance at 9454 - the 20pd SMA matches the ascending trend line support well, therefore if the double support doesn't hold, the SMA/trend line support should.

PERSONAL BIAS - BULLISH

$DJI 20 Year, Monthly

The Monthly chart again shows a double support (8298 and 9043) and a resistance of 9785, with the 200pd SMA being broken last month - the 5pd/10pd SMA cross in equities normally brings on heavy momentum, but only after the stock pulls back; in the case of the $DJI, we're now in the "Pullback Stage."

PERSONAL BIAS - BULLISH

Let's move on to the $SPX, as it is the most similar to the $DJI:

$SPX 20 Day, 15 Minute

Very similar indicator reactions as the $DJI - 969 is the spot to watch if things get ugly, for if this level fails, we will see a continued 9 point drop down to 960.

PERSONAL BIAS - BEARISH

$SPX 1 Year, Daily

Today's big red day will be approaching the 943 price support, the 50d SMA support, and the ascending trend line support in the next couple of days if the $SPX continues to drop - the 943 to 1007 range could last for a while.

PERSONAL BIAS - BULLISH

$SPX 5 Year, Weekly

Four equally split price levels of importance (956 acting as support and 1044 acting as resistance with 869 and 1133 acting as outlier price targets) - the ascending trend line and the 20pd SMA hold significant support levels if the 956 price support doesn't hold.

PERSONAL BIAS - BULLISH

$SPX 20 Year, Monthly

Complete analysis of the last two recessions that directly impacted the $SPX - The $SPX chart is so mixed here that, when looking at the monthly, it seems as though we have no real direction at all. The 5pd/10pd SMA cross is throwing off pullback effects that coincides with all of the resistance pressure via the 200pd SMA and the 1015 price resistance, while the 666 bottom's ascending trend line continue to move the $SPX higher.

PERSONAL BIAS - NONE

The $COMPX is next, as we see our first major difference from the $DJI and the $SPX:

$COMPX 20 Day, 15 Minute

The $COMPX is currently sitting on its main support of 1931 as its Fast Stochastic %K indicator failed to break above its RSI(20), which is bad for the bulls - In my opinion, I think the $COMPX will continue to drop due to its numerous breakout failures (5 to be exact) around the 2015 price level. I believe this even if the $SPX and $DJI begin to find a bottom and hold their current levels.

PERSONAL BIAS - BEARISH

$COMPX 1 Year, Daily

The three support combination (price, SMA, trend) should be able to hold in the next couple of days - through a candlestick charting theory, I'm looking for a three day bullish reversal (Bullish Inside Up for all of you candlestick-ers out there) and a gap fill in order to continue our run higher and complete our correction.

PERSONAL BIAS - NONE

$COMPX 5 Year, Weekly

Tightening wedge price pattern within the Weekly chart of the index - the 1890 support and the ascending trend line support will be the deciding factor for where the $COMPX goes in the next week or two.

PERSONAL BIAS - NONE

$COMPX 20 Year, Monthly

The overall trend for the $COMPX is still descending, but the mixed sentiment we saw from the monthly chart in the $DJI is quite similar to this monthly chart - in my opinion, bullish momentum is still evident, but is short lived if volume doesn't keep up in this market and if the supports for the $COMPX do not hold.

PERSONAL BIAS - NONE

Finally, we'll review the $RUT and it's unique pattern, slightly different from the other indices:

$RUT 20 Day, 15 Minute

The current range for the $RUT is tight (545 to 552), but in my opinion, I can see a slight pop off of the open tomorrow because of the double bottom that developed over the span of today's session - "Daddy Moose" is bullish, as the %K has bottom and hasn't tested the RSI(20) yet.

PERSONAL BIAS - BULLISH

$RUT 1 Year, Daily

SMAs had no relevance when looking at the Daily chart, thus we are left with the support and resistance levels on the $RUT in order to make a decision as to where we may go in the future - 551 was broken today, leaving the $RUT with the 536 support.

PERSONAL BIAS - NONE

$RUT 5 Year, Weekly

To me, the Weekly is giving off impressions of a possible bull flag with 536 being the support level that should be held in the next few days if the pullback continues - the 20pd SMA and the ascending trend line are holding almost identical support levels that are approaching the declining price.

PERSONAL BIAS - BULLISH

$RUT 20 Year, Monthly

The overhead resistance above the 579 level is strong (20pd SMA and the 606 level), but the lack of momentum to move anywhere and consolidate in August seems to be setting up September for explosive action.

PERSONAL BIAS - BULLISH

Say what you will, but the charts don't lie - I call them how I see them, and at this stage in the game, it seems as though we're witnessing a pullback of epic proportions for future bullish setups.

Trade accordingly.

Quick Position Update (and Some Notes on the Side)

2009-08-14T01:39:00.004-04:00

Good Morning to all who are up at this hour!

This post is going to be a quick position update and some news about the future of MJTT. You can find my real market post for this evening on The Davian Letter under the "Articles" category some time later today. Let's get started with the position updates:

Sold JASO on Wednesday for a -0.59, -11.3% loss, as the company's revenues declined 65% for the 2nd Quarter of the year
Bought NG on Wednesday @ 3.74
Bought AGEN on Thursday @ 2.16

My target to take half of my NG position off will be 4.00, while my target for AGEN is the next resistance of 2.55-2.65.

Now let's move to information about this here site. I am currently blogging for three sites on top of this one, and I have created a schedule for how I will be blogging and vlogging starting next week. Check it out:

Sunday - I will be writing here and on iBC every Sunday evening.
Monday - I will be writing here and on iBC every Monday evening, as well as hosting a Livestream AfterHours Chat starting @ 5:00pm ET and ending @ 5:30pm ET.
Tuesday - I will be preparing a post for the Chart.ly Blog every Tuesday evening. The post will be up on Wednesday mornings and can be found here - http://blog.chart.ly/
Wednesday - I will be writing here and on iBC every Wednesday evening, as well as filming a Livestream Afternoon Review starting @ 12:00pm ET and ending @ 12:15pm ET (Sadly, this will only last until school begins again).
Thursday - I will be preparing a post for The Davian Letter every Thursday evening. The post will be up on Friday mornings and can be found here - http://www.davianletter.com/articles
Friday - I will be filming a Livestream AfterHours Recap starting @ 4:15pm ET and ending @ 4:30pm ET every Friday afternoon. No posts will occur either on iBC or on MJTT.
Saturday - I will be preparing a post for the Chart.ly Blog every Saturday morning. The post will be up in the afternoon and can be found in the Chart.ly Blog link seen above ^^

This is my weekly schedule until my lacrosse season starts next March. I will try to adhere to it as much as possible, but there will be some evenings I know I can't do anything about not blogging on here or on iBC just because of personal matters that are going on in my own life. Remember, I will be moving back to a Part-Time Swing Trader at the end of August when school kicks into high gear again.

Next order of business - MJTT has an office telephone! I've acquired a Google Voice phone number that I'm using as the business number, so from the hours of 7:00am to 8:00pm Monday through Friday and 10:00am to 5:00pm Saturday and Sunday you can reach me and ask me questions. The telephone number can be seen below:

(785)-205-MJTT or (785)-205-6588

Final order of business - I will be changing the site's web address over the weekend to www.MJTT.net and will be working with the design in order to make it look a little cleaner and a little more professional. You will be able to use the web address you've been using, as it will just redirect you to the new site.

That's all for this morning - I will be out for the entire day due to a Golf Tournament, so good luck to everyone during today's trading session!

When Dropped On Your Foot...

2009-08-13T01:48:00.004-04:00

Gold is the hardest of hard assets these days. The US Dollar Index (/DX, $DXY) has been crushing commodities over the past couple of days, Gold included. With that being said, Gold looks as though it may be setting up for a push higher based off of its technicals:

/YG 6 Month, Daily

An ascending trend line hold would be greatly appreciated.

The possibilities of this happening are high in my opinion, as I feel that with whatever way the market goes, Gold will follow the /DX and the /DX only. Inflation fears are still looming, and when the Healthcare talks get put on the back burner and people begin to realize that the US Dollar isn't doing well at all, I think we'll begin to see a big and quick push in the Gold industry.

With all of this to think about, I began looking at a couple of micro caps yesterday that I could possibly get into if their technicals provided me the proper criteria I was on the prowl for - a beaten up name that is holding support and looks as if it'll pop in the next couple of days. Just like that, I found NG:

NG 9 Month, Daily

Long term, ascending wedge price pattern, holding support @ the 3.65 price level and off of the ascending trend line - Watch 20/50d SMAs to act as dominant resistance.

Although it still seems as though there isn't enough volume under it, NG is my Micro spec trade when it comes to Gold. I'll be looking to add a couple of other names when my funds are released from the doom and gloom of the "Unsettled Cash" lot.

The other Micro trades I'm looking at that will be impacted by a pop in the Gold industry can be seen below:

NGD 6 Month, Daily

Ascending triangle price pattern on declining overall volume - Watch for support @ the 20d SMA, retest of ascending trend line unlikely (in my opinion)

SWC 9 Month, Daily

Two scenarios: Descending triangle with a double support (5.96 and 6.26), OR bullish flag with 20d SMA acting as support - All in all, need more volume accumulation for future price guidance

GBG 6 Month, Daily

Long term, tightening wedge with support @ 1.32 - Hanging on to the ascending trend line support well, watching for a possible pop and hold @ the 50d SMA

DNN 6 Month, Daily

Descending triangle on flat volume - First support @ the 100d SMA, watch for consolidation and a continued price pinch in between the 50/100d SMAs

As for the large cap Gold industry names:

NEM 6 Month, Daily

Short term descending triangle on flat volume - Watching for continued consolidation in between the 50d SMA (resistance) and the 200d SMA (support)

GOLD 1 Year, Daily

Long term ascending wedge with declining overall volume - Watch for a hold and a pop on heavy volume accumulation @ the 56.89 price support

GG 6 Month, Daily

Ascending triangle with overall declining volume - Watch for a parabolic bottoming process with the 100d SMA acting as a final support method to push the price higher

AEM 9 Month, Daily

Ascending triangle with heavy resistance @ 58.89 - Watch for a hold @ the 50d SMA

For now, a lot of these trades are purely speculative. I'm waiting for a couple of these tickers to develop more before I jump into them with two feet, hence why I'm not overflowing myself with Gold industry tickers just yet. Volume in a ton of these tickers are ridiculously weak (especially out of the micros), so keep your eyes peeled for some momentum shifts due to volume pops and price pattern (bullish flags and descending triangles) breakouts.

Good luck to everyone today!

Tuesday Tuesday, So Bad to Me...

2009-08-12T04:57:00.004-04:00

I made a terrible trade yesterday, as I got into ANPI off of their good FDA news that allows one of their subsidiary Pharmaceutical corporations a license to officially sell their drug. I did not look at my indicators, I did not run through my normal buying procedure, and I did not follow my rules. The trade ended up looking something like this:

With that being out of the way early this morning (taking a cute little 11% loss on a semi-large tester position), I kept on trading and, to my happiness, took away about a 7% gain in URRE. I then left my desk and took the rest of the day off to go to Hershey Park with the family. Although I enjoyed myself, I couldn't help but be pissed at the fact that I totally missed my opportunity in the ticker I've been hounding for about 2 weeks now - JAZZ. JAZZ exploded after hours due to a great earnings beat, but when I left my computer at 11:00ish, JAZZ looked like it was going to decline below my 5.76 neutral flag threshold. I, therefore, did not bite on the ticker, knowing very well that it was supposed to beat estimates after hours.

Tuesday is for certain a day I'd like to forget due to my royal suckage at trading on this dreary day. As for now, I leave you with a position run down of my trades for the past few days:

Bought JASO @ 5.24
Bought ANPI @ 2.04 - Sold ANPI @ 1.81 for a -0.23, -11.3% loss
Sold URRE @ 1.12 for a +0.07, +6.7%
25% Long, 75% Cash

Good luck today with all of your trading adventures.

NOTE: A separate post will be up in about an hour or so for the Chart.ly Blog that I am now doing a column for one to two times a week. This week's column deals with a comprehensive technical analysis of the Healthcare and Industrial Goods sectors and a few lookers in them. The link can be seen below:

http://blog.chart.ly/

Also, some new things will be occurring around here at MJTT - Stay tuned...

ALERT - Charting Storm About to Commence...

2009-08-11T00:13:00.008-04:00

A "National Financial Advisory Alert" just came out on MooseJaw Jabber: Technical Trading and is calling for some serious storms over on this here blog - Expect heavy amounts of charts, possible SMAs, and last but not least, some good ole' fashion technical price pattern analysis.

Before we begin reviewing my Top 22, let's run through today's market index action by taking a look at the $DJI, $SPX, $COMPX, and $RUT:

$DJI 10 Day, 15 Minute

$SPX 10 Day, 15 Minute

$COMPX 10 Day, 15 Minute

$RUT 10 Day, 15 Minute

First off, I used the 10 day, 15 minute time frame because it shows us a clean interpretation of what occurred during one market session without seeing intraday choppiness. When it comes to the indices, it seems as though the range on all of them are constantly getting tighter towards a main line of resistance. This indicates an ascending triangle price pattern, and this is normally bullish when you look at the overall trend of the equity (in this case, index) at a larger time frame (daily, or weekly).

Now that we know that we still have some juice left in the index engine, we can begin to check out the gamete of stocks I handpicked during yesterday's trading session. A lot of these are momentum trades that need volume, so patience is needed for a couple of these tickers. So, without further ado, let's check out my top picks:

PRGN 9 Month, Daily

Good volume push yesterday with a big price gain - the ascending triangle price pattern holds with 4.95 acting as the price resistance (let alone the only resistance as of now).

THC 1 Year, Daily

Flat volume with a consolidating price (Neutral Flag) - expect to see more consolidation until volume accumulation comes through the Healthcare sector as a whole.

MTXX 6 Month, Daily

Awesome trend breakout that did in fact break above 6.00 at one point yesterday but didn't hold (great day trading ticker) - All depends on if the PreMarket can do any justice for MTXX's price after earnings.

FLEX 1 Year, Daily

Great volume breakout with price trailing behind it - Once 5.77 is broken, FLEX should be off to the races for a little before pulling back.

VICL 9 Month, Daily

Major bullish flag with support @ the 3.30 price level and the 20d SMA - Very light volume distribution, watch for a clean hold of 3.3o before adding positions.

JAZZ 9 Month, Daily
Range trading (5.76 to 6.44) within a neutral flag - 5d SMA is twisting itself around the 10d SMA, leading me to believe a large move is on its way.

LVLT 6 Month, Daily
100d SMA and 1.18 price level were both held by the close yesterday - Waiting for a price reversal and a pop via the 5d/10d SMA momentum crossover on building volume accumulation.

HERO 9 Month, Daily
Ascending triangle price pattern holding with extra support held by the 20d SMA - 5d/10d SMA momentum indicator is stalling due to lack of volume!

CIT 6 Month, Daily
Watching for a possible breakdown back to the ascending trend line support due to the heavy amount of resistance and overhead CIT is currently experience (1.77 price level with a descending trend line resistance that are both holding, overhead being the 50d SMA and the 2.10 price level)

PKD 9 Month, Daily
Ascending triangle price pattern holding on an overall volume decline - Waiting for volume and a price pop, but until then, make sure it holds its price pattern.

DPTR 6 Month, Daily
Tightening wedge with directionless SMAs - Wait for volume for confirmation on a direction.

SWC 6 Month, Daily
Major bullish flag on an overall volume decline (not counting the earnings spike) - Watch where the 20d SMA lies on the chart in the next couple of days if SWC is still bull flagging.

EK 6 Month, Daily
EK is experiencing its second flag in the past two weeks - Could be slowly stair casing our way to the 4.57 price resistance (overheard being the 200d SMA)

AGEN 6 Month, Daily
Volume distribution began to build for the first time in two weeks as the short term ascending triangle price pattern continues to hold - watch for the 50d SMA to hold support as well.
SWHC 9 Month, Daily
Overall volume, yet again, in a decline - Wedge is holding up and attempting to find support against either its ascending trend line support or its 100d SMA support.

NG 9 Month, Daily
SLIGHTLY holding the 100d SMA and holding the long term wedge price pattern via the ascending trend line support - Be patient with NG, as it could breakdown as well with enough volume distribution under it and the metals.

CTIC 6 Month, Daily
Another tightening wedge with a directionless set of SMAs - Volume in overall decline.

BPOP 6 Month, Daily
1.76 resistance was held with a monstrous pullback to the old ascending triangle price pattern and the 20d SMA support - Holding price on lower amounts of volume distribution day over day, watch for how the candle pattern develops.

CPSL 6 Month, Daily
Holding its ascending triangle price pattern with the 20d SMA acting as a support just below the trend line support - watch volume!

HL 6 Month, Daily
Ascending wedge price pattern with volume distribution declining and the 20d SMA holding.

ANPI 6 Month, Daily
Ascending triangle price pattern beginning to breakdown a little (below 20d SMA) - This ticker is very speculative and has the highest probability of being unsuccessful.

PMI 6 Month, Daily
Held the 20d and 50d SMAs yesterday during its large decline and ridiculous price range - Watch for a continued pullback on lower amounts of volume distribution.

That's all for your PreMarket pleasures folks. I will be stepping out today at 12:00pm and will not be returning until later tonight with post in hand. Around 10:15am today, I'll be holding a LiveStream Early Morning Run Down to let all of you know what I'm looking at for today. MJTT's LiveStream channel can be seen either on here on the sidebar or at the link below:

http://www.livestream.com/moosejawjabbertechnicaltrading

Also, because I got swamped with things that are going on in my personal life, I will not be watching earnings for this week, and therefore, will not be putting out an earnings watch list. Sorry for any inconveniences!

Until the LiveStream my friends, enjoy PreMarket!

ZM

For the Week Ahead - 8/10/09 to 8/14/09

2009-08-10T05:13:00.003-04:00

Good morning MJTT!

Hope everyone is up and running, drinking your Red Bulls, and eating a hearty breakfast. For some odd reason (don't ask why) I have a feeling that this week is going to be a good one, starting off with today's URRE earnings which I am currently trading. The estimates for this company are disgustingly lowballed, and because of that, I feel that URRE can beat the street and possibly pull off a positive EPS. With that said, I will be prepared to high tail it out of that stock if the trade gets ugly. My other earnings trade for this week is JASO, who reports on Wednesday (August 12) of this week. Again, I'm trading JASO during earnings season because of lowballed estimates and because of their high probability to beat the street via revenues and operating income. I love seeing a company like JASO beat their operating income from previous quarters because these kinds of companies deal mostly with large inventory and bulk sales.

Let's get down to the information that comes with Sunday evening's/early Monday morning's posts. First off, I want to let all of you know that this post is ridiculously late because of Comcast's supposed High Speed Internet. It crashed on me around 1:30am, and because I couldn't reach the 24/7 Customer Service line, I decided to take my nap and get back to work later in the morning. Comcast, however, is not going to get off easy - they will be receiving a call from the House of Moose later today, and boy do I feel bad for that Customer Service Rep. All that put aside, the first information for this morning is the Economic Data (courtesy of Econoday) that comes out this week:

Monday: N/A
Tuesday: Productivity and Costs (8:30am)
Wednesday: International Trade (8:30am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), Treasury Budget (2:00pm), FOMC Meeting (2:15pm)
Thursday: Retail Sales (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Fed Balance Sheet & Money Supply (4:30pm)
Friday: Consumer Price Index (8:30am), Industrial Production (9:15am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55am)

As you can see from the above list, Friday is a HUGE Economic Data day. My goal is to be full cash by the end of Wednesday and to then wait patiently/trade speculative setups lightly so I don't get caught in the midst of a market tank if the CPI and Indu. Production aren't up to par with estimates. Remember, my strategy in over-run markets is to trade "Hit-and-Run Setups," "Extra Long, Developmental Swing Trades," and/or "Speculative Setups" with extreme caution.

The next bit of information deals with my sector watch lists. Throughout the day Sunday, I edited each sector watch list in order to get some new tickers flowing through them with better setups and more potential than some of the tickers already in the watch lists. The changes made can be seen in the link below:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tHhBw_05rhqxw-6kdMwvC1w&output=html

The finished products of the watch lists can be found in the picture below:

Sector Watch Lists (8-10-09 to 8-14-09)

The last piece of information I have for you this morning is the Top 25/Bottom 25 Industry Rankings (courtesy of Prophet.net) that can be seen in the link below:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tTI5WshDu-lXfJmQOEUHjEA&output=html

The highlighted industries are the ones I will be watching very closely. Take a look at the Bottom 25 and tell me what sparks your attention - for me, it was the Northeast Regional Banks. This tells me that the run in the Regional Banks, although extended, is definitely not over yet. Keep your eye on the tickers that haven't moved yet within the Regionals, for they could return a nice "Hit-and-Run" style profit to your portfolio. The Semiconductor and Biotechnology industries are the other two that I will be hounding like crazy this week, as both industries consolidated for the most part. I am looking for a pop out of a couple of tickers in these industries, so be prepared for me to talk a lot about Tech and Healthcare this week.

I must greatly apologize to all of you for not getting my earnings watch list out in time. I will have that ready for all of you tomorrow, meaning that there will be some tickers in my watch list that are bound to be reporting earnings. PLEASE check out Earnings.com before making any trades of tickers from my sector watch lists, as some of them could be looking great technically but could report earnings after hours Monday and get massacred.

Enjoy your morning, keep your eyes out for a post this afternoon, and don't forget to watch my man Jim Gobetz (@aiki14 on Twitter) at 8:30am this morning on StockTwits.tv!

So You Think...

2009-08-06T22:42:00.009-04:00

We're about to experience a major pullback.
Like those animals that like to eat honey and get stung by bees on a daily basis.
You should be short.

And so, with all of this said, you're obviously not looking at the indices on a smaller than daily time frame:

$DJI 10 Day, 15 Minute

$SPX 10 Day, 15 Minute

$COMPX 10 Day, 15 Minute

$RUT 10 Day, 15 Minute

Is there evident weakness in the $COMPX and $RUT right now? Of course there is. Is that something to trade cautiously? Of course it is. You can't, however, base all of your decisions off of the NASDAQ and the index that follows Small Caps. If you remember, earlier this week I was BEGGING all of you to watch yourselves when it came to a China-Tech breakout. China broke out, and Tech failed to do so. This means (and has meant in the past) that the markets normally experience a slight PULLBACK, not a major CORRECTION. The weakness in the $COMPX scares me, but it does not make me worry a large amount. Until we break down below the multiple support levels on the $SPX and the 555 spot on the $RUT, we are still in pullback mode - this allows you to cautiously trade tickers whose technicals still look like they could breakout.

With that being said, the following ten tickers are my favorite from a technical perspective going into the Employment Report tomorrow @ 8:30am - Enjoy:

NGD 1 Year, Daily

Ascending triangle price pattern, great volume breakout - Watch for continued strength.

HERO 9 Month, Daily

Potential "Bump 'n' Run" trade with overall volume decline - Watch for 4.25 price support, 50d SMA, and ascending trend line support to all hold on a continued pullback.

EK 6 Month, Daily

Bullish flag price pattern on low volume distribution - Watch for price and volume reversal.

ARM 9 Month, Daily

Bullish flag price pattern on low volume distribution - Watch for price and volume reversal.

ETFC 9 Month, Daily

Bullish flag price pattern on mixed volume - 50d SMA holding while 5d SMA and 10d SMA fight to see who will cross above who (Price consolidation)

HEB 6 Month, Daily
Short term descending triangle price pattern wiith heavy support around 2.00 - Watch for momentum shift (5d SMA cross above 10d SMA) amidst this low volume price pullback.

JAZZ 6 Month, Daily
Bullish flag price pattern on extremely low volume distribution - Expect continued consolidation until momentum in the Healthcare sector begins to pick up again.

LINTA 1 Year, Daily
Ascending triangle price pattern with a resistance breakout above 7.34 on a huge volume spike - Expect continued strength.

PRGN 9 Month, Daily
5d SMA cross above 10d SMA caused an intial pullback to the ascending trend line support, but expect the support to hold and some heavy volume accumulation to occur in the next week (Resistance @ 4.95)

JASO 9 Month, Daily
Tightening ascending triangle price pattern with resistance @ 5.55 - Soon going to explode with momentum if the 5d SMA crosses above 10d SMA and is followed by a volume breakout of its overall decline.

And there you have it folks, your top ten tickers going into tomorrow. Before I depart, allow me to grace you with a position update with some position charts:
Bought PCBC on Wednesday for a short term swing @ 2.36 - Sold out of PCBC on Thursday @ 2.56 for a +0.20, +8.5% gain
Sold out of RZ on Thursday @ 2.17 for a -0.09, -4.0% loss
Held on to TSTR and URRE (charts seen below)

TSTR 6 Month, Daily
MUST hold on to 50d SMA in order for me to continue to hold - Volume does not exist.

URRE 9 Month, Daily
MUST hold 1.00 price support or, preferably, the 100d SMA in order for me to hold on to URRE - Again, volume does not exist.

I will be traveling tomorrow, so unless my AirCard works on the plane ride back to Pennsylvania, I will only be on in little spurts during the trading day. I will be on during the open to manage my URRE and TSTR positions depending on what happens during PreMarket with the Employment Report. Enjoy your morning everyone!

ZM

Market Recap for 8/5/09

2009-08-05T23:11:00.002-04:00

Evening all! The wireless Internet here slowed my video productions down a bit this evening, but all is now well in the Missouri Apartment of Moose. Tonight's videos are split up into four sections, three of which are based around the discussion of certain stocks that I feel could have the potential to become big hitters if the NASDAQ breaks out and the rest of the indices follow suit. For now, enjoy the videos and have a wonderful evening:

Market Index Recap - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1RQ7BvoY2s
Market Indicator Recap - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrYlVXt53cY
Position Recap - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CU3dLOC1yfg
Stock Review: Part 1 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNmIMNmKbS0
Stock Review: Part 2 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fVzv2p1TeE
Stock Review: Part 3 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P421PUboK_I

Diamonds in the Rough...

2009-08-04T12:42:00.006-04:00

So you missed the run up to $SPX 1000 - you can't get into most positions without a substantial dip, and you most certainly cannot chase the "Runaway Train" style tickers. Now what?

This is where a lot of traders have a tough time diagnosing the markets. Over the past couple of months, I've learned that adding TINY tester positions (5% or lower of total capital in your account that you allocate to a position) end up being beneficial in two ways:

If the trade goes your way, you are free to add more with the base in the position that you've already built up.
If the trade doesn't go your way, you can begin to feel more comfortable about how certain tickers move so you can make a more accurate decision next time.

With that being said, I've uploaded twelve charts that I feel have the potential to become these tester positions in some of your portfolios. They're lookers for me, and I think they should be lookers for you as well:

JAZZ 6 Month, Daily

Bullish Flag - Watch it close for a breakout in either volume then price OR price then volume.

PCBC 6 Month, Daily

Wait for the 1.85 support to hit or for a breakout above the descending trend line resistance to occur.

HSTX 9 Month, Daily

Watch for the ascending triangle breakout on low volume accumulation.

GCI 9 Month, Daily

Bump 'n' Run - All eyes on 7.32

FCS 1 Year, Daily

Still consolidating (Bull Flag) within the 8.46 - 9.05 price confines.

IVN 1 Year, Daily
Low overall volume, consolidating in between 7.52 and 8.77 - Watch the recent flagging developments in IVN's candle formation

STSI 1 Month, Daily
Small time frame? Yes. Prepped for a breakout because of the possible shift in momentum from a 5d SMA cross above the 10d SMA? Possibly.

FCEL 6 Month, Daily
Ascending triangle price pattern support by 5d and 10d SMAs

FEED 6 Month, Daily
Developing Bullish Flag on low volume distribution - Watch for a pop if the 5d SMA bounces off both SMA supports (10d and 50d SMAs)

ETFC 6 Month, Daily
Eyes on how far the Bullish Flag goes. If it reaches the the ascending trend line support, I am expecting a pop - below that, the selling pressure will be nullified by the 50d and 200d SMAs

ARIA 6 Month, Daily
Floating around the 20d SMA, with the next support @ the 50d SMA and the ascending trend line - Watching for a dead cat bounce.

CTIC 6 Month, Daily
5d SMA cross above the 10d SMA is now active - Next that is needed for CTIC to move is volume, followed by a Pharma melt up wave.

Patience is a virtue folks, never forget it!

ZM

NOTE: The 10 and Under Stock Club will be hosting its second weekly TinyChat today after market hours from 5:15pm ET to 6:00pm ET - Look for the link to the chat at 5:10pm ET on Twitter!

For the Week Ahead - 8/03/09 to 8/07/09

2009-08-02T19:46:00.003-04:00

Evening all!

As all of you know, Sunday's are made of bullet points and quick information bits for the coming week. For all of my new followers and viewers that I've gained over this past week, Sunday's are filled with four sets of information - the Economic Calendar for the week ahead, the Top 25 and Bottom 25 industries over a span of 10 days, my Q2 Earnings Swing Trades for the week ahead, and any new watch lists that I've conjured up for the week ahead. This week, I have all four of the categories filled to the gills, so without further hesitation, let's get this stock market party started:

First, let's review the Economic Calendar (provided by Econoday):

http://mam.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=mam

Events that are most notable in my book have been broken down in bullet point form below:

Monday's ISM Manufacturing Index Statistics @ 10:00am
Wednesday's ADP Employment Report @ 8:15am, Factory Orders @ 10:00am, & EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30am
Thursday's Jobless Claims Report @ 8:30am, EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30am, & the Fed Balance Sheet @ 4:30pm
Friday's Employment Situation @ 8:30am

These statistics are most important in my opinion due to their market relevance and lack of "lag." You've heard many a time on CNBC that the Employment Situation is a, "lagging indicator," and to be quite honest, I can't disagree. When it comes to the IMPACT the statistic has on the trading day, however, I disagree completely. The market reacts based off of good news and bad news, and sometimes it acts off of no news at all. These Economic Statistics that appear in the front portion of a new month set the tone for how the month will go. With earnings on top of the data, this can completely reverse a market or swing a market into high gear. These statistics bulleted above have the largest overall impact on the market, and with that key concept in mind, you can make some serious money if you assess the data correctly and trade accordingly.

Next up are the new sector watch lists for this week:

Sector Watch Lists

This week, I've added the Services, Healthcare, Financial, and Consumer Goods sectors, fulfilling my goal of having a watch list for every sector (Basic Materials/Energy, Industrial Goods, and Technology were the watch lists created last week). Although I claim to have every sector accounted for, the Utilities sector and the Conglomerates sector did not make it through my screens because they didn't fit the criteria required. If you would like to see the criteria I used, please refer to the link below:

http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=sec_basicmaterials,sh_avgvol_o1000,sh_price_1to10,ta_volatility_mo5&ft=4&o=-volume

Following the new watch lists are this week's Q2 Earnings Swing Trades:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tnM1deKjpJNLEalOFW6bFng&output=html

Appearing a lot on this list are Basic Materials/Energy, Financial, and Healthcare tickers from the sector watch lists above. Because of this, I've based my industry watches from my Top 25/Bottom 25 list around this week's earnings:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t6sG6nZul2lLQbuOtCmm6eQ&output=html

My week this week will be different, for I will be operating out of a car during half of the trading day tomorrow and out of an apartment in Kirksville, Missouri until Thursday. Friday of this week I will be on a plane home, so I will be taking the day off that day if my AirCard doesn't work on the plane. I will be taking charting requests on Wednesday and Thursday evening, and don't forget about the "10 and Under Stock Trading Club" Chat that @copperstl (Leigh Jones), @jweaving (Jason Weaving), and myself (@ZMoose12) will be running every Monday from 4:15pm ET to 5:15pm ET. This hourly TinyChat session is a great way to spiffy up your technical skills - last week we ran through 30 charts in the matter of an hour! Be prepared to be inundated with some brilliant minds in the art of technical analysis and sentiment, for during the Monday night TinyChat's, we don't screw around!

I will be posting 10 Chart.ly Charts of the best Pre-Market setups tomorrow morning, so stay on the lookout from 8:30am to 9:30am ET for those. Until then, enjoy your evening everyone!

Top 5 Friday

2009-07-31T12:23:00.003-04:00

Afternoon Everyone! Seems as though the $RUT is in a consolidation within the intraday bounds of 559 and 560. Very tight and very boring, with the $TRIN flat above 1.20 and the VIX chopping like Chef Ramsey making salad. In the event of an EOD market reversal where the $RUT takes weekend longs (myself) out to dry, I will be watching the 555 level to hold up strong.

As for now, let's take a look at five of my favorite tickers for the day that could develop into something gorgeous next week. Below are charts with a tiny analysis bit for each ticker:

URRE 9 Month, Daily

Imminent B/O out on the way w/ volume accumulation - Keep your eye on the 100d SMA and the 1.00 support.

TSTR 9 Month, Daily

Another imminent B/O on more volume accumulation - Watch for the 5d SMA to cross above the 10d SMA for a big momentum swing confirmation.

SOLF 9 Month, Daily

Holding the 50d SMA to a "T" as well as the 6.93 price support - If this hold continues and solar pops, SOLF's first resistance is 7.50.

SAY 9 Month, Daily

Up against the 200d SMA and the 5.49 price resistance - IF AND ONLY IF the 200d SMA is broken will this ticker explode (Target @ 7.00)

DPTR 9 Month, Daily

Slow developing, long term descending triangle - Watch the 5d SMA cross above the 10d SMA for a momentum spike.

These names, if their price patterns hold and they develop fully into what their trend is currently showing, these five can be prosperous. Be light with your position sizes if you're considering to add them and hold them into the weekend - Remember, I am always more risky than my advice, hence why I'm taking TSTR and URRE into the weekend with me.

Stay nimble on this Friday afternoon my friends!

Position Update for 7/30/09

2009-07-30T11:02:00.002-04:00

As most of you know, we busted out big time this morning on most of the major indices. So I don't repeat what The Warmaster @ iBC said, you can read his analysis at the link below:

http://ibankcoin.com/chart_addict/2009/07/30/neutral-range-btfo-key-day/

And now for the position update:

CAEI @ 2.12 (Target @ 2.50)
RZ @ 2.26 (Target @ 2.50)
URRE @ 1.05 (Target @1.25)
HEB @ 2.34 (Target @ 2.85)
TSTR @ 1.42 (Target @ 1.60)

I will actually be creating a post this evening of chart setups I like if the rally continues and if the rally fails. Keep your heads on swivels everyone!

Hump Day Mid-Market Recap for 7-28-09

2009-07-29T11:47:00.002-04:00

It's been a flat day so far with some steam picking up with the bears in the last hour. I for certain see consolidation in the near future. The $RUT has found a nice bottom over the past 5 days at around 545, so be wary of that number when trading small and micro cap tickers.

Good luck for the rest of the trading session, and use the 1d1m VIX for reversals today! The categorized video links can be seen below:

Market Index and Indicator Review - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOFBYA1wGrA
Dollar Index, NYMEX Crude Oil futures, and Gold futures Analysis - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhxA9c-BhNE
ETF/iETF Analysis - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NN0pfnxtJ8
Position and Stock Analysis: Part #1 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SChzSKFiRaE
Stock Analysis: Part #2 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njVoShRuBYk

NOTE: Videos #2 and #5 are blurry for some reason - I will correct that for next Wednesday!

Chart City!

2009-07-28T11:07:00.007-04:00

Consolidation is becoming more and more of a possibility if the four main indices (the $RUT, $SPX, $COMPX, and $DJI) don't continue to breakout above their current levels. I'll be posting charts of all four of them this evening on here on multiple time frames so everyone can get a little piece of where my mind is with this consolidation talk.

This is what we're looking like so far indicator wise:

5 Day, 10 Minute charts for both the $TRIN and $VIX are showing an intraday terror, as the $TRIN is in decline with the $VIX beginning to spike and bottom out. Over the next couple of days, you need to watch where the $VIX goes in relation to the $TRIN - If the $TRIN stays flat and the $VIX keeps increasing, we're not going down the crap shoot fast by any means. This is one of my supports for my consolidation theory.
$DVOL to $UVOL ratio has been showing a slight bearish edge all day, but not by much - We've been fluctuating between 1 and 1.5, so watch for big volume spikes to determine a reversal in today's dip.

Looking at today's commodity crunch, Gold futures and NYMEX Crude Oil futures are both in decline with the U.S. Dollar Index finding support @ 78.38. In order to visualize this, I've put together charts of these three commodity guidance tools:

/DX 6 Month, Daily

/YG 6 Month, Daily

/QM 9 Month, Daily

On to today's watch list:

PCX 9 Month, Daily

USU 1 Year, Daily

DPTR 9 Month, Daily

URRE 9 Month, Daily

TIE 9 Month, Daily

NXG 1 Year, Daily

ATPG 9 Month, Daily

KEG 9 Month, Daily

NG 9 Month, Daily

TTI 9 Month, Daily

CPSL 9 Month, Daily

RZ 9 Month, Daily

TSTR 9 Month, Daily

PWAV 9 Month, Daily

LSI 9 Month, Daily

EMKR 6 Month, Daily

FCS 1 Year, Daily

SOLF 9 Month, Daily

Two momentum trades that I'm checking out can be seen below:

HEB 9 Month, Daily

SBUX 1 Year, Daily

If you're interested in trading the two earnings picks for AH today and PM tomorrow, feel free to check out the Q2 Earnings Swing Trade spreadsheet. Up to bat today are THQI in AH today and HL in PM tomorrow:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t8DVeLsnVgr6lllvI58EsKg&output=html

That's all for now! Heads on a swivel and watch for consolidation indicators.

DON'T FORGET - "10 and Under Stock Trading Club" is having a TinyChat today at 4:15pm ET and will be hosted by Leigh (@copperstl), Jason (@jweaving), and myself (@ZMoose12). Be there!!

Mid-Market Recap for 7/27/09

2009-07-27T12:03:00.005-04:00

Quick Indicator Hints for Today:

Watch the $TRIN - It's all over the place today, but is nailing reversals on the $RUT and $SPX today.
The VIX is bottoming out - A parabolic bottom is developing in the VIX around $23, meaning that the volatility has a possibility to be more prevalent this week. To me, this indicates we're going to begin to consolidate.
Volume is thin and even today - The UVOL to DVOL ratio has stayed between 1 and 2, while the overall volume is light.

And now to the charts. The following are prospective tickers that I'm looking to get into this week:

URRE 9 Month, Daily

CAEI 9 Month, Daily

LSI 9 Month, Daily

IVN 1 Year, Daily

EMKR 9 Month, Daily

RZ 9 Month, Daily

DPTR 9 Month, Daily

The next two charts are of volatile solar companies that, if solar continues its run, I would like to get into on a pullback:

CSUN 1 Year, Daily

SOL 9 Month, Daily

The last three charts are tickers that report earnings in either AH today or PM tomorrow:

PCX 9 Month, Daily

MTW 9 Month, Daily

UIS 1 Year, Daily

That's all folks. Good luck into this afternoon!

Let's Talk Strategy...

2009-07-27T01:11:00.004-04:00

As all of you know, over this long weekend I've been making adjustments to the way I trade. This time around I cannot take much credit, for this adjustment was brought to me by two fantastic traders that know a ton about the market and how it rolls. Leigh Jones (@copperstl) and Jason Weaving (@jweaving) were the two masterminds behind the new strategy I have chosen to take with this hectic market, and I thank them for helping me thus far.

The strategy is based around momentum-driven, small cap stocks below $10. Finding tickers like this by yourself is difficult, so in order to find them, I used FINVIZ.com screens. As seen in the screen below, the screen limits used are Price, Average Volume, and Volatility:

http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=sec_basicmaterials,sh_avgvol_o1000,sh_price_1to10,ta_volatility_mo5&ft=4&o=-volume

This is an actual screen I used to find Basic Materials/Energy sector stocks. From this list, I then chose 25 of the best technical patterns from the 37 tickers available. I've also used this setup for the Industrial Goods sector and the Technology sector for this coming week. By the time I'm finished developing this strategy, I will have a watch list for each sector. For now, however, I'll be using these three sectors in order to see if the strategy works based off of the way I trade and the way I asset manage.

The watch lists for this week are as follows:

Basic Materials/Energy, Indu. Goods, and Tech Sector Watch Lists

With the new trading strategy, I've also instituted a new set up for the way I trade earnings. I've taken the tickers that report earnings in the three watch lists above and have incorporated them into my earnings strategy, thus creating a double the money scenario that I can trade earnings off of - $10 and under stocks with high volatility, momentum swings, and an average volume over 1M that can now work as a ticker to trade and a ticker to swing into earnings with. This means that I will be working with fundamental information with the grouping that reports earnings this week in order to land some big earnings swing trades. The list of tickers that report are seen in the Q2 Earnings Swing Trade spreadsheet below:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t8DVeLsnVgr6lllvI58EsKg&output=html

That's all for the strategy talk! This week's Economic Data is seen in the link below:

http://mam.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=mam

Without question, the two biggest things that come out this week are Durable Goods Orders on Wednesday and GDP on Friday. Both of these things will be able to determine the direction this market goes in the next couple of weeks, thus predicting the outcome of how the rest of this earnings season will go. I will look further into these two statistics come tomorrow, Tuesday, and Thursday.

I hope everyone had a lot of time to reflect and enjoy the week that was. I personally don't feel that this rally can continue like it did last week for much longer without a substantial pullback, so keep your head on a swivel and watch where your market indicators guide you. See all of you during PreMarket soon!

Market Recap Videos for the Week of 7/20/09 to 7/24/09

2009-07-25T17:04:00.004-04:00

Good Afternoon everyone!

Hope all of you are having an enjoyable weekend spending the money you made on the crack market this week. As a way to remember the week that was, I have made a collection of seven (count them, SEVEN) market recap videos for everyone to analyze and think about during this weekend. Enjoy:

Market Index Review - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLylI7mqep0
Market Indicator Review - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nXFsBGw20Y
Dollar Index, NYMEX Crude Oil, and ETF/iETF Analysis (Part 1) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFRRJ7QOC5s
ETF/iETF Analysis (Part 2) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bwhpndUtwY
ETF/iETF Analysis (Part 3) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YafTfyafwoQ
Stock Review (Part 1) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-rnr3MI7GQ
Stock Review (Part 2) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6S-J9aI3Adw

Enjoy the rest of your weekend everyone!

Full Cash, Anyone?

2009-07-23T16:13:00.002-04:00

Yes. It was to be done by the end of this week, and it has been written. I am now full cash and ready to assess the situation I've developed for myself. I'm surviving, yes, but took a hit today in a market that was coked up Scarface-style. I bit the bullet this time because I've drifted away, yet again, from the strict rules I've set aside for myself. I took a day off Tuesday to attempt to get my, "Market Qi," back on track. It was a nice day off, but I did not take a "day off" per say. It was a rest, have you.

And now I sit in a position of my want and desire to eat an entire can of whoop ass and throw it at someone who isn't looking. The past two weeks I've been "off." I've been thinking about how I can make my trading grow and develop, I've been considering new strategies, and I've officially deemed myself burned out.

But why? Look at the market! And plus, you've been doing fine - your statistics (minus today) have shown that you've been working your way up and making some solid gains, cutting your losses to tiny ones. I, however, do not enjoy my strategy that I have developed, and this weekend, I will be changing it for the better.

Friday evening will be a video post. Saturday evening will be a day of thought and development at the House of Moose. Sunday will be the post explaining to all of you my new plan of attack on this here stock market. For now, I leave you with a position update:

Stopped out of SNDK this morning @ 16.41 for a loss of -1.84, -10.08% [Position size was 18% of my cash basis]
Stopped out of CIT this afternoon @ 0.74 for a loss of -0.17, -18.68% [Tester position - 6% of my cash basis]
Sold out of JASO @ 4.75 for a profit of +0.05, +1.06% [Position size was 18% of my cash basis]
Sold out of AMKR @ 5.89 for a profit of +0.34, +6.13% [Position size was 18% of my cash basis]
Sold out of NVAX @ 3.22 for a loss of -0.14, -4.17% [Position size was 18% of my cash basis]

I am 100% cash. It's time to wipe the slate clean.

Position Update for 7/23/09

2009-07-23T09:12:00.002-04:00

This will be the only post within 30 minutes of and during the trading day because of my schedule being absolutely nuts. Watch out for consolidation around these levels, for I think it's going to get choppy due to the lack of volume we've had throughout the week. This is how earnings season normally is, so be ready to do abnormal things in order to work with the abnormal circumstances.

On that note, my current positions all have 10% stops (approximately) for today only because of my absence:

SNDK - Position @ 18.25, Stop @ 16.40
JASO - Position @ 4.80, Stop @ 4.25
AMKR - Position @ 5.55, Stop @ 5.00
CIT - Position @ 0.91, Stop @ 0.75
NVAX - Position @ 3.36, Stop @ 3.00

I'm interested in seeing how these hold up for me today, especially in the tech names I have positions in. Good luck to everyone, and enjoy your day!

Afternoon Update for 7-22-09

2009-07-22T12:54:00.003-04:00

Hope everyone is banking coin and working through the choppy market thus far! I have prepared a four video, afternoon update for all of you, so enjoy the vids and have a fantastic afternoon:

Index and Market Indicator Overview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPBGdEA62WY
Position Run Through and Watch List Overview (Section 1): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPY-Rvt0fVQ
Watch List Overview (Section 2): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hoi67_NdQLM
Earnings Preview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZrFa-eFIeCw

Q2 Earnings Swing Trades Through Friday

2009-07-22T07:48:00.003-04:00

I must tell you something that you may not like to hear but must be let told anyway:

I don't have a spreadsheet for the rest of the week's Q2 Earnings Swing trades.

Because of the ridiculously cheap sites out there that do not update their earnings until a week later (www.earnings.com), I have been "back ordered" on certain tickers' estimations and actuals for their EPS statistic. Although I have the thinkorswim Desktop Trading Platform, I have been trying on the Internet for so long that I feel quite defeated and lackluster about another attempt at creating an earnings spreadsheet for this week. Instead, I bring you the good ole' manual way of setting up Q2 Earnings Trades - enjoy:

Wednesday, 7/22/09 (After Hours)

AF (+0.08) - Savings and Loans
ETFC (-0.33) - National Investment Brokerage
EBAY (+0.36) - Catalog/Mail Order Houses
ISIL (+0.15) - Semiconductor, Broadline
JAH (+0.55) - Housewares/Accessories
LOGI (-0.20) - Computer Peripherals
NE (+1.57) - O&G Drilling/Exploration
SNDK (-0.17) - Semiconductor, Memory Chips
STLD (-0.12) - Steel/Iron
TCK (+0.36) - Industrial Metals/Mineral
TEX (-0.28) - Farm/Construction Machinery

Thursday, 7/23/09

AMP (+0.57) - AH - Asset Management
T (+0.51) - PM - Domestic Telecom Services
BNI (+1.01) - AH - Railroads
CELG (+0.46) - PM - Biotechnology
CENX (-0.82) - AH - Aluminum
DO (+2.62) - PM - O&G Drilling/Exploration
EXP (+0.25) - PM - Cement
FLIR (+0.35 - PM - Scientific/Technical Instruments
HERO (-0.20) - PM - O&G Drilling/Exploration
HBAN (-0.18) - PM - Regional Banks, Midwest
IBKR (+0.31) - AH - National Investment Brokerage
WFR (+0.00) - AH - Semiconductor, Integrated Circuits
MSCC (+0.19) - AH - Semiconductor, Integrated Circuits
MSFT (+0.36) - AH - Application Software
NEM (+0.46) - PM - Gold
NOC (+1.29) - PM - Aerospace & Defense Products/Services
OXY (+0.80) - PM - Independent O&G'
PMCS (+0.10) - AH - Semiconductor, Integrated Circuits
R (+0.37) - PM - Retail/Leasing Services
SPF (-0.15) - PM - Residential Construction
SPWRA (+0.14) - AH - General Contractors
TMO (+0.66) - PM - Scientific/Technical Instruments
WTNY (-0.19) - PM - Regional Banks, Southeast
WGOV (+0.37) - AH - Industrial Electrical Equipment
XRX (+0.11) - PM - Business Equipment
BIDU (+1.43) - AH - Internet Information Providers

Friday, 7/24/09

ACI (-0.06) - PM - Industrial Metals/Minerals
ASH (+0.91) - PM - Major Diversified Chemicals
BDK (+0.37) - PM - Small Tools/Accessories
DOV (+0.46) - PM - Diversified Machinery
EXC (+0.97) - PM - Diversified Utilities
FO (+0.62) - PM - Home Furnishings/Fixtures
IR (+0.39) - PM - Diversified Machinery
SLB (+0.63) - PM - O&G Equipment/Services
TROW (+0.35) - PM - Asset Management
WL (+0.09) - PM - Regional Banks, Mid-Atlantic

That's all for now! Stay tuned for an afternoon update video post. Also, pay close attention to this week's EIA Petroleum Status Report coming out TODAY @ 10:30am. In my honest opinion, I think today's report will be the biggest for the big oil companies due to their short term, parabolic bottom.

Good luck on this fine, fine Wednesday!

Afternoon Update

2009-07-20T12:02:00.003-04:00

Afternoon all! Today's Afternoon Update is going to be a video update, but before I give you the link to the video, I have a couple of notes that are imperative to read if you're trading today:

Volume is VERY thin and has been all morning, even with the bulls having the advantage.
The VIX is flat and has been since July 15.
The $TRIN, although above the volatile level of 1.00, is in a 5 day wedge excluding today's random spike to 2.36.

Today's earnings articles are also important to look at if you're considering swinging into the following companies:

CAT upgraded - http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSTRE56J33I20090720
FRC solid Quarterly Cash Flow fundamentals - http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:FRX&fstype=ii
WU deal with FITB - http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090720005082&newsLang=en
BTU upgraded - http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20090720&id=10157446

That's all for news and market indicators. Enjoy the video, and good luck this afternoon:

http://www.youtube.com/user/MrZMoose12 (Afternoon Updates #1 & #2 for 7-20-09)

For the Week Ahead - 7/20/09 to 7/24/09

2009-07-20T04:43:00.009-04:00

As the sun rises and my eyes close, I have created the files necessary for you for trade succesfully this week and with ease. Because of my lack of sleep and strenuous hours thus far, I haven't finished my earnings document and have only gotten to Wednesday (I will complete Thursday and Friday tomorrow evening). For now, I give you the Economic Data, the Top 25/Bottom 25 Industries, my two swing trading watch lists, and of course, my earnings picks. Enjoy:

Economic Data

Monday: Leading Indicators @ 10:00am

Tuesday: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales @ 7:45am ; Redbook @ 8:55am

Wednesday: EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30am (Bernanke is also speaking to the Senate Banking Committee regarding our Monetary Policy @ 10:00am)

Thursday: Jobless Claims @ 8:30am ; Existing Home Sales @ 10:00am ; EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30am ; Fed Balance Sheet/Money Supply @ 4:30pm

Friday: Consumer Sentiment @ 9:55am

Top 25/Bottom 25 Industries (10 Day Time Frame)

The spreadsheet with the chosen industries for this week can be found at the link below:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tpR39Iv8w3qIOnfIHsipiIA&output=html

Weekly Watch Lists

The watch lists this week are based off of the highlighted indsutries seen in the link above. These industries were also chosen based upon the type of companies that are reporting earnings for this week and the impact that those companies will possibly have on that particular industry at hand. The companies on the watch lists below have a minimum of 1million shares traded on a daily basis, thus being high-traffic stocks:

Swing Trading Solo Watch List

Investment Opportunities Watch List

Q2 Earnings Watch Lists (Monday - Wednesday)

For now, I only have the screen shots of the watch lists. In my Afternoon Update for tomorrow, I will be adding the estimates for Monday's after hours reports for the tickers on Monday's watch list. Tomorrow evening, however, I'll be setting up a spreadsheet that will make life easier and show estimates and when the company reports (Date and Pre-Market/After-Hours). The screen shots of the watch lists can be seen below:

Q2 Earnings - Monday (7-20-09)

Q2 Earnings - Tuesday (7-21-09)

Q2 Earnings - Wednesday (7-22-09)

That, my friends, is all for now. It's time to get some rest before this market goes crazy over the CIT news, so prepare yourself and DO NOT get caught with your pants down. REMEMBER: Earnings Season is a different market!

Position Update

2009-07-17T12:11:00.004-04:00

This is going to be rather quick, but it's to let all of you see what I've been doing in my portfolio over the past two days:

Dropped last half of HERO yesterday for +0.54, +16.36% gain. The average total gain for the HERO trade was +0.46, +13.94%.
Added JASO @ 4.70 and AMKR @ 5.50 at the close yesterday.
Dropped ABX this morning @ 34.20, closing the position for a +1.45, +4.43% gain.
Holding JASO and AMKR into the weekend.

With my recent trading action, my exposure has changed a significant amount. I am now 32% long (all of which is out of the Semiconductor sector) and 68% cash.

Because I am holding JASO and AMKR over the weekend, I've decided to map out what I'm looking at via technical analysis and why I have confidence in these two positions (along with the rest of the Semiconductor sector). Let's review JASO first:

JASO 6 Month, Daily

As seen in the chart above, JASO is currently experiencing a bit of a breather today at the halfway mark of the trading session. JASO, however, has a ton of security support wise when discussing where its simple moving averages (SMAs) are on its chart. It's SMA prices on the chart are as follows:

50 Day SMA = 4.40
5 Day SMA = 4.36
20 Day SMA = 4.34

Not only does it have SMA support padding, but in case it breaks through all of these supports today, it also has a price support @ 4.26. I've chosen JASO to hold over the weekend due to its stability (for once) and because of the strength of the $COMPX.

The same scenario goes for AMKR as well:

AMKR 1 Year, Daily

AMKR's support came right when the price of the stock double bottomed @ 4.28. The 50d SMA at this point in time held AMKR in place and, when the momentum in the stock picked up, volume accumulation skyrocketed and sent AMKR's price with it. It's currently being driven by the $COMPX momentum and the 5d SMA, thus I'm holding AMKR over the weekend due to its strength.

Trust me, there are plenty of other Semiconductor names that I would have added yesterday (MRVL, WFR, SNDK, MCHP), but I limited myself to two tickers so I wouldn't overexpose myself both on the long side and on the technology side of the markets. With all of this being said, I am still sketched out with what next week brings. Thus, I will be trading the market this afternoon with extreme caution.

Two things to look at going into the 3:00pm volatile time are:

Volume
VIX

Keep an eye on your V's and you're afternoon will be a breeze! Enjoy the rest of your trading day everyone.

Afternoon Update for 7-16-09

2009-07-16T12:31:00.005-04:00

It's been a consolidation day for the $SPX thus far as it lingers around the ever so important 930 level. A break below this level on considerably bearish volume would be the only thing that would make me nervous:

$SPX 30 Day, 60 Minue

The DVOL to UVOL ratio has been ranging from 1 to 3 throughout the trading day with the bears in the lead, however, with the extremely low volume printing for the bears, "they go nuthin." The VIX is weak today, while the $TRIN spiked early this morning but to no avail as it has continued to decline since.

Quick tickers that I like from this morning's action are as followed in chart form:

BGG 1 Year, Daily

KGC 1 Year, Daily

CCC 9 Month, Daily

SPWRA 9 Month, Daily

SD 9 Month, Daily

CENX 6 Month, Daily

CDE 9 Month, Daily

DRYS 6 Month, Daily

That's all for now. To give all of you a heads up, I MAY be purchasing some GOOG at the close in order to make some quick cash... I think everyone and their mother knows that GOOG has the operational trends to beat earnings - it just depends on how badly they are beaten. Have a good afternoon and a good rest of the trading day all!

Hump Day Virtual Market Recap for 7-15-09

2009-07-15T12:44:00.008-04:00

This evening, I've done things a little differently, as you can see with the YouTube link below. Because Blogger has a 100MB sizing limit, they ended up being way to small for here. So, to fix this issue, I've posted the videos under my YouTube site that can be found below:

http://www.youtube.com/user/MrZMoose12

And there you have it! The videos will take place of my post this evening. This is how I will post every Wednesday night, thus beginning the brand spankin' new, "Hump Day Virtual Market Recaps." Whenever you want to view these and it's not a Wednesday, the link to the new YouTube site will be on the right side bar directly below the "MJTT on Twitter" widget.

Enjoy your evening everyone!

Let's Talk Econ...

2009-07-15T05:20:00.003-04:00

As I said in Sunday evening's market overview post, Wednesday would be my biggest day of the week due to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Industrial Production statistics coming in on that day. Before I begin with my economic rant, let's take a look at how the Q2 Earnings Watch List is doing since we created it Tuesday morning:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t0ozCXSzToTooMaDuouFqYw&output=html

As seen in the spreadsheet, Tuesday's Q2 Earnings Swing Trades were 3/5 technology, 1/5 financial, and 1/5 industrial production. All outperformed the market (whether or not GS's explosive estimate beat was for real or government sponsored), and all out performed the analyst expectations big time. As most of you know, INTC's revenue statistics beat estimates by $800M ($7.2B expected, $8.0B actual), but for AIR, ADTN, and ALTR, the statistics were solid as well:

AIR raked in an egregious amount of cash flow from the last fiscal year ($113M) and watched defense sales increase 7% from last year's Q2.
ADTN's cash position declined a little in order to make room for more long and short term investments (both of which increased in value). Because of this statistic and the performance of the investments, ADTN brought in a 67% net income off of their investments (approximately $1.01M more than last year) for a 3 Months Ended period.
ALTR's sales increased by 6% from last quarter ($279.2M), while net income increased 7% from $44M to $47.4M from last quarter as well.

Technology seems to be the hot "commodity" very early in this earnings season, so in my eyes, I would be running screens of tech stocks that have enough cash to last them a lifetime and who are still slowly building their company back from their personal recession woes.

Moving to the Economic Data, I've added Econoday charts below in order for you to visualize what's currently happening with the CPI and the Industrial Production statistics:

Consumer Price Index (Month-Over-Month)

Consumer Price Index (Year-Over-Year)

Index of Industrial Production

Capacity Utilization Rate

Each chart tells its own tale. Starting with the month-to-month CPI, one of the major things that has been discussed by analysts that has the potential to raise the CPI is food prices (due to the weakness of the dollar and its inflationary deficiency) and gasoline prices, which can be seen in the weekly price breakdown spreadsheet below:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tj6sGfeZZb3u6hXIP-wLFtQ&output=html

Although there was a month-to-month bounce for the CPI in June, this price index has a long way to go in order to get back to sustainable economic levels, as outlined in the year-to-year CPI chart.

Industrial Production wise, it's obvious that the price has been contracting less and less each month. Since my Manufacturing/Construction bottom call mid-April, the Capacity Utilization Rate (the statistic that shows what it takes to keep our nation's factories open) has continued to parabolically bottom, which proves to me that my bottom call is developing into a decent call.

With all of that being said, my estimations for the CPI is a little lower than the analyst expectation (my guess would be 0.5%), a little higher than analyst expectations for the Industrial Production statistic (-0.5%), and right on the money with the analysts for the Capacity Utilization Rate (67.8%). The question as to why the Industrial Production statistic has such a big impact on me is labeled with the simple answer of, "Because of what's in my watch lists." In order to make this more clear, let's take a look at what will be impacted by a good or bad Industrial Production report in my two watch lists:

Swing Trading Solo WL

SPWRA
PLD
TITN
BGG

Investment Opportunities WL

Even though six tickers doesn't look like a lot, 13% of my two watch lists combined makes up companies from the Industrial Production sector. I added my REIT picks for the week (PLD and ARE) into the mix because they are based around industrial real estate. Because of the demand for building and renovating on industrial real estate land plots takes other companies from the Industrial Production sector to do work on the piece of real estate, the REIT picks should move with the Industrial Production statistic when it is released at 9:15am today.

Good luck with today's trading adventures, and enjoy the tech boom from INTC's good after-hours earnings report last evening! I will return with an afternoon update post around noon.

The Moose's Monday Market Review

2009-07-14T01:23:00.009-04:00

Today's trading session was interesting, to say the least. Although the overall performance of the $DJI, $SPX, and $COMPX were all positive by large margins, there were some laggards in the bunch - and on decent volume, mind you. The final UVOL (10.55 million shares) to DVOL (1.05 million shares) ratio came in at 10 to 1, which is the biggest difference I've seen in the UVOL - DVOL correlation since I've been home from Spain. As seen in the two charts of the $SPX below, the short-term technicals are bullish:

$SPX 5 Day, 10 Minute

$SPX 60 Day, 60 Minute

The intermediate and long term perspectives, however, still look considerably bearish:

$SPX 1 Year, Daily

As traders, it's imperative that we remember what kind of short-term bull we might end up grabbing by the horns. This market has just entered the facade of the 2nd Quarter's earning season, and with earnings season comes volatility. Along with volatility comes unnecessary momentum within industries that could be doing so poorly it's laughable and yet, the industry is driven higher "overbought" style all because of one company who reports incredible earnings for the quarter.

With that being said, and without delay, I present to you the Q2 Earnings Watch List in full detail:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t0ozCXSzToTooMaDuouFqYw&output=html

My final topic for tonight is my research into the EUR/USD and how the UUP and UDN have been trending along side of it. For the most part, the Euro has been trumping the Dollar since March and hasn't let up just yet. The long term trend is an ascending trend that, if hit upon, would cause the EUR/USD to hit approximately 1.36. The short term trend, on the other hand, is a downtrending wedge that continues to tighten. Below, I have added the EUR/USD chart as I have explained it above:

EUR/USD [Bid-Based] 1 Year, Daily

The following charts are the daily time frame charts of UUP and UDN:

UUP 9 Months, Daily

UDN 9 Months, Daily

These charts are all well and good, but what impact will they have on the market during Q2 earnings?

In all honesty, I don't believe they will have an impact during earnings season for the sole reason that earnings season is a "fake" market. Earnings season is based off of momentum, and with momentum comes volatility after the momentum has finished driving the stock into the ground or propelling it up through the roof. The Dollar's correlation with the Euro will continue to grow in my opinion, causing commodity stocks to rule the international markets yet again. With that said, if the dollar begins to take precedent and a new wave of deflation sets in (which is highly unlikely due to the current government spending frenzy), then the Basic Materials folks, myself included, should keep their eyes peeled for a collapse throughout most metals. Until the wedge's in the UUP, UDN, and short-term EUR/USD are completed and a side (bullish or bearish) is chosen, we will not have a "true" market direction.

I now leave you with my personal favorite statistics chart of the day - the Federal Budget Balance for June:

Federal Budget Balance (June)

Don't you just want to give your state's Congressional leaders a hug after seeing this? Truly heartwarming.

NOTE: I will not be home from 9-11am tomorrow morning because of personal matters. Therefore, my market hours for tomorrow have changed to 12-4pm.

Afternoon Update for 7-13-09

2009-07-13T11:45:00.008-04:00

Market made an enormous reversal around 10:10am and hasn't stopped going up since. My holdings have already been changed because of the action this morning:

Added HERO @ 3.30
Stopped out of SSG @ 35.50 for -1.65, -4.44% loss
Holding DUG @ 22.18 and ABX @ 32.75 without stops

Charts for this morning are interesting, as there are many swing trade setups that could be bought. I added HERO in order to hedge my DUG position even more and because the chart is currently showing a high probability breakout:

HERO 6 Month, Daily

As promised, I've updated the SLX and KOL charts. SLX is looking a lot healthier than KOL, but both still have a ways to go in order to be ready to buy:

SLX 9 Month, Daily

KOL 9 Month, Daily

Other noteworthy tickers for the afternoon technical update include the following:

CDE 9 Month, Daily

CCC 9 Month, Daily

KGC 9 Month, Daily

LXK 1 Year, Daily

GBX 6 Month, Daily

GLD 6 Month, Daily

CENX 9 Month, Daily

Updated position charts can be seen below:

ABX 9 Month, Daily

DUG 9 Month, Daily

That's all for now! The Earnings Watch List will be up tonight as well as an in-depth oil analysis that was supposed to be out last Friday but was not completed due to the TweetUp and continued time off (yes, I am lazy). Good luck for the rest of the day, be PATIENT, and watch your four indicators:

UVOL
DVOL
TRIN
VIX

For the Week Ahead - 7/13/09 to 7/17/09

2009-07-12T03:47:00.008-04:00

Good Morning Everyone! Hope you all had a great weekend, and for those of you reading this that were at the TweetUp on Friday, I had an absolute blast! It was a pleasure to meet every single one of you, and I'm glad to have talked with all of you face to face about the crazy market that we're currently trading.

This post is bullet points because I'm running on two hours of sleep (ChartAddict and Jeffrey Lin, where you guys at to poke fun!!). Before I go back to my slumber to catch three and a half more hours, I'll be posting a conglomerate of information that will be necessary for all of you to know coming into this week. So, without futher ado, let's get to the market overview:

Economic Calendar

Monday - Treasury Budget (2:00pm)

Tuesday - Producer Price Index (8:30am), Retail Sales (8:30am), Business Inventories (10:00am)

Wednesday - Consumer Price Index (8:30am), Industrial Production (9:15am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), FOMC Minutes (2:00pm)

Thursday - Jobless Claims (8:30am), Treasury International Capital (9:00am), Philadelphia Fed Survey (10:00am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Housing Market Index (1:00pm), Fed Balance Sheet & Money Supply (4:30pm)

Friday - Housing Starts (8:30am)

Earnings Calendar

Monday - FAST (PM, +0.33), CSX (AH, +0.62), NVLS (AH, -0.39)

Tuesday - ALTR (AH, +0.16), GS (PM, +3.48), INTC (AH, +0.08), JNJ (PM, +1.11), YUM (AH, +0.43)

Wednesday - ABT (PM, +0.89), CTAS (AH, +0.37), GCI (PM, +0.36), GWW (PM, +1.14), XLNX (AH, +0.19)

Thursday - APH (PM, +0.42), BAX (PM, +0.94), BIIB (PM, +0.96), GPC (PM, +0.62), GOOG (AH, +5.06), HOG (PM, +0.25), IBM (AH, +2.02), JPM (PM, +0.04), MAR (PM, +0.21), PBCT (AH, +0.06), PPG (PM, +0.76)

Friday - BAC (PM, +0.25), BBT (PM, +0.21), C (PM, -0.31), FHN (PM, -0.32), GE (PM, +0.23), MI (Unknown, -0.69), MAT (PM, +0.01)

NOTE: There are more companies that I will be trading that report earnings this week. The earnings watch list will come out tomorrow night, for I didn't have the time to put that together this weekend.

Portfolio Update

ABX @ 32.75
DUG @ 22.18
SSG @ 37.15

Weekly Watch Lists

Swing Trading Solo Watch List

Investment Opportunities Watch List

My watch list rationale for this week is based around the spreadsheet seen in the link below. The spreadsheet includes the Top 25 and Bottom 25 industries ranked by percentage performance over a 10 day period. The highlighted industries were the industries I chose to follow this week via companies within the industry that I have in either the Investment Opportunities WL or the Swing Trading Solo WL. Enjoy:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tVTVO25jIATa0XWVQ23QE_A&output=html

Because of my large bias towards Industrial Goods, the biggest day for my watch lists this week is Wednesday because of the Industrial Production statistics that are coming out at 9:15am. I will be posting a special post Tuesday evening that is based upon these statistics, and I will be making predictions for where I expect the statistic to come in.

Another industry I'm watching closely this week for a potential pop is steel. I will be posting updated versions of SLX and KOL this afternoon, but for a brief overview, I chose SLX and the steel industry because it's beginning to dip closer to the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern I warned all of you about last Sunday. This time, I'm telling you to begin LOOKING (not BUYING) at cash riddled steel companies that have the potential to do well during this earnings round and that can weather the storm of the next leg down if it occurs.

That's all for now! I will be updating MJTT mid-afternoon with a technical analysis post. Enjoy your PreMarket, and I'll catch all of you on Twitter in the next hour or so.

Afternoon Update

2009-07-09T10:33:00.006-04:00

Good afternoon all!

This post will be concise and to the point so I can get off to my lunch break and then back to work. Before I summarize the morning we just had, allow me to grace you with my losses and new adds for this week:

Stopped out of SNDK @ 13.05 for a -0.79, -5.7% loss
Holding ABX @ 32.75 with a stop @ 30.70
Added DUG @ 22.18
Added SSG @ 37.15

Although I am somewhat upset with SNDK getting stopped out, I have moved on from my ball-in-corner-crying mindset and have decided to put the money I had left from that trade and buy SSG. But what is my trading rationale with regard to SSG? Why did I choose it, and why should you? Let's take a look:

SSG 3 Month, Daily

Although the volume isn't the best, SSG is the inverse ETF for the Semiconductor industry. With solar about to drop alongside oil, SSG is your best bet to get an edge on the short term semiconductor destruction.

With that being said, the following tickers are tickers to watch when the Semiconductor industry begins to reverse from its bearish decline:

JASO
LDK
SOLR
SOLF
SPWRA
STP
SOL
ENER
LSI
MCHP

Moving on, I've chosen ABX (Barrick Gold Corporation) as my bullish position because of the feeling I have in the future of gold. I've slapped together a comparison chart of GLD and USO to show how you would have done over a two year period if you would have invested in both of these ETFs at the same time. Let's check it out:

GLD - USO Comparative Analysis (2 Year, Daily)

As you can see, the GLD path over a two year period of time was the path that lost you no money. Oil over the past two years has become ridiculously volatile, and is a place where a ton of money can be made and lost. From a security standpoint during declines like the one we're about to experience, however, I prefer gold over oil because of the lack of volatility within the hard asset's industry.

But Musso - out of ALL of the companies that are based around gold, why did you choose ABX? Let's break it down technically:

ABX 1 Year, Daily

Technically, I've chosen ABX because of the one year trend seen in ABX and the pinch it's currently experiencing against its 39.10 resistance price. Fundamentally, I've chosen ABX because it was one of the lower priced, larger capped corporations that has done well over the past year within the gold industry. Weathering index declines like the one we're experiencing is one of ABX's fortes.

That's all for now. This morning has been nothing but a thin volume, choptastic, lack of conviction morning. I'm preparing myself for what lies ahead of us and I'm not looking back at the things I've done wrong. I'll be writing a post this evening that deals with the current oil atmosphere and when it may be a good idea to begin dipping back into the oil names. For now, I'm sticking with my DUG position and allowing it to build over the course of a week or so. This length of time is not a normal swing trade for me, and I am treating this position with the utmost care. To be quite honest with all of you, I'm not surprised that the NYMEX Crude Oil price is doing what it's doing so far during this boring trading session.

Until later...

Recap Reschmap

2009-07-06T23:38:00.005-04:00

There's nothing to say about today, except of course if you enjoy stating the obvious by exclaiming that the Energy and Basic Materials sector decided to take a leap of faith and die a horrible, painful death... For the short term, at least.

Come on people!! If you honestly think that those incompetent monkeys on CNBC that get on the tube and say ridiculous things like, "Adding something from the Energy sector is a sin," are intelligent, then you are quite mistaken. Do yourself a favor and follow the steps below:

Get a Twitter account
Find my account - ZMoose12
FOLLOW THE PEOPLE I FOLLOW AND GAIN A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MARKET KNOWLEDGE

I am SO sick of people that think they run show on Mother Market on television: Jim Cramer, Dennis Kneale, most of the female anchors on CNBC (minus Maria Bartiromo), and plenty of other morons. I'm not a genius, I'm not a professional analyst, and I am not an economist, but I know a thing or two about running your mouth when you should be keeping it shut (Charlie Gasparino, that's you big guy).

But enough of my raving. I've come to the conclusion that we're on the last leg of a developing head and shoulders price pattern within the $SPX on an hourly time frame. There are two ways to look at this head and shoulders price pattern, however, as there is a short term pattern and an intermediate term pattern. Let's breakdown both perspectives for this specific index:

$SPX 20 Day, 60 Minute (Short Term Perspective)

$SPX 6 Month, Daily (Intermediate Term Perspective)

We'll see if the short term $SPX perspective will hold tomorrow, for if there's a pop in the markets off the open with a strong $UVOL presence, be prepared to push the 923 level by the end of the week. If there's a failure to do so and we remain in the 888 - 897 $SPX range, then feet don't fail you now and don't let the door hit you on the ass on the way out to a full cash position (unless you feel the urge to go short). Also, if volume is light tomorrow and the market ends like it did today with oil finding support either through it's ascending trend line or through the $61 price, then another day is needed to test the short term $SPX perspective. All in all, time is a necessity to tell the direction of this here market.

My final lesson for this evening is the potential to begin moving into gold again as a hard asset, inflation hedge. I say this because I feel that in order to get out of this current $SPX chop-slumpiness, we need hard assets to drag us out and the dollar to inflate like a balloon, only to deflate later in the fall when oil begins to really push the envelope and drive it's price through the roof with coal, natural gas, and alternative energy to follow suit, respectively. Because of this theory, I present to you GLD:

GLD 3 Month, Daily

With the possible double bottom being exposed, the next thing I'll show you is the trade I'll make if this GLD double bottom holds true:

ABX 1 Year, Daily

As it holds its ascending trend line to the "T," I will wait patiently for a push towards higher prices in ABX so that I don't get caught in a trade I don't want to be in. Until then, sit on your trigger fingers and don't press the BUY button on that computer monitor.

That's all for tonight. I leave you with an updated version of my current holdings and a swell good evening. See ya'll during PreMarket!

Portfolio Holdings

Stopped out of JASO @ 3.96 to take a -0.44, -10% loss.
Added SNDK @ 13.84

Mid-Day TA

2009-07-06T12:08:00.005-04:00

The morning has been choppy, as the $SPX has shed about 5 points and the $RUT about 7 points. Looking over my notes from this morning, I have noticed that most of the tickers on the Swing Trading Solo watch list broke down below their respective support level or trend line. I've been hunting for dip buys all morning, and was extremely patient for my SNDK add @ 13.84. I am still holding JASO @ 4.40 with a stop @ 3.96 (10%).

I found a couple of tickers that seem to be setting up to move higher, so check out them out below and decide for yourself:

BGG 9 Month, Daily

SSRI 9 Month, Daily

SNDK 6 Month, Daily

FCX 9 Month, Daily

DRYS 9 Month, Daily

CAT 1 Year, Daily

The question I see fluttering around Twitter is when to dip back into the Energy sector. In my opinion, it's when /QM reaches $61:

/QM 9 Month, Daily

Take it or leave it, oil is one of the main components running the stock market as we speak. Having the entire Energy sector behave this way is extremely harmful to the intermediate term health of our stock market. I fear what kind of effects the new Energy Bill going through the Senate will have on our economy if passed.

A wrap-up post will be up later tonight. Keep your head on a swivel, for the trading day only gets more volatile as it goes along!

Let's Get Back to Business

2009-07-03T23:41:00.006-04:00

Hope everyone enjoyed their July 4th weekend and didn't do anything like this guy did:

Let's get back to business, though, shall we?

Since Thursday of last week, I've been itching to get back into charting and company analysis. This weekend was my first time using FINVIZ, and to all beginners using this screening system, it is the best thing since sliced (and buttered) bread. I will tell you now that FINVIZ saved me at least four hours of work and allowed me to find better companies and better results than the StockHacker service found in the TOS Trading Platform.

The tickers I'm presenting to you this week via the Swing Trading Solo watch list and the Investment Opportunities watch list are tickers that deal with the following sectors and industries. Under each category (sector or industry) will be a list of tickers that are in one of the two watch lists I have put together for this coming week. Before I disclose which watch list they're in, I want you to know where I'm looking and why. Some of the tickers seen in the "industries" category could be listed in the "sectors" category but have been singled out due to the importance of the industry they are in. Enjoy:

Sectors

Basic Materials - SSRI, GSI, AKS, CENX, AA, X, ABX, FCX

Energy - WMB, FTO, SE, SD, CRZO, SFY, MEE, SGY, CVX, EXH

Utilities - DUK, NRG, EQT, PEG

Services - HPY, DRYS

Technology - DELL, LDK

Industrial Goods - CWST, SPWRA, CBI

Industries

Semiconductors - JASO, SOLR, SOLF, AMKR, SNDK, ENER

Farm & Construction Machinery - MTW, TEX, CMCO, CAT, BUCY,

Diversified Machinery - BC, BGG, FLS

I have singled out the Semiconductor and Machinery industries in order to show you that these are the two industries that I found to have the best technical setups coming into this week. There are a lot of price and trend supports being held and I have a high conviction that if tech explodes, the Semiconductor industry will be the ones behind the madness. Solar corporations are one of the leading front runners for Obama's new Energy Bill, and if this bill gets passed by the Senate, say good night to the Energy sector for the short term time span. With that being said, I have tickers from the Energy sector up above just in case the reverse of my thought process occurs. If this is to happen, the tickers above are the ones I'll be dipping into.

Another good thing is to keep your eye on the Basic Materials sector. Seeing that the technical rally from the beginning of March until the beginning of May was lead by metal tickers, I'd want to have a close leash on these names that have taken a breather and are prepped to explode when our stock market comes to its senses. The tickers above encapsulate the following metals in order for you to diversify your portfolio via the Basic Materials sector:

Silver
Steel
Iron
Aluminum
Gold
Copper

Utilities are your safe bets that rarely increase at extremely large rates. The utility companies seen above deal with Gas and Electric utilities, again being safe "government" trades that you can sit on for a while if you catch them at the right time. In my opinion, I'd wait for the tickers above to experience a clean breakout before swinging into them full force.

The watch lists for this week have been adjusted to the tickers above. Enjoy:

Swing Trading Solo Watch List

Investment Opportunities Watch List

If I wake up early enough, I will be adding a couple of Pre-Market charts to the blog in order to show you a few of my favorite setups from the 43 tickers above. One ticker that I will be keeping my eye on all week is Alcoa [AA], for they report earnings on Wednesday. Another ticker I will be watching is Chevron [CVX], for they will be reporting an interim report on their earnings this Thursday (their official earnings date is July 31).

Things that I saw towards the back end of the week that was are as follows:

Since June 4th, the UUP - UDN correlation has been ridiculously choppy. As most of you already know, the UUP - UDN correlation will continue to dictate the markets until the dollar collapses and inflation invades our economy or the dollar strengthens and allows our economy to crawl back into another deflationary vortex.
GLD and the 100 oz. Gold SPOT have also been choppy since the beginning of June after declining from almost reaching new highs. GLD has been a dud trade, and anyone who has been attempting to trade within GLD's current price range (90.00 to 93.00) is having a hell of a time doing so. Until the US Dollar moves, however, we will not be able to witness a firm direction in the price of GLD and the 100 oz. Gold SPOT.
KOL and SLX (both of which I will be watching very closely this week) have seemed to form a short term head and shoulders price pattern. I will post charts either on here or on Twitter tomorrow morning. Watch a continued dip in coal and steel tickers, and be cautious with individual companies within these industries!

As for now, I leave you with the sound of your wife/girlfriend/dog/pillow beckoning you to your slumber. Catch ya'll tomorrow during Pre-Market!